Thread: I’m appalled to see, how effectively #Russia is using its military posturing as a leverage on the #US and its Allies in order to reset (though partially) the agenda of security relations in #Europe. I mean, why is Russia let setting "terms of the game" reg. #Ukraine? 1/n
The amassment of troops at #Ukraine borders is nothing new in terms of #Russian mobilisation capacity, we have seen this scale of military activity (and bigger) with key #Russian exercises in past years (though not at #Ukraine borders, that's fair to say). 2/n
Yet, it is enough to have almost everybody in Europe and US ask the notorious question “will they come in, or they won’t?” (yes, dating back to Soviet times, we know it in Poland well...). What follows is – apparently – a drive to engage Russia to de-escalate. 3/n
They key de-escalatory tools seem to be some not-that-vague suggestions, that #EU and @NATO declare its doors CLOSED to #Ukraine, or that the #NordStream2 should be completed, so that we send Russia a signal we don’t want a confrontation, but a sectoral, constructive relation 4/n
Well, this is precisely what Russia wants–to create a tension and then help defuse it, creating this way a new playing field for its relations with US and key European states. Needless to say, it is dangerous and the US and its Allies should not let be led astray by Russia. 5/n
The message should be uneqivocal: if Russia escalates in Ukraine, more sanctions and more military response (meaning: US/NATO posture in Europe) will follow. If Russia wants de-escalation and constructive talks on security in Europe, it sends its troops back to garrisons. /EoT

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More from @MTerlikowski

6 Feb
My dear followers, I know it is the weekend, but I can't help myself and I must comment on #Borrell in Moscow. I'm afraid yesterday we mourned #EuropeanStrategicAutonomy Why? Because how can we agree on a more autonomous #Europe if it fails to defend&protect ALL of its MS? 1/n
As we know, #Russia is conducting a broad, aggressive campaign against the West. It is not only about threatening #NATO and #EasternFlank militarily (how? see here:… ) 2/n
It is about energy coercion (see for instance here:… ), about using disinformation, illegal money, propaganda and "active measures" to divide the #EU and #NATO (see here :… 3/n
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