Thread by @andrewflood

Weekly deaths bulletin for northern Ireland has 2691 #Covid19Ireland deaths to February 12th. This weekly NISRA count is more exhaustive that the Department of Health daily announcements & running total. It had 1985 deaths at that date, 26% less /1

The future NISRA minimum number of total deaths for yesterdays can be reprojected by adding the 36 DoH deaths since Feb 12th to the 2691 NISRA total for the 12th to give 2727. The likely total is 2706 which is 1454 #Coronavirus deaths per million in northern Ireland /2

NISRA provide a calculation of excess deaths (those above the 5 year average) which is 2,475 since the start of the pandemic, 546 of those in 2021. Worth noting in passing this is a higher ratio than the CSO in the south which may reflect south capturing more covid deaths? /3

NISRA has found 89.6% of its Covid19 deaths to Sept 30 had Covid19 as the underlying cause, that excess deaths figure currently at 92% of Covid suggests that ratio will have roughly held when next updated March 24th. It's similar to the 92% CDC figure
nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.go… /4

I'll update this thread each day with latest projections as DoH additional deaths become available. The linked thread has a similar explanation and then the daily updates from the 12th February /5

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1362702841186500611

5 additional deaths from DoH for northern Ireland bring likely #Coronavirus deaths to 2746 or 1457 per million pop. 313 cases were 77% of last Friday, positivity was 13%.
Vaccine
1st dose 22.7%
2nd dose 1.6%
#Covid19Ireland
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