Thread by @sandhyaravishan

Okay I did not want to do this, but let me put it out there since many are questioning my "neck and neck" comment. This is my HYPOTHESIS based on observations & conversations on ground. Read this #Thread & give feedback. Pls don't abuse/troll etc. #TamilNaduElections2021 (1/n)

#ThanthiTVOpinionPoll is the only one that shows the macro picture. Projected voteshare margin difference is very slim between both fronts. This is what I meant by neck & neck. There is NO WAVE. Anti incumbency is marginal. Now let's look at caste play. (2/n)

Gounders: 🌱
Vanniyars: 🌱+🥭
Devendrakula Vellalars: 🌱+🌷(lotus emoji not there)
Kallars: 🫕(pressure cooker emoji not there) + 🌱
Maravars: 🌱+☀️
Agamudaiyars: 🌱+☀️
Mutharaiyars: 🌱+☀️
Paraiyars: ☀️
Arunthathiyars: 🌱+🌷
Hindu Nadars (Thoothukudi region): 🌷+🌱 (3/n)

Hindu Nadars (Virudhunagar region): ☀️+🌱
Pillaimars: Largely 🌱
Brahmins: 🌷
Yadavas (Konars): 🌷+🌱

Other castes are all split between 🌱and ☀️.

The reason for this is - people don't have any major issue with the present government. Of course, many want "maatram". (4/n)

In urban centres, there is much more support for ☀️since there is a strong feeling that the regime needs to change. The @arivalayam will do well in urban areas. The @AIADMKOfficial will do well in rural areas. But there is one silent votebase that will make the difference. (5/n)

The women of the state will bring one party to victory. In my initial days of travel, women had not decided who they would vote for. But this trip, they told me categorically that they are voting for 🌱. A number of reasons were given by them for this decision. (6/n)

1. Many are traditional Amma voters.
2. They don't like the DMK.
3. They feel AIADMK will give more money.
4. They feel safer under AIADMK regime.

These are summarised direct quotes, please note. Not my own opinion. Sample sizes are small but the narrative repeats. (7/n)

This time there also seems to be a large number of undecided voters who frankly state they will vote for the highest bidder. My understanding of this is that there is no emotional attachment with leaders of either party now - no J, no MK. So voting becomes transactional. (8/n)

No emotional connect, so their votes are up for sale. And they don't care which party comes to power. "They're all the same," is the constant refrain. So we have women on one side & voters (male and female) willing to sell their vote. Let's get back to the Thanthi poll. (9/n)

According to the poll, there's a gap of between 2% to 10% between DMK & AIADMK, with advantage to DMK. Now factor in women voters. Then factor in cash for votes.

Now tell me - who is more likely to win this election?

☀️ or 🌱?

#TamilNaduElections2021 (n/n)

@mkstalin @EPSTamilNadu @BJP4TamilNadu @draramadoss @INCIndia @maiamofficial @TTVDhinakaran