1) Aggregated over all age groups, in week 9-11 it dipped below the "Substantial Increase" threshold (4x stddv) for the first time, since the start of the pandemic.
Last week is still very uncertain, as less than 60% of data in...
2/n
2) <25 Never had any significant excess during the pandemic, proofing that the young are unaffected by the virus, but likely very affected by the measures.
Middle age groups remain very high - despite vaccine rollout. I suspect that there are many lockdown deaths included.
3/n
3) The 65 year age group which should have had access to the vaccine now since a while, not doing much better than e.g. in week 37/2020 - still at the same high excess level of 7x stddv excess.
Two highest age groups are good - with 85+ even having submortality. DryTinder?
4/n
Excess Mortality!
2020 Reported: 3,437,019 deaths. Expected deaths were 3,042,412. Increase of 394,607 deaths (13.0%).
2021 Reported: 868,845 deaths. Expected deaths thus far, were 745,959. Increase of 122,886 deaths (16.5%).
Let's look at SD on a monthly basis. Note the shaded pink area is the Government Stringency. SD at the end of 2020 had the lowest stringency, but also significant excess deaths.
@reitschuster
Herr Reitschuster, kleine Anmerkung zu Ihrer heutigen Frage auf der Bundespressekonferenz. Sie sagten in ihrer Frage, dass die Impfung vor einem schweren Verlauf schützt.
Das ist aber zumindest laut den Unterlagen nicht bisher nicht statistisch sign. nachweisbar.
Zur Erklärung. Es traten 3 schwere Fälle in der Placebo Gruppe auf, und einer in der geimpften Gruppe. Das ist allerdings aufgrund der geringen Anzahl nicht statistisch signifikant. Daher 95% ConfidenzInterval [-124, 96]
Es ist damit bisher nicht erwiesen, dass die Impfung schwere Fälle verhindert.