Thread by @andrewflood

836 positive #Covid19Ireland swabs which is 85% of last Friday. Positivity below 5% for first time in a while at 4.9%. Still looking at a very long (3 months) reduction in cases to get us under 100 per day /1

Average positive #Covid19 swabs over last 3 days was 863, thats 88% of same days last week, that rate projected
760 wk1
669 wk2
588 wk3
518 wk4
456 wk5
401 wk6
353 wk7
311 wk8
273 wk9
241 wk10
212 wk11
186 wk12
164wk13
/2

Drastic reduction in rate new cases falling at now attributed to rising proportion of #B117 - 90% of cases in last two weeks. Older variants reduced 35%+ a week, B117 reducing at around 15%, thats difference between 2 month lockdown & 5 month lockdown to get under 100 a day /3

Resumption of contact testing is some part of reason for slow down but likely that is now not part of week to week comparison. Slide shows symptomatic cases declining while asymptomatic ones plateauing /4

Proportion of cases in Dublin has also been rising, apparently as part of an urban rise. Unaffordability of housing in Dublin means a lot of over crowded housing where the virus easily transmits /5

There is a rise in 18-24 age group incidence possibly driven by the large student outbreaks in both Galway & Limerick. Centre of Galway is now the hardest hit local election areas on the island and the mean age of those infected is 22, elsewhere its mid 30s./6

The number of close contacts per confirmed case has remained fairly static and very low. Likewise google mobility data while higher than the Spring has not indicated a recent rise in moving around which suggests slower reduction is not changed behaviours /7

Slides are all from last nights NPHET press conference, for full set and previous sets see gov.ie/en/collection/…

763 cases notified, 83% of last Friday. It looks likely there is a backlog of 200 or so cases which will make it to notification in the next days if usual pattern holds