1/
Many countries are vaccinating their elderly. Can we relax control measures now?
No.
Even with 50% of elderly vaccinated, uncontrolled #SARSCOV2 transmission may overrun the healthcare system.
We explain @AMJPublicHealth today, led by @_gmales
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
Many countries are vaccinating their elderly. Can we relax control measures now?
No.
Even with 50% of elderly vaccinated, uncontrolled #SARSCOV2 transmission may overrun the healthcare system.
We explain @AMJPublicHealth today, led by @_gmales
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
2/
Data from Madrid, Spring 2020:
Critical care requirements peaked at 5 times the usual capacity.
Hospitals managed to increase ICU capacity by 3-fold.
Heroic but, sadly, insufficient.
The healthcare system collapsed. Not everybody who needed critical care received it.
Data from Madrid, Spring 2020:
Critical care requirements peaked at 5 times the usual capacity.
Hospitals managed to increase ICU capacity by 3-fold.
Heroic but, sadly, insufficient.
The healthcare system collapsed. Not everybody who needed critical care received it.
3/
If 50% of the elderly had been vaccinated, critical care requirements still would have peaked at almost 4 times the usual capacity.
Greater than the ICU capacity of any country in the world.
Only a prolonged lockdown could return ICU requirements to normal.
One last thing:
If 50% of the elderly had been vaccinated, critical care requirements still would have peaked at almost 4 times the usual capacity.
Greater than the ICU capacity of any country in the world.
Only a prolonged lockdown could return ICU requirements to normal.
One last thing:
4/
Madrid has now >20% seroprevalence so ICU requirements under uncontrolled transmission would be lower than in 2020,
but
we underestimated ICU needs: we used a conservative definition of critical patient and didn't include nursing home residents who never reached hospitals.
Madrid has now >20% seroprevalence so ICU requirements under uncontrolled transmission would be lower than in 2020,
but
we underestimated ICU needs: we used a conservative definition of critical patient and didn't include nursing home residents who never reached hospitals.
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