1/ Tomorrow, the Texas House and Senate will hold hearings on the #TexasBlackout. One thing I'll be listening carefully for--and likely won't hear from many on the committees--is discussion of #climatechange.
3/ Why? As I said in the @HoustonChron “We never hear the words #climatechange spoken at ERCOT because of the politics. It’s a taboo subject. We’re using the past as a predictor of the future and we can’t do that...
5/ It would have required 14 state agencies (Ag, Forest Service, PUC, Water Board, etc.) It actually passed the House Cmte on Environmental Regulation unanimously in '09. It died there.
6/ A massive wildfire in Bastrop in '11+ more fires in 2015 + more in '18 “The lesson from our research is very, very clearYou cannot fix the fire problem without getting real and confronting climate change. Period. End of story." Donald Falk, U of AZ
7/ Three 1:500 year floods (as former Republican County Judge Ed Emmett said: either we're good for 1500 years or the climate is changing) capped by Hurricane Harvey which caused over $120b in damage and 100 deaths nytimes.com/2017/12/13/cli…
8/ And now this. Extreme cold, research suggests, is exacerbated by #climatechange
9/ The death toll is climbing. The damages are hard to even imagine.
How are we going to adapt to these kinds of extreme events? How do we deal with a problem unless we acknowledge it's a problem and resolve to deal with it.
This is not a drill. Climate change is happening now.
10/ I went to bed Tuesday night, reading by flashlight because the power was out. I had put the kids to bed thinking by 3 or 4 I'd have to get them out of bed so we could all huddle together for warmth. That night, I read in Ministry for the Future... theguardian.com/books/2020/nov…
11/ "This was yet another manifestation of a universal cognitive disability, in that people had a very hard time imagining that catastrophe could happen to them, until it did. So... people had a tendency to deny it could happen. To others, yes; to them, no."
12/ I had a broken pipe and 5 days w/out running water. Now I, like millions of other Texans, like those who lost crops to drought, had homes damaged by Harvey or the Bastrop fire. no longer need to imagine...
More and more of us have been personally impacted by #climatechange.
13/ We've altered our planet. That's a fact. We all now live in a new epoch (the Anthropocene); it's time we start acting like it. I hope the committees will have at least 3-4 climate and environmental experts but I'm not holding my breath.
And these are just a few at our state's great universities. Please add replies or retweets with add'l experts
15/ While the committees likely aren't going to listen to these folks tomorrow, it's imperative #txlege and state agencies start listening to experts on #climatechange and our interrelated climate impacted systems.
We've just experienced what happens when they don't. /end
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@cohan_ds called this an "energy system failure" not merely electric system. Important bc methane gas regulators must be part of the solution. #txlege#txenergy
2/ Alison Silverstein, former PUCT and FERC staffer and true expert on these issues (Commitees: call her!) said “This industry has been treating weather events as if they’re high-impact, low-frequency. In my view, extreme weather events are [now] high-impact, medium-frequency.”
3/ On #climatechange, I said: “We’ve got to embrace the science and get smarter about how we deal with climate change. It’s hard for people. It’s hard for me to say it, but it is going to get worse and people need to understand this.”
Hey #energytwitter, if you want to tune in to the Senate and House hearings on the #TexasBlackout, links are in next tweet. I'll tweet on it throughout the day on this thread.
Please tweet using #txlege and #txenergy, esp. if you have relevent info that could help going forward
As #Texas assesses the damage from last week, and water + power flow again, there's going to be a lot going on this week. It's important the public stay engaged. Many are banking on you tuning out. Don't.
1/ Watch for announcements from retail electric providers (REPs) like this one from @JustEnergyUS which warns it may go under. Who will buy them for pennies on the dollar? Private equity? @nrgenergy or @VistraCorp? (btw, follow @JavierBlas)
2/ And what happens to their customers? They'll go to "Providers of Last Resort" program dominated by @nrgenergy and @VistraCorp. They're allowed to charge high prices as POLR. Hopefully, they won't do that. (Other REPs can apply by 3 today) Eyes open 👀
Tonight, at 5:30 with very little notice, the Texas Public Utility Commission met. Those interested can listen here at the link below. Pay special attention to the exchange with a concerned Texan
They gave until Monday at 3pm for Retail Electric Providers (REPs) to ask to be a "Provider of Last Resort" (POLR). This is the backstop for when other REPs go out of business, as many will, their customer get transferred to larger REPs like @reliantenergy and @txuenergy
Customers don't get to choose their POLR and Reliant and TXU are pushing hard to be the POLR. Customers can switch later. There's a problem: there will be far less REPs to switch to after likely dozens of companies fail. @apoorv_bh89 called this:
Enjoyed talking to public radio listeners yesterday @TPRNews. A few highlights:
(1) Anyone who blames wind energy for this is wrong. (2) The main problem was failure in gas, coal, and nuke plants and with gas supply. tpr.org/environment/20…#txlege#txenergy 1/4
(3) Renewables generally, though not at all times, overperformed, including right now... #windenegy is a big reason power is back. (4) #Gas, for now, should not be considerd reliable. It's not always available when most needed. About 1/3 of the gas plants are *still* out. 2/4
(5) Get water and power flowing to people again, and then let's start looking for solutions. (6) Blaming accomplishes little but we need our state's leaders to accept responsibility. 3/4
A thread on the #ERCOT situation below but most importantly, if you're in TX, if you can, reduce usage today between 4-10 and again tomorrow between 5-9am.
More below on what's happening now, what's driving this kind of event and what needs to be done.
Every 6 months, ERCOT creates the SARA, seasonal assessment of resource adequacy. Their forecast was 24% lower than what will likely be peak demand today. They also had an extreme weather forecast. That was somehwere around 10% lower than what we're likley to see tomorrow.
Winter peak demand forecast was 57,699. Current day forecast is ~71,000MW and tomorrow around 75,000MW. Their extreme peak load forecast was for 67,208MW, obviously undershooting by a lot. ercot.com/news/releases/…