My view/Thread:
Message: SEC, be aware of FAKE NEWS that manipulate the market.
1) Trafigura/Vitol assume 30-35mbpd demand collapse in April and then some. Land storage working capacity realistically up to 600 mb now.
Message: Storage is full in May even with 15 mbpd cut.
Message: SEC, be aware of FAKE NEWS that manipulate the market.
1) Trafigura/Vitol assume 30-35mbpd demand collapse in April and then some. Land storage working capacity realistically up to 600 mb now.
Message: Storage is full in May even with 15 mbpd cut.
2) How does OPEC+ want to even manage that kind of cut? First the numbers:
OPEC: In Feb 20 they produced 27.8 mbpd.
FSU: In Feb 20 they produce 11.4 mbpd
Combined 40 mpbd (incl. Oman et al of "plus circle")
OPEC: In Feb 20 they produced 27.8 mbpd.
FSU: In Feb 20 they produce 11.4 mbpd
Combined 40 mpbd (incl. Oman et al of "plus circle")
3) Swing producer are Saudi, UAE & Kuwait. They can "swing" to reduce output & represent a combined 20 mbpd, but less exports, say 17 mbpd.
- NIG unreliable/mainly offshore;
- Libya output only 0.16 due to civil war;
- VEZ 0.5; in hospital;
- Iraq 4.6; unreliable;
- Iran: ..
- NIG unreliable/mainly offshore;
- Libya output only 0.16 due to civil war;
- VEZ 0.5; in hospital;
- Iraq 4.6; unreliable;
- Iran: ..
4) Russia is NOT a swing producer as such as its field structure is completetly different.
Field in Siberia cannot be turned off without field damage. Also, their production encompasses 10 large and medium sized producers. Rosneft 3.8 mbpd; Lukoil 1.64 & Surgutneft 1.2 mbpd.
Field in Siberia cannot be turned off without field damage. Also, their production encompasses 10 large and medium sized producers. Rosneft 3.8 mbpd; Lukoil 1.64 & Surgutneft 1.2 mbpd.
5) If Russia wants to contribute, they will incur plenty of conflicts, among producers as well as individual fields. Not so easy. But let us assume they contribute 1 mbpd.
6) That leaves 14 mbpd for Saudi, UAE & Kuwait versus their combined export of, say 17 mbpd.
So Donald suggests they basically cut to zero!
As I said, fake news.
Only the market can fix this mess.
So Donald suggests they basically cut to zero!
As I said, fake news.
Only the market can fix this mess.
And since, the „talk“ bw Putin and MBS or any Cut measures are confirmed as being fake news....! What a joke.
#oott
#oott
And the summary
