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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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17 Feb, 8 tweets, 3 min read
938 positive swabs, up[ ass usual on Tuesday but 86% of last Wednesday, continuing the pattern of very much reduced rate of decrease. Positivity at 5.5% slight improvement on yesterday but still too high. At this rate 14 weeks to get under 100 a day /1 Image
Average positive swabs of last 3 days is 785, 87% of the same days last week. At that week on week rate
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This rate of decrease is again similar to that of Northern Ireland which for the last couple of weeks has also had a very similar 7 day incidence rate - perhaps for once we won't be in a situation with radically difference rates each side of the border /3
You can see the 3 day average in comparison with the same 3 days last week climb over the last 5 weeks. Thats why it will be May rather than March before we go under 100 a day. Too many workplace outbreaks including more big meat plant ones taking place due to lockdown-lite /4 Image
The analysis from yesterdays positive swab data still holds - indeed as time passes then resumption of close contact testing explanation become less convincing & role of B117 in seeding larger outbreaks than before more likely
Misleadingly low #Covid19Ireland 650 cases notified this evening, there are 250+ waiting to be notified unless something odd has happened. Those cases are 65% of last Wednesday but the swabs were 86%. The news that #B117 now makes up 90% of cases is inevitable bad news /5 Image
The 99% of cases being B117 yesterday suggests that the older forms has been suppressed to under 100 a day however the B117 form has only been halved in absolute terms in 6 weeks. That 35% improved fitness means opening anything is very risky as it grows much faster
Paul Reid has said that 68% of positive test results last week came from close contacts at todays HSE press conference.

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
Last nights NPHET upload included 4 now deleted slides illustrating that as vaccine is rolled out Ireland will remain vulnerable to significant surges in cases, the worst projection being more than Dec/Jan wave, peaking at over 10k per day. They assume vax complete by October /1 ImageImageImageImage
Slides are headed 'A Vulnerable period ahead' & illustrate a possibility of repeated surges & lockdowns, assuming 58,800 vaccinations per week. 85% efficacy green line has just two future surges & lockdowns, another (0 efficacy?) just repeats /2 Image
The most alarming one where R value is assumed to rise to 2 has a surge so enormous it vanishes off the top of the graph as it passed 10,000 cases. Looks to be a peak around 18k. Presumably these are 'look lads, despite vaccination you can still really feck this up' warning /3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
836 positive #Covid19Ireland swabs which is 85% of last Friday. Positivity below 5% for first time in a while at 4.9%. Still looking at a very long (3 months) reduction in cases to get us under 100 per day /1 Image
Average positive #Covid19 swabs over last 3 days was 863, thats 88% of same days last week, that rate projected
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Drastic reduction in rate new cases falling at now attributed to rising proportion of #B117 - 90% of cases in last two weeks. Older variants reduced 35%+ a week, B117 reducing at around 15%, thats difference between 2 month lockdown & 5 month lockdown to get under 100 a day /3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
Weekly deaths bulletin for northern Ireland has 2691 #Covid19Ireland deaths to February 12th. This weekly NISRA count is more exhaustive that the Department of Health daily announcements & running total. It had 1985 deaths at that date, 26% less /1 Image
The future NISRA minimum number of total deaths for yesterdays can be reprojected by adding the 36 DoH deaths since Feb 12th to the 2691 NISRA total for the 12th to give 2727. The likely total is 2706 which is 1454 #Coronavirus deaths per million in northern Ireland /2 Image
NISRA provide a calculation of excess deaths (those above the 5 year average) which is 2,475 since the start of the pandemic, 546 of those in 2021. Worth noting in passing this is a higher ratio than the CSO in the south which may reflect south capturing more covid deaths? /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
18 Feb
816 #CovidIreland positive swabs are 95% of last Thursday so very slow rate of reduction continues which means under 100 cases a day is month away. #B117 variant seems to be cause of slowdown with 25% of close contacts being infected now as against 12%. 5.26% positivity /1 Image
Average of 842 positive swabs over last 3 days, this is 91% of same days last week. Week on week reductions at that rate runs into June to go under 100
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HSE report of number of close contacts of confirmed cases remains pretty static so this isn't the cause of the slowing down but a much higher proportion of these now test positive probably due to B117. Note NPHET give a lower adult only figure on Thursday evening /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
20 Jan
Increase in positive swabs (2791) to be expected on Weds & anticipated in Mondays GP referrals. Tues to Weds last week saw day to day 160% increase, this is 156% so comparable. This is also a 2.4% increase in positivity to 11.5%, last week it was a 2.5% increase /1
2791 is 71% of last Weds figure but averaging over 3 days we have 2128 swabs with a reduction of 68% on equivalent days last week which same as yesterday gets us under 100 cases a day 8 weeks from now on March 17th. So no big change in pattern despite apparent one day rise /2
That weekly 3 day average reduction sequence now looks like
1449 - Jan27
986 - Feb3
672 - F10
457 - F17
311 - F24
212 - March3
144 - M10
98 - M17
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Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
20 Jan
Post this lockdown we are going to again be faced with a lobbyist demand for careless rushed opening based this time on the idea that IFR will have fallen because those most at risk have been vaccinated. This sounds sensible but is another recipe for disaster /1
Core problem is that over half those who were hospitalised were under 65 & about 60% of those who went into ICU. The 6k cases a day peak in January exhausted ICU capacity, forcing cancellation of routine surgery & turning operating theatres into surge ICU. /2 ht @1987Andrewk
161 under 65s had died to December, stats on ICU admission to that date suggest that without such access for 385 who needed it 2 to 3 times as many would have died. 2768 needed hospitalisation from those ages, presumably without access many (50%) would also have died. /3
Read 10 tweets

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