Thread by @anonfmresident

Morning #ableg. Been a view days since I checked the stats so here is your Monday Morning #shandemic report and ..wow...oh man...shit, shit shit.

Monster of Education @AdrianaLaGrange is busy inventing people to endorse her revisionism meanwhile...
Schools with/had cases 1278 (+12)
Last 2 weeks 398(+29)
1 case or Pre-Alert 127 (+17)
Alert (2-4) 148 (-2)
Tier 1 Outbreak (4-9) 81 (+10)
Lagranged 10+ 40 (+4)

1577 Active cases (+27)
In School transmision 265 (+12)
Closed 29
15% of Schools now on outbreak status
3rd wave now approaching 50% mark of previous one

Overall things are getting worse (change since Fri)
146340 143,547 Total cases (+2793)
644 new cases 692 (-48)
1983 Deaths (10)
6,534 7698 Active cases (+1164)
277 In hospital (-8)
53 In intensive care (+10)

Now averaging over the past week we see several trends
Daily new cases 629 (trending up)
Deaths 2.1/day (steady)
Active cases 25% increase.
Hospital Steady
ICU increasing 30%

Now likely the greatest threat, Variants of Concern (VoC). There are three in Alberta B.1.1.7 (UCP/Huckabay), B.1.351 (South African) P.1 (Brazilian)

Currently
B.1.1.7 3043
B.1.351 20
P.1 5
Total 3068

B.1.1.7 is the most concerning now doubling in a little over a week. I earlier predicted 4K cases by April 1. Appears I was too conservative so I am revising that upwards to 5500 (also conservative). Some preliminary studies show a greater chance of death with cases of B.1.1.7

New reproduction (R ) rates are out. This is the average number of other people an active individual will infect. >1 means cases likely to increase

Alberta province wide: 1.14 (1.10-1.18)
Edmonton Zone: 1.13 (1.05-1.21)
Calgary Zone: 1.23 (1.17-1.29)
RoA: 1.05 (0.99-1.11)

Forecast
Active cases steady increase to 9500 (3500 of which will be variants) by week's end
New cases daily 900 by week's end
Hospitals and ICU will continue to trail but will climb to 290 and 70.
After than depends a lot on behaviour over the holidays and spring breaks