NEW Data Update on

CDC had skipped last week, now find mortality data up to week 12, 3/20 on the site!

1) Week 9-11 no more significant excess.
2) Ages 25-74 still very high substantial excess
3) 85+ dipped below the normal


1) Aggregated over all age groups, in week 9-11 it dipped below the "Substantial Increase" threshold (4x stddv) for the first time, since the start of the pandemic.

Last week is still very uncertain, as less than 60% of data in...

2) <25 Never had any significant excess during the pandemic, proofing that the young are unaffected by the virus, but likely very affected by the measures.
Middle age groups remain very high - despite vaccine rollout. I suspect that there are many lockdown deaths included.

3) The 65 year age group which should have had access to the vaccine now since a while, not doing much better than e.g. in week 37/2020 - still at the same high excess level of 7x stddv excess.

Two highest age groups are good - with 85+ even having submortality. DryTinder?

Excess Mortality!

2020 Reported: 3,437,019 deaths. Expected deaths were 3,042,412. Increase of 394,607 deaths (13.0%).

2021 Reported: 868,845 deaths. Expected deaths thus far, were 745,959. Increase of 122,886 deaths (16.5%).


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More from @BenMarten

28 Feb
How have these five states handled #Covid19 so well? There's no excess deaths...

Here's a quick thread...

Read 5 tweets
4 Feb
I've been analyzing US state #mortality data!

Tonight, let's start with comparing #SouthDakota and #NorthDakota!

#SD had 18% #excess #deaths, while #ND had a whopping 31%

As we know SD has the weakest Government #Stringency, while ND has stronger measures!

North Dakota had 31% vs the previous 3y average age-adjusted mortality.

@MLevitt_NP2013 @justin_hart @FatEmperor @AlexBerenson @EthicalSkeptic @tlowdon @Zigmanfreud @ianmSC @yinonw
Let's look at SD on a monthly basis. Note the shaded pink area is the Government Stringency. SD at the end of 2020 had the lowest stringency, but also significant excess deaths.
Read 6 tweets
29 Jan
BREAKING: 🚨Big US Total Mortality 2020 Thread🚨

2020 will have the same adjusted mortality rate like the years 2004/2005; 3.353M total deaths & ~247k excess deaths.

#COVID19 #Covid #coronavirus #Corona #endthelockdown
@MLevitt_NP2013 @justin_hart @AlexBerenson @EthicalSkeptic
Suprising, since the US is undergoing a "century pandemic" - In reality it is an event that's unique in the last "15 years".

There clearly is Excess Mortality in the US, when compared to the previous 5 years.

@ChanasitJonas @hendrikstreeck @goddeketal @Zigmanfreud @KevinKileyCA
When we broaden the time horizon a bit to the last 20 years, it looks like this.

Only April stands out... Lockdown effects, included? (NYC, etc...)

@PiersRobinson1 @ChongaldXrump @LWiehler
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
🚨 Big Germany Mortality Update 🇩🇪

Now with complete Data for 2020!

2020, the year of the century pandemic has had lower age adjusted mortality than the average of the last 4 years!

#COVID #COVID19 @justin_hart @MLevitt_NP2013 @Zigmanfreud @ChanasitJonas @goddeketal

Aged adjusted by month:
Birds eye view since 1950:
(unadjusted for age)
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
Die kompletten Daten für Deutschland sind da!

Zunächst hier das update der Sterbezahlen nicht Alters angepasst.

#COVID #Covid19 @SHomburg @destatis @hendrikstreeck @jens140180 @FrankfurtZack @GunnarKaiser

Hier der monatliche Verlauf der Sterbezahlen seit 1950.
Und hier das ganze "Übereinandergelegt" pro Monat, mit den jeweiligen Durchschnittswerten.

Read 6 tweets
27 Jan
Herr Reitschuster, kleine Anmerkung zu Ihrer heutigen Frage auf der Bundespressekonferenz. Sie sagten in ihrer Frage, dass die Impfung vor einem schweren Verlauf schützt.
Das ist aber zumindest laut den Unterlagen nicht bisher nicht statistisch sign. nachweisbar. Image
Zur Erklärung. Es traten 3 schwere Fälle in der Placebo Gruppe auf, und einer in der geimpften Gruppe. Das ist allerdings aufgrund der geringen Anzahl nicht statistisch signifikant. Daher 95% ConfidenzInterval [-124, 96]
Es ist damit bisher nicht erwiesen, dass die Impfung schwere Fälle verhindert.

@ZachariasFoegen Könnte das sicher bestätigen ;)

Danke für ihre herausragende Arbeit!
Read 4 tweets

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