Thread by @dice_h2020

Welcome to DAY 2⃣ of the #DiCEConference on #Brexit!

Like yesterday, we are highlighting all the best bits online here⤵️

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Our moderator Christopher Lord welcomes four panelists: @BrigidLaffan, @HusseinHKassim, Vivien A. Schmidt, and @FabianZuleeg

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Our first speaker in @HusseinHKassim from the University of East Anglia

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

We've been given by his speech a deep dive into the details of the current agreement, and Vivien A. Schmidt now dives into questions of HOW we got here

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Will economic interest win out once ' taking back control' is assured via #Brexit is a significant question for the future of UK-EU relations"

- Vivien A. Schmidt speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Another question: what happens if the UK does lose 5% of GDP in the next decade (as predicted)? And what happens if either the UK or the UK and EU thrive? How will the relationship dynamic develop?"

- Vivien A. Schmidt at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The big question is: how do we avoid a return to austerity?"

- Vivien A. Schmidt speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

We now turn to @FabianZuleeg, who's starting point is: "there will be a relationship, neither side can ignore the other"

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"How did we end up here? It's a Venn diagram of where the red lines intersected. The British government's actions were pushed by national politics, so a thin deal was inevitable"

- @FabianZuleeg from @epc_eu speaks at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

"It may not have been acknowledged in those terms, but in all aspects, the deal is bad for the UK. Even the staunchest Brexiteers are against it. And the UK will have to blame the EU."

- @FabianZuleeg from @epc_eu speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

"This is a one-off in terms of these types of negotiations: going from a position of total convergence to a system of increasing divergence"

- @BrigidLaffan from @RobSchuCentre

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Of course, where we ended up was entirely predictable based on the red lines of both the UK and the EU. This was an agreement drawn by red lines"

- @BrigidLaffan from @RobSchuCentre speaking at the #DiCEConference on #Brexit

#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"#BorisJohnson prioritised a sovereignty-first #Brexit. Which buried economic considerations and economic understanding was supplanted by the Brexit discourse"

- @BrigidLaffan from @RobSchuCentre speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"N. Ireland is a major source of instability; the continuing desire of the Uk government to play politics with the deal is a concern; and we're seeing a major clash of models"

- @BrigidLaffan

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"I don't think the UK recognises the EU as a legitimate actor. Dominic Raab's Foreign Office does not recognise the EU ambassadors, and David Frost always referred to - not the EU, but - 'your international organisation' in negotiations"

- @BrigidLaffan

#InDivEU #H2020 @IdeaEu

"There is a Trumpian faction within the UK government, which believes that when they talk to the EU, they are talking to something which shouldn't exist, something of a lesser importance. So depending on who steers the UK, cooperation may be very difficult"

- @FabianZuleeg

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"The next 12 months is a critical time in getting the institutions of the TCA working, solve the NI protocol, and depoliticise the whole issue. But the UK government does not want to do so"

- @BrigidLaffan from @RobSchuCentre

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

"If the UK pursues only bilateral relations between London, Paris, and Berlin, they will fail. Because no EU Member State will privilege its allegiance to the UK over its allegiance to the EU"

- @BrigidLaffan at #DiCEConference on #Brexit

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"If it doesn't manage to deal with the EU going forward, then internal divisions play a big role in the UK's internal legitimacy"

- Vivien A. Schmidt at the #DiCEConference on #Brexit

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Looking at the TCA, there are areas (like aviation) where there has to be cooperation. In a way, there is a mechanical cooperation which must take place"

- @HusseinHKassim speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"To think of the current Conservative party and government: there are anti-statists among the party as well as the Trumpists, who not only detest the EU but also the organisation of the State"

- @HusseinHKassim at #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Another significant factor is the absence of check or balance: the Labour Party offers no alternative vision of relations, neither does the press. So it's hard to see how there can be a domestic pressure for change"

- @HusseinHKassim

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"I spoke to financial services organisations in the City, and relayed their concerns to the EU, who immediately took it onboard. There was no such concession from the British negotiating team, where ideology took precedence"

- @HusseinHKassim

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"There is denial about the consequences of the deal, and there is a fundamental asymmetry which cannot be acknowledged yet on the UK side. Until there is a change of perspective in London, it's difficult to see any change"

- @HusseinHKassim

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

After these initial rounds from our roundtable, we move onto a dynamic Q&A session, focusing on the differences in vaccine rollout and what this might mean for the dynamics of the relationship, checks in N. Ireland, and politicisation

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

Roundtable 3⃣: "What role for the United Kingdom in a post-Brexit world" is starting now!

Moderated by Julie Smith, we'll hear contributions from @CER_IanBond, Michael Keating, Federico Fabbrini, and @joshaw

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Our first question is a controversial one: what happens to the UK in a post-Brexit world? Does it even remain united?

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Michael Keating begins by outlining the divisions within the UK: Scotland voted 62% to Remain, an support for the EU has since become associated with a support for Scottish independence

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"NI, similarly voted Remain, though here the vote fell more along polarised lines of nationalists and unionists"

- Michael Keating speaks at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"There is also the question of England, where support for #Brexit isn't associated with a feeling of Britishness but a feeling - specifically - of 'Englishness'"

- Michael Keating speaks at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

.@joshaw adds to Michael Keating's analysis: "we could have a long debate about the relationship between the legal, political, and constitutional. But ultimately what we are seeing a move towards illiberal constitutionalism"

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"#Brexirt hasn't finished, it has just started: the implementation of Brexit is not a post-Brexit world, it is Brexit coming into reality"

- Federico Fabbrini speaks at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The N.Ireland situation is still the most important, for EU-UK relations AND for UK-US relations"

NI is now an 'in-between' region, straddling both the EU and the UK as a result of a border - effectively - in the Irish Sea

- Federico Fabbrini speaks at the #DiCEConference

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"The British government can't follow four years of 'we must leave the EU, economy be damned' with an argument to Scotland that they cannot vote for independence for economic reasons"

- @CER_IanBond speaks at the #DiCE Conference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Even Wales, which did vote to Leave, is seeing increased signs of support for more autonomy from London. The Internal Market Act has caused a lot of opposition in Wales as well as Scotland and NI"

- @CER_IanBond at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The British government says it wants a #GlobalBritain, but the sceptics will say that this is meaningless in the wake of a #LittleBritain pursuit of #Brexit

We move onto the second question of our third roundtable at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

"Certain people like David Frost seem to believe that #Brexit has removed the UK not only from the EU, but from geography itself."

- @CER_IanBond speaks at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"#Brexit is the paradoxical confluence of the right wing side of the Conservative party who supported Brexit in the name of #GlobalBritain and an anti-globalisation cohort who are against the delocalisation of production"

- Federico Fabbrini

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#InDivEU #EU3D @IdeaEu

We now turn to the Q&A session with the audience

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Our questions concern mainly the unity (or disunity?) of the UK in the wake of Brexit: increasing tensions between Scotland, NI, Wales, and England, as well as threats to devolution

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Our fantastic moderator Julie Smith closes Roundtable 3⃣ of our #DiCEConference on #Brexit

Coming up next (in only 10 mins!) we have our Witness Panel: "The View from Stakeholders Involved in Brexit"

Stay tuned 💪

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Witness Panel: "The View from Stakeholders Involved in Brexit" has just started!

@NicolePirozzi from @IAIonline moderates the discussion about the experiences of stakeholders in #Brexit

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

Our Witness Panel includes @jillongovt from @UKandEU, @GeorginaEWright from @instituteforgov, @DecKelleher (former Perm. Rep. of IE to the UK), and @StefaanDeRynck

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

.@StefaanDeRynck begins his presentation: "what worked on the EU side is unity and solidarity. Ireland benefitted, yes, but all of Europe benefitted"

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The Barnier Slide was useful in visualising the choices the UK had: from the start, the UK was clearly warned that as a third country, it is up to the UK to make their own choices"

- @StefaanDeRynck speaks at #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Boris Johnson was simply much better at #Brexit than Theresa May. He understood the staircase model. It was easier to negotiate than it had been with the previous gvmt which sought an impossible bespoke model"

- @StefaanDeRynck

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

.@DecKelleher sets out four key strategic objectives of Ireland in #Brexit:

1) Protect the peace process
2) How to manage the trade impact
3) Protecting the Common Travel Area
4) Protect IE's position in the Single Market and EU

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"There is a world of difference between being 5m inside the perimeter fence and 5m outside the perimeter fence"

- @DecKelleher quotes Ivan Rogers in his intervention at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

.@GeorginaEWright explains that - in many in the conversations she has had over the years - it came as a surprise that the UK didn't better understand the new dynamic of negotiating a third country

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Given the UK government do not want a close relationship, how does the EU respond to that? If the EU is seriously thinking of how to work with the UK, then it needs a new proposal to attract the UK"

- @GeorginaEWright at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The general view in Paris is caution: they know they have a strong bilateral relationship with the UK (although #Brexit acrimony does lead in slightly), but they are still dedicated to the strong EU position"

- @GeorginaEWright

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The great feature of the EU approach was its unity. The great feature of the UK approach was its disunity in government and in the country"

- @jillongovt at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"The UK is not totally unique in the fact that there were concerns about how the EU runs, especially with regards to migration"

- @jillongovt at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"David Davis once said that putting politics before prosperity was not a wise choice"

- @jillongovt explains how Britain's attitude that 'they need us more than we need them' hurt their negotiating position

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"Brexiteers think that Britain is so important that the EU will bend to their will. Even some Remainers have asked me if this is the case. This is not the case"

- @StefaanDeRynck speaking at the #DiCEConference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

After a dynamic Q&A with our participants in the #DiCEConference Witness Panel, our moderator @NicolePirozzi closes the panel, and opens up our concluding remarks of the conference

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#InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu

"This demonstrates the value of not only bringing researchers together under on @EU_H2020 project, but three: #InDivEU @EU3Dh2020 @IdeaEu"

@JohnErikFossum from #EU3D & @arena_uio gives his concluding remarks to the #DiCEConference on #Brexit

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"This was our first #DiCEConference, and I can't think of a better subject than #Brexit: that example of a country championing opt-outs in the past, and now reorganising its relationship with the EU as a third country"

@BrigidLaffan from @RobSchuCentre gives her thoughts

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On that note, Day 2 of the #DiCEConference on #Brexit comes to a close

Thanks to all who have participated not only today, but throughout the conference!

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You can stay tuned for more in the coming days and weeks, including the continuation of our #DiCEWebinars series and much more from #InDivEU, @EU3Dh2020, and @IdeaEu

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