A great simulation comparing the spread of variants over ~6 weeks, starting from 100 cases.
Wild Type R = 0.7
Assuming B117: 50% more transmissible, P1: 70% more transmissible than the Wild Type.
Wild Type R = 0.7
Assuming B117: 50% more transmissible, P1: 70% more transmissible than the Wild Type.
https://twitter.com/TheMemeticist/status/1370149224248057857
R=0.7 is what AB had at the end of the shut-down last spring. Wild Type daily case count was halving every 8 days.
Under that conditions P1 would still spread like a wildfire.
Under that conditions P1 would still spread like a wildfire.
Please play/run the simulation few times.
Stochasticity (randomness): Each time the result is different, but Wild Type always goes down, while P1 in vast majority of runs shoots up super fast.
Stochasticity (randomness): Each time the result is different, but Wild Type always goes down, while P1 in vast majority of runs shoots up super fast.
https://twitter.com/TheMemeticist/status/1370149228199120896?s=20
P1 is the 'variant that originated in Brazil'
Examples of possible results 👇
Legend:
Wild Type - blue
B117 - green
P1 - red
Examples of possible results 👇
Legend:
Wild Type - blue
B117 - green
P1 - red
Thank you @TheMemeticist 🙏
With #COVIDzero strategy we can stop community transmission of Sars-CoV-2. In just 6-7 weeks. And make sure that we can put all the testing and tracing resources into shielding us from P1.
If we make* the third wave, it will be extremely difficult to screen for P1.
If we make* the third wave, it will be extremely difficult to screen for P1.
*We 'make' the third wave. It is not 'coming'. It's not locust or tsunami.
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