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Alexander Stahel Profile picture
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3 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Was naively hoping for an updated propaganda playbook since the days of the “Polish invasion of Nazi Germany” (1939) which forced the Wehrmacht to “defend” itself.
And the next step in Joseph Goebbel’s playbook.
Reason: entertainment of the plebs; water for Crimea; strongman BS....
Some more reasoning
More intel in German. One part of thread got my attention. It may well be that Belarus (!) gathered troops at its south to potentially have a coordinated attack on Ukraine with Russia (how convenient a distraction for Lukashenko’s embattled regime). IMHO this could move markets.

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel Profile picture
4 Apr
1/ Keep an open mind to the mounting tensions in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict while markets remains unprepared for it to go from minor to major.

Thread Image
2/ Upfront, below a brief summary on the conflict which is ongoing for 7 years now & its rapid escalation behind (most media coverage) scenes.

3/ For the past weeks, Russia has significantly increased military assets around its Ukraine borders & continues to do so. What got my attention in likely unbiased tweet below? Russia's preparation may involve Belarus too!

Read 18 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
30 Dec 20
On #PTAL #TAL: Today, company announced pilot sales to Atlantic through Amazonian river of Peru and Brazil. While a small first step, let me explain the strategic context 1/
Base case, PetroTal exports Bretana oil through the Peruvian pipeline system, owned and operated by PetroPeru. System is modern and has a ample capacity...2/
Including barging to ship oil to so called pump station 1, we assume all-in transportation cost of around $13/bbl for all our intrinsic modelling work. This is slightly higher than mgmt guidance. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
28 Nov 20
1/ Let us share some fundamentals on #gold price, given latest price action has been testing nerves of bulls after 50% increase post 2018.

Thread @Mintgecko @TheLastDegree @GMoneyResearch @AdamMancini4 Image
2/ View gold as a currency Image
3/ Like other currencies, #gold prices are volatile despite safe heaven backdrop... Image
Read 20 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
23 Apr 20
On #tankers: Let us help our audience on why we are long tankers. Thread...

1) A VLCC vessel has high operating leverage, allowing an investor to earn a very high ROIC, if you hit the cycle right.
In fact, a VLCC vessel may earn a multiple of its invested capital in one good year. See below our illustration for $EURN...
For that however, you need to understand the cycle! Which is why we developed a proprietary, bottom-up tanker market model over the years. Here a snapshot of our output mask...(it is a detailed model, believe us).
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
2 Apr 20
My view/Thread:

Message: SEC, be aware of FAKE NEWS that manipulate the market.

1) Trafigura/Vitol assume 30-35mbpd demand collapse in April and then some. Land storage working capacity realistically up to 600 mb now.

Message: Storage is full in May even with 15 mbpd cut.
2) How does OPEC+ want to even manage that kind of cut? First the numbers:

OPEC: In Feb 20 they produced 27.8 mbpd.
FSU: In Feb 20 they produce 11.4 mbpd

Combined 40 mpbd (incl. Oman et al of "plus circle")
3) Swing producer are Saudi, UAE & Kuwait. They can "swing" to reduce output & represent a combined 20 mbpd, but less exports, say 17 mbpd.

- NIG unreliable/mainly offshore;
- Libya output only 0.16 due to civil war;
- VEZ 0.5; in hospital;
- Iraq 4.6; unreliable;
- Iran: ..
Read 14 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
23 Mar 20
On Tankers/Oil: (thread)

Recently, I read sector analyses assuming shut ins of oil wells to be rapid at current prices & storage therefore less acute.

Of course we disagree strongly. As we explained repeatedly, this is a prisoners dilemma which will make shuts ins slow....
...because suppliers maybe hedged, have well cash opex < 20-25 (note that this comes down to product mix; more gas means lower well head price); are offshore & thus incur high shut in/on cost when assumed this is temporary (2-3 months); have strong BS (majors); are badly run etc.
We assume price signal of oil has to be a lot stronger as we run out of storage to force shut ins by May. Assume 12 mb/d demand collapse in Q2: 90 * 12 = 1080 million barrels (mb); Storage capacity: 950 mb! Ergo: Tankers need to provide storage regardless of contango.
Read 8 tweets

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