(2/5) Four issues will be critical in determining Germany’s ability to partner with the #US in leadership: security policy, the #Russia & #China test cases (Nord Stream & more), public opinion on foreign policy & the makeup of the governing coalition after this fall’s elections.
(3/5) Germany will have to navigate disagreements with the US, while keeping Europe together and going through its own election period, the most significant one in a decade-and-a-half. At the same time, uncertainty about the future of transatlantic relations after Biden remains.
(4/5) If the current opportunity is missed, the likelihood of strategic divergence between #Germany (and #Europe) and the #US will only increase as geopolitical forces pull at a common transatlantic approach. This would undermine the very framework for Germany’s foreign policy.
(5/5) The transatlanticist Biden presidency could be Germany’s best, and perhaps last chance, to be a partner in leadership with a US administration that is still rooted in the experience of 20th century transatlanticism. @StephenFSzabo@annakatrein@hanskundnani@StevenErlanger
1) THREAD: What to expect if the #US 🇺🇸withdraws from #NATO? At the Körber #PolicyGame, we discussed this scenario w/ high-level officials and experts in coop w/ @IISS_org - here are the summarized results for the Twitterati community: (have mercy, it’s my first thread!)
2) We wanted to know: How would Europeans react in such a situation?What are interests and red lines? Thus, we invited a 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪, 🇵🇱,🇬🇧, and 🇺🇸 team to play our scenario. Crisis in the #South, Crisis in the #East - were #Europeans able to get their act together w/out the 🇺🇸? 💪 🇪🇺
3) The short answer is: willing yes ❕but able❔ First, most teams focused on reversing a #US withdrawal from #NATO by all possible means, offering the 🇺🇸concessions that were unthinkable before - from #trade to #energy. But what if that doesn’t help? 🤔