Once again: If we had flipped 1-2 more Senate seats in November, Sen. Manchin (& Sen. Sinema) wouldn't be causing nearly as many headaches. But...we didn't, so they are.

It sucks, but that's where things stand. And while Sinema *may* be primaryable in 2024, Manchin won't be.
"We just need a True Progressive for WV!"

Yeah, they tried that in 2018. He crushed her by 40 points in the primary. Then they tried again in 2020. She was crushed by *43* points in the *general* by Capito.
(and before anyone claims I'm gleeful about this...I raised over $56,000 for Swearengin in the general last year even though I knew it was likely a lost cause.)
If we want to reduce Manchin’s power, we’ll just have to flip a few more seats in 2022. It’s that simple.


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More from @charles_gaba

24 Feb
🚨 REMINDER: The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to release one or more opinions TOMORROW MORNING. This may include the fate of the Affordable Care Act. 1/
Oral argument *seemed* to go well for the #ACA last November, and the consensus opinion is that #SCOTUS will either throw the case out or, at worst, order the mandate language stricken while leaving the rest intact...which would be mildly irritating but otherwise fine. 2/
HOWEVER, there's 4 *other* possible rulings:
1. They kick it back down to the district court again.
2. They strike down guaranteed issue & community rating only.
3. They strike down most of the law but leave oddball provisions in place.
4. They kill the entire law. 3/
Read 16 tweets
24 Feb
📣 How many *additional* #ACA enrollees are signing up during the ongoing #COVID19 Enrollment Period? If @healthsherpas data so far is indicative, quite a few:
Using their Week 1 data, it seems likely that between 160K - 250K people enrolled in #ACA exchange plans nationally from 2/15 - 2/21. Assuming that's accurate *and* the pace holds steady for the full 3-mo period (unlikely), the potential ceiling would be 2.1 - 3.3 million.
Normally you'd expect around 700,000 people to enroll via traditional Special Enrollment Periods nationally during that same period, so that would mean 1.4 - 2.6 million *more* enrollees than you'd normally expect without a COVID SEP.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
“DON’T TRACK COVID ALONG PARTISAN LINES! IT’S NONPARTISAN!” —criticism I’ve repeatedly received over the past year
Meanwhile, #COVID19 deaths are now 3.3% *higher* in the red counties than the blue counties. Image
Meanwhile, the 100 counties w/the highest #COVID19 death rate voted for Donald Trump by *TWENTY-ONE POINTS*. Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Feb
📣"more than triple the volume in a typical SEP week"

I have no idea whether this is representative nationally or if it'll continue, but if so (and if it keeps at this pace), that's potentially huge.
Last month I projected that a 60-day national "no reason needed" COVID Enrollment Period would bring in perhaps 400,000 additional exchange enrollees (beyond normal Special Enrollment Period rates).

Typically, ~7K enroll via SEPs every day during the off-season nationally.
Tripling that nationally would mean ~14K *more* per day, or ~840K during a 60-day period...more than double my rough projection.

Of course the federal COVID Enrollment Period is *90* days, but it's only 30 for some state exchanges, and that 3x rate may not be representative.
Read 4 tweets
23 Feb
Cannon and I strongly disagree about his framing of CA banning #ShortAssPlans, but I agree that asking about actual healthcare POLICY decisions would make a hell of a lot more sense than whether or not Becerra is a doctor or not.

Tom Price is a doctor and he was a disaster.
As for #ShortAssPlans in California, what Cannon is really talking about is availability of affordable individual market plans for those who earn too much to be eligible for #ACA subsidies.
This is a real problem, I agree. It's expected to be addressed in the short term by the #AmRescuePlan, and hopefully on a permanent basis via #HR369.

In California, they *partly* addressed the issue by adding their own ACA subsidies for those earning 400 - 600% FPL...
Read 6 tweets
22 Feb
📣 HEALTHCARE TWITTER: Does anyone remember a piece from a couple of years ago about the #TexasFoldEm lawsuit in which the reporter actually *asked* a bunch of GOP House/Senate members whether they intended to wipe out the entire ACA when they zeroed out the individual mandate??
If so, please contact me for a piece I'm hoping to publish tomorrow--I need to know the reporter and preferably the link to the story. There might have been more than one published. Thanks!
UPDATE: Twitter comes thru again! Thanks to @amgasteier, I think this piece from @pdmcleod of BuzzFeed is the one I was thinking of: buzzfeednews.com/article/paulmc…
Read 5 tweets

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