Thread by @NvOndarza

Pre-Weekend thought on #Brexit, Northern Ireland Protocol and what it means for the EU-UK relations.

To me, part of why the UK is escalating again is due to very different lessons learned from the Internal Market Bill and its effect on the trade negotiations last year.

From a Brexiteer perspective, the Internal Market Bill is often regarded as a successful negotiation ploy. It seemingly showed the EU what a risk no deal would also be to the EU, and how serious the UK was about no deal. It thus helped getting more concessions out of the EU. /2

Following this, escalating now on NI is seen as giving the UK negotiation leverage. It forces EU attention on the difficult situation in NI, gives the UK gov the support from ERG+DUP and is expected to help generate pressure on the EU to cave on demands for change of NI protocol.

The EU perspective on the Internal Market Bill is completely different. The move by the UK to threaten to violate its commitments in the NI protocol destroyed trust and raised the requirements by member state for an enforceable level playing field. /4

It also made it harder for 'friends of the UK' within the EU to lobby for a compromise solution. It turned the EU-UK negotiations into a zero sum game, which made finding an agreement acceptable for both sides much harder to attain. /5

From this perspective, the Internal Market Bill therefore made the EU less, not more prone to compromise. What goodwill and trust there was in the UK was deeply eroded, and EU member states hardened their attitude - ironically making Barnier/the Commission the UK's best friend./6

I fear with these different lessons being drawn, the same is happening again. Johnson/Frost think they can gain leverage by playing hard ball, but from the EU side I fear they are rather more successful in losing friends and making it harder for the EU to compromise. /7

Ireland, who very much took the UK side on the Art. 16 row, is being deeply offended. Germany, who wants to engage the UK bilaterally, is having second thoughts. The Commission, which wanted to prepare the grounds for extension of grace periods, now needs to show its tough. /8

At the end of 2020, the pressures on both sides were enough to get a Christmas deal - despite, not because of the IMB.

But, as the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Compromise has become tougher, and will not be easy to find for either side.