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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
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15 Mar, 13 tweets, 4 min read
Re the Norway/ Iceland/Denmark/Germany etc suspending AZ VACCINE whilst their regulators review the evidence.

That’s their right.

If being careful reassures their populations then that is good

And the data suggests they will be reassured.

I just wish the reporting was better
This is from the International Society of Thrombosis and Haematology experts.

But, the point it, this is all pretty new in all countries and it isn’t surprising if a bit of thinking time is needed whilst Regulators assess competing risk.
This feels spot on to me.
@TomChivers in @unherd explains that you’d expect to see about 5,000 blood clots among the 5 million recipients of the jab every year — 14 a day, nearly a hundred a week — even if that jab had nothing to do with blood clots whatsoever.

So 37 in way below the 14 a day expected
unherd.com/2021/03/how-da…
One of @BBCRosAtkins pithy summaries of the competing issues and risks.

Should regulators be careful? Of course.

How risk management is communicated really matters. The Irish have tried to couch it in reassuring terms.
Meanwhile Covid is still killing large numbers of people every day, and making far more very sick leaving many with permanent or long term damage.
Cambridge Uni Vascular physician here.

Also sounds likely (says I making a prediction!)
Scientists will do maths and “risk” may increase from roughly 0.0002% for a rare thrombotic event for an individual to at very highest 0.002% or more realistically 0.0004%.

Does being careful matter?

Yes.
So do the terms in which risk is conveyed to the public so that does not do more harm than good in a time where the disease is currently doing a lot of harm and where there are signs it has been taking off again in some countries.
A few more background facts on the German data and why they are taking the decisions the way they are.

And that is OK.
And further details her.

6 out of 7 people were women and aged 20-50. 3 died so hardly surprising they are being cautious

BUT also some data on incidence in women generally (x 3 fold higher) and rises to 12 in every 100k deliveries.
Apart from pregnancy introducing increased risk so does hormonal contraception and a history of thrombophilia

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More from @fascinatorfun

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
17 Mar
Cummings wants to turn the UK into the ‘home of science’ – but ignored all scientists re lockdown

People tend to forget this because he has no qualifications beyond a BA in history has never done so much as an hour’s paid work in any kind of science job
independent.co.uk/voices/dominic…
“Another reason people tend to forget that Dominic Cummings is a scientist is because there are no actual scientists anywhere in the UK who think Brexit is anything other than the most damaging thing that’s ever happened to their industry.” Image
As for his latest money milking machine, ARPA...

I mean, that really was the reason for all those Brexit lies, wasn’t it? Image
Read 6 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Mar
ONS. Week ending 5th March

Of the 11,592 deaths 2,105 mentioned #COVID19 on the death certificate (18.2% of all deaths).

This has fallen by 809 #COVID19 deaths since the previous week

Curiously Care Home Covid deaths -18.2% are slightly higher % than last week (17.5%)
Overall, however, the proportion of care home Covid deaths have fallen since the start of the vac programme when it was closer to 25%.

Nevertheless, given the over 80s were supposed to have been vaccinated by the end of Jan some more analysis of these deaths would be welcome
How many of those who died were vaccinated and when? With which vaccine and one dose or two.

Worth remembering that although this report is for the week ending 5th March it is based on date of NOTIFICATION so the death may have been week(s) before.
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Mar
18 March 2020 : One insider says: "People were dropping like flies."

The prime minister, however, was acting as though he was impervious to the risk. He had developed a habit of banging his own chest, telling staff he was "strong as a bull".
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
“Soon, though, this chest-banging turned into "extreme coughing fits" and TV messages had to be retaken multiple times.

One Official said “We were more blind than we told the public," and suggests that is still the case one year on.
At least if they admit openly they are flying blind there is more hope that the precautionary principle would be applied and a plan to clear seeing developed, building trust.

It is hubris, over confidence and recklessness that is the killer - literally in this case
Read 7 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Mar
This is antibody surveillance to 3rd March so reflects vaccination to maybe mid February (given antibodies at least after the 1st vaccination takes weeks rather than days to build up.

End of March & end of April should reflect a lot of 2 dose people.

Wonder Why Scotland & NI ⬇️
To give you a sense of time and scale in the week ending 11Feb, so 3 weeks before in England, Over 80s in England, had increased from 40.9% two weeks before to 56.4%. Now at c 75%.

75-79 had then doubled from 12.4% to 24.9%. Now now nearly 70%
Let’s put the two graphs side by side. One for the period ending 11th Feb on the left.

The one for the period ending 3rd March on the right.

Notice the different scale.

70-74 age group ( England) were at c15%. Now (3/3/21) at 55%

50-69 yr old at c20%. Now nearer 30% ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Mar
“As the months without a paycheck wore on, Joel Noyes, a 41-year-old cellist with the Metropolitan Opera, realized that in order to keep making his mortgage payments he would have to sell one of his most valuable possessions: his 19th-century Russian bow. Image
Then, in December, the company locked out its roughly 300 stagehands after their union, Local One of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, rejected the Met’s proposed pay cuts.
(In a letter to the union last year, Peter Gelb, the Met’s general manager, wrote that the average full-time stagehand cost the Met $260,000 in 2019, including benefits;
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
15 Mar
PFIZER/MODERNA

📌really need 2 doses for maximal protection (time gap not evaluated here)

📌Vaccines looks generally good against #B117 & #B1429 (CA variant)

📌#P1 moderately poorer

📌#B1351 looks worrisome. #B1351 results looks akin to unrelated coronaviruses.
Unfortunately my efforts to return to the paper here keep failing.

BUT it is notable that another Harvard Pre print seems to bear the above results out esp re B1351 (SA variant)

10-12x fold drop

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
I again remind everyone that antibody titers are only part of the immunity picture. Research, for instance by Prof Crotty’s team shows that B Cells (that can be prompted to produce antibodies INCREASE over time).

Then there’s T cells.

New AZ study interesting here
Read 5 tweets

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