🇧🇷 Brazil cases shed more light on COVID-19 reinfection risk - Imperial College London

RECURRENCE may be more frequent than previously thought. 7% (33) of cases monitored.
imperial.ac.uk/news/217093/br…
Uncertainty if recurrence or reinfection due to lack of preserved samples from 1st episode (1 - a different variant). Among those with recurrent infection, the majority were

-healthcare workers (30)
-female (27),
-average period without disease between 1st & 2nd: 51 days.
-42% (14) were A+ blood type.
(34% in population as a whole)

-more than half of the 33 cases (17) showed a lower antibody response after the 1st infection compared to control group (31 of 62 cases). Image
Severity of the second COVID-19 episode was associated with pre-existing health conditions including

-obesity,

-hypertension,

-diabetes, and

- asthma.
Professor Altmann explained: “We have been careful to call these cases ‘recurrent’, rather than ‘reinfection’, as we cannot fully rule out reservoir of virus persisting.”
“However, we know these people had an initial confirmed COVID-19 infection, recovered and returned to work for a period, before having a second confirmed COVID-19 infection, and that at least two of the cases had a negative PCR result in the interim.”

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More from @fascinatorfun

16 Mar
ONS. Week ending 5th March

Of the 11,592 deaths 2,105 mentioned #COVID19 on the death certificate (18.2% of all deaths).

This has fallen by 809 #COVID19 deaths since the previous week

Curiously Care Home Covid deaths -18.2% are slightly higher % than last week (17.5%)
Overall, however, the proportion of care home Covid deaths have fallen since the start of the vac programme when it was closer to 25%.

Nevertheless, given the over 80s were supposed to have been vaccinated by the end of Jan some more analysis of these deaths would be welcome
How many of those who died were vaccinated and when? With which vaccine and one dose or two.

Worth remembering that although this report is for the week ending 5th March it is based on date of NOTIFICATION so the death may have been week(s) before.
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
18 March 2020 : One insider says: "People were dropping like flies."

The prime minister, however, was acting as though he was impervious to the risk. He had developed a habit of banging his own chest, telling staff he was "strong as a bull".
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
“Soon, though, this chest-banging turned into "extreme coughing fits" and TV messages had to be retaken multiple times.

One Official said “We were more blind than we told the public," and suggests that is still the case one year on.
At least if they admit openly they are flying blind there is more hope that the precautionary principle would be applied and a plan to clear seeing developed, building trust.

It is hubris, over confidence and recklessness that is the killer - literally in this case
Read 7 tweets
16 Mar
This is antibody surveillance to 3rd March so reflects vaccination to maybe mid February (given antibodies at least after the 1st vaccination takes weeks rather than days to build up.

End of March & end of April should reflect a lot of 2 dose people.

Wonder Why Scotland & NI ⬇️
To give you a sense of time and scale in the week ending 11Feb, so 3 weeks before in England, Over 80s in England, had increased from 40.9% two weeks before to 56.4%. Now at c 75%.

75-79 had then doubled from 12.4% to 24.9%. Now now nearly 70%
Let’s put the two graphs side by side. One for the period ending 11th Feb on the left.

The one for the period ending 3rd March on the right.

Notice the different scale.

70-74 age group ( England) were at c15%. Now (3/3/21) at 55%

50-69 yr old at c20%. Now nearer 30% ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
“As the months without a paycheck wore on, Joel Noyes, a 41-year-old cellist with the Metropolitan Opera, realized that in order to keep making his mortgage payments he would have to sell one of his most valuable possessions: his 19th-century Russian bow. Image
Then, in December, the company locked out its roughly 300 stagehands after their union, Local One of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, rejected the Met’s proposed pay cuts.
(In a letter to the union last year, Peter Gelb, the Met’s general manager, wrote that the average full-time stagehand cost the Met $260,000 in 2019, including benefits;
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
Re the Norway/ Iceland/Denmark/Germany etc suspending AZ VACCINE whilst their regulators review the evidence.

That’s their right.

If being careful reassures their populations then that is good

And the data suggests they will be reassured.

I just wish the reporting was better
This is from the International Society of Thrombosis and Haematology experts.

But, the point it, this is all pretty new in all countries and it isn’t surprising if a bit of thinking time is needed whilst Regulators assess competing risk.
Read 13 tweets
15 Mar
PFIZER/MODERNA

📌really need 2 doses for maximal protection (time gap not evaluated here)

📌Vaccines looks generally good against #B117 & #B1429 (CA variant)

📌#P1 moderately poorer

📌#B1351 looks worrisome. #B1351 results looks akin to unrelated coronaviruses.
Unfortunately my efforts to return to the paper here keep failing.

BUT it is notable that another Harvard Pre print seems to bear the above results out esp re B1351 (SA variant)

10-12x fold drop

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
I again remind everyone that antibody titers are only part of the immunity picture. Research, for instance by Prof Crotty’s team shows that B Cells (that can be prompted to produce antibodies INCREASE over time).

Then there’s T cells.

New AZ study interesting here
Read 5 tweets

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