3/ Like other currencies, #gold prices are volatile despite safe heaven backdrop...
4/ #gold is third most liquid asset class behind #UST and #SPX. It is entertaining, at times visionary, to read #bitcoin takes away sun of #gold. In reality, that is technically impossible. The two asset classes do not compete. @michael_saylor
5/ No surprise: analysts also here follow price action when “forecasting”. Boringly useless. #WallStreet
6/ In contrast to consumable commodities such as #oil#gas or #copper, #gold does not trade off supply/demand fundamentals. Please study @IGWTreport reports if u want to learn more...! @RonStoeferle
7/ After adjusting for Bretton Woods effect 1971-1975, first free floating bull market til 1980 shows good correlation bw price and real yields, except for a brief period of gold price euphoria. By the by, historic bull markets usually perform >600%...
9/ So basically #gold price trade of TIPS since 1975 (we only have TIPS ETF data since 2003 with R square > 0.7!). Hence, to understand gold price, one needs to have a view on direction of nominal 10y UST and inflation. We will share a view here in a separate thread.
10/ We often read a weaker dollar is good for gold and vice versa. This may be true short term. However, since 1970 there is zero correlation between the two! #USD#Dollar
11/ Of course, gold performance needs local context. If u are based in Brazil or Russia, each with high natural inflation due to dollar bull for past decades, u only had a bull market in #gold :-)
12/ #gold demand is >65% retail (jewellery, coins, bars), 17% central banks, some industrial use and gold backed ETFs.
13/ ETFs explain marginal buyer in #gold best, not #Centralbanks. So for all the conspiracies about #DeepStateCorruption, ETF inflows or outflows matter. ETFs react to TIPS! @EdVanDerWalt does great work following them.
14/ Speculative Futures position do NOT explain #gold price action. Simply does not move the needle. Too big an asset class.
End of thread. Cheers. Pls share!
Thx
So, let us now share our view on how the gold price may unfold in 2021. Brief and based on our fundamental findings of what is ahead...#GOLD
As the GLOBAL economy recovers into Q1 & Q2, both GDP & Inflation accelerate y-o-y and according to the one of the best macro advisory processes out there. Note that the rate of change matters here. @HedgeyeDDale@KeithMcCullough
This most likely means nominal 10y UST sell-off FASTER than inflation accelerates, causing real rates to increase. At the very least, real rates won’t go more negative for months. That won’t push gold price higher. Of course other factors may matter too. #UST#Inflation
So we think gold will be range bound or even revisit $1550 (see quarterly forecast in chart) as bullish sentiment gets shaken out before the bull continues into 2022 and as visualised by our favorite chartist @Northst18363337 ...
Yesterday, I shared a few thoughts that I’d like to expand on, especially given how volatile the current tariff landscape under this admin has become.
Navigating it isn’t just difficult—it’s nearly impossible to avoid missteps. Hopefully some traders will expand on my thoughts...
1/n
What do we know?
As at 23 March 2025, Comex copper price in New York is trading at 14% premium to LME in London. Buying a tonne of copper in NY costs $11,213 versus 9,842 in London, $1,371 per tonne more than in London.
2/n
Why is that? Because of tariff FEARS, not tariffs.
Traders are hedging future risk of potential tariffs on all forms of the raw material, such as cathodes, concentrates, ores, and even scrap. But there aren't such tariffs in place for copper yet (unlike alumnium).
The current Comex price action in the U.S. is basically a Trump tariff trade mirage and is otherwise as misleading of fundaments as the May 2024 price action of which I warned on multiple occasions.
1/n $/pound
In May 2024 however, U.S. price action was more in synch with London. But it didn't reflect weak Chinese housing & construction fundamentals which has been 15-30% of GLOBAL copper use for the past two decades. Today, U.S. prices trade as if borders close tomorrow.
2/n Comex - LME arb in $/t
Unlike May 2024, copper blue chips like $FCX, however, do not buy the rally. So at least it seems that the equity market understands the tariff aspect of the copper price mirage.
In this episode, we discuss China's 2nd of 5 economic paths it can follow.
This episode will also focus on Xi the leader. To understand Xi means to better understand China's economic path forward.
1/n #China
Can China replace malinvestment with more consumption?
Answer: Maybe a little bit & over a long time frame, but President Xi does not want to focus on this path. Instead, he wants to implement his socialist utopia.
2/n
Yes, China’s rising entrepreneurs were welcomed by the Communist Party for at least two decades. But all of that is in reverse.
Under Xi Jinping, China has moved full circle: from low growth & low freedom in the pre-reform era back towards something similar today.
In this episode, we discuss China's investment-led growth model & the first of 5 economic paths China can follow.
As you would expect, also this episode is full of Chinese characteristics!
1/n #China
Starting in 1990s, China’s economic engine has been fueled by capital investments.
Its central planning bureau defined GDP targets, picked winners and drove growth from debt-driven capital formations (green line).
2/n
Has any other nation tried this before, ever? Not to our knowledge.
We checked at ALL G20 economies and their respective growth models for past 70 years. 45% capital formation share is a unique experiment in economic history.
Over the past 3 years, we made some controversial calls in commodities. We decided to exit our oil holding in Aug 2022, we went short natgas in early 2023 or called for copper to go lower in May.
Why? Because we have an egde on China.
1/n #China
Yes, mainstream media picked up pace on important issues facing China today.
Most came to understand that the property bubble burst, that the economy is slowing, that geopolitical frictions are emerging, that there is too much debt.
But do they understand the underlying forces that drive these issues?
2/n
While the majority of these facts are known, most Western observers, investors & industrialists do not fully appreciate their interdependence & the structural changes that are unfolding in China today.
Pre-2020, Gold had one marginal buyer, that being gold-backed ETFs.
Today, gold has at least 3 marginal buyers that can overlap or alternate each other. They are:
- Gold backed Western ETFs (which buy, sell or hold based on US real rates);
- Central Banks seeking higher gold reserves (China; India; Thailand; Vietnam; Qatar, KSA or even Poland) for geopolitical & other reasons;
- Chinese & other Asian wholesale or retail market participants and professional speculators;
Who bought most last? India!
Why? The government cut import duties on gold by 9% at end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand. “The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.”
At least for now, there seems to be always somebody.
1/n
Note however that Chinese retail buying has slowed down recently, as best illustrated by the Shanghai gold premium over international prices.
I will elaborate on the Chinese retail clients more soon.
2/n
However, professional Chinese speculators have increased their futures positions somewhat again. Who is the better indicator of what comes next, retail or the pros? IDK