Ethiopia forecast rainfall update: 21st April 2021

GFS, KMA and ECMWF Model forecasts - all 10 days.

NOTE: There is a significant increase in expected rain over the 10 day period compared to forecasts from earlier in April.
Here is an animation from this afternoon of rain cloud formation over the Blue Nile Basin today. It is picking up speed.
And here is an animation of an explosive burst of convection south of Mogidishu in Somalia. In 5 hours the storm had grown to be larger than the island of Ireland.
The little rainy season is gaining strength over the Horn of Africa. This animation shows storm activity this afternoon and evening in the #BlueNile #Abbay river basin in #Ethiopia, where the waters flowing into the #Gerd originate.

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More from @althecat

22 Apr
There was a lot of cloud, #DesertRain #ArabianStorm and #AfricanMonsoon activity in and around the Middle East today.

Thread with latest Middle East and Ethiopia 10 day rain forecasts follows.

@Arab_Storms Image
10 day forecasts for Ethiopia from ECMWF, GFS and KMA models... ImageImageImage
10 day forecasts for the Middle East from GFS, CMC, KMA and GEFS Models. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
22 Apr
#DesertRain #ArabianStorms #Ethiopa #Sahara #Russia #Europe Special Satellite Images Report:

Here will find a series images of rain events currently underway in deserts in the East of the Western Hemisphere, as the sun goes down on #EarthDay.

Credits @zoom_earth @meteoblue Image
The thread begins with the mother of all deserts the astonishing Sahara. Here you see an April rain event currently underway in Algeria and Libya. #Sahara #DesertRain #EarthDay21
Here are close up images of the Libya/Algeria #DesertRain now traversing the dryest parts of the Sahara. The 1st image (zoom.earth/#view=30.2,17.…) shows rainfall signatures. The 2nd tracks the tail of this rain event back to the Atlantic coast 4500 kms to the West. #EarthDayAfrica ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
21 Apr
21st April 2021 - Middle East #ArabianStorms rainfall forecast update:

10 day forecasts from the GFS, CMC, KMA and GEFS models. /1
21st April 2021 - 3 day rainfall forecasts from the same models - to midnight Friday.
21st April 2021 - long range rainfall forecasts into next week (16 days to midnight Thursday) from the GFS, GEFS (ensemble) and KMA (12 days to midnight Sunday) models. #ArabianStorms

الله يعلم
Read 5 tweets
20 Apr
Update on weather drama from yesterday.

The weather models now appear confused.

Europe may now have a very wet final 2 weeks of Spring, rather than a very cold one. Question is, how wet? Catastrophically so... or just wet wet. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1384500…
The question posed by the burst of high energy West Africa Monsoon air on Friday which broke the @ECMWF yesterday and surprised the @NOAA GFS today is not related to the actual weather itself.

For 8000 years from 12000 BC to 3000 BC this was normal & Europe didn’t drown. /2
The question posed by this relates to climate change.

The transit of moisture across the Sahara may be a rare event, or it may be the new normal with a stronger WMA. Time will tell. And the weather models will learn.

But it is clear the weather is changing.
Read 5 tweets
20 Apr
The North Atlantic is mounting a come back to this Spring is over in Europe malarkey. /1
It certainly looks and feels like it’s going to rain here. And Andre our 93 year old neighbor reckons a storm is coming.
Ouch.... hopefully not this storm.

I think the weather models may be getting a bit discombobulated what with all this new variability going on.
Read 10 tweets
20 Apr
I seriously think the @ECMWF West African Monsoon simulation model is simply broken. Every day the 24 hour it looks the same. Very loopy.

Here are the GZ 20.00 19.00 18.00 and 17.00 model runs for 10 days accumulated precipitation.
GFS same four runs...
KMA same four runs...
Read 7 tweets

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