#Thread
By maintaining Trump's "maximum pressure" policy while insisting that Iran commits to "follow-on negotiations" on its key security components before lifting sanctions, the Biden administration may compromise the non-proliferation regime in unforeseen ways:
By maintaining Trump's "maximum pressure" policy while insisting that Iran commits to "follow-on negotiations" on its key security components before lifting sanctions, the Biden administration may compromise the non-proliferation regime in unforeseen ways:
1) Nuclear proliferation is not the only factor that begets nuclear proliferation. A significant conventional threat - and the threat of economic implosion - may also prompt a state to pursue nuclear weapons. Israel & South Africa's nuclear programs are two cases in point:
2) None of them pursued nuclear weapons because a rival did or for prestige! They did so - respectively - in light of conventional threats by neighbors and international ostracization!
3) In other words, the United States' unreasonable calls on Iran to negotiate and forgo its conventional missile capabilities and strategic alliances in a hostile region - coupled with "crippling sanctions" meant to dismantle Iran's economy - may result...
...in an "existential threat perception" that could motivate Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
Iran has not changed course yet and its nuclear program remains a civilian one, but it may revise its "security doctrine" if push comes to shove.
Iran has not changed course yet and its nuclear program remains a civilian one, but it may revise its "security doctrine" if push comes to shove.
4) In other words, an Iran - with 83 million people - deprived of resources and conventional capabilities, in a region where Saudi and UAE can buy hundreds of billions in arms to gain superiority, may well be tempted to acquire nukes.
5) On the other hand, if Iran's conventional superiority is maintained, Tehran is much less likely to engage in behaviour that would trigger proliferation and prompt small neighboring Arab states to pursue nuclear weapons, putting them on an equal footing.
5) But as "maximum pressure" and its related discourse is perceived to stay, there are now increasing calls by officials - especially parliamentarians - to exit the NPT. Even high ranked security officials have made similar allusions.
6) Judging by debates on social media, public opinion also seems to sway toward militarization.
7) It is probably in light of this change of atmosphere that Iran's Supreme Leader has recently- and repeatedly - reiterated his 2003 Fatwa on the religious prohibition of WMDs.
https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1366438667175288834
8) In fact, Ayatollah Khamenei is currently the most effective force standing before further radicalization of the security debate/discourse in Iran. Absent his influence, Iran may act like any other Realist secular state facing such serious security dilemma.
9) If the U.S. fails to see and recognize this reality, it will lead itself to further miscalculations.
10) A miscalculation that may actually, and ironically, prompt Iran to act like a "normal" state!
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