Thread by @Laurie_Garrett

OK, to all those trashing my tweet on the national downturn in new cases & relationship to #COVID19 #vaccines, let's do the numbers. Drawing from @CDCgov & @CovidTracker data, for key States, compare high daily cases in latest surge, latest tally & vax rates per 100K pop.
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2/This is doses admin'ed, so majority are 1-dose/persn.
Example: MARYLAND
Reported 1,084 new cases on April 13, down to 906 on 4/24 -- a 16% drop.
And it's latest vax rate is 74,859:100K, which is above average.
46% of adults have had 1 or both doses vax.
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3/Few States have vax rates as high as MD.
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MICHIGAN
New cases 4/13 = 10,083. 4/24 = 5,052
48% drop
Vax rate = 67,787/100K
41.2% adults have had 1 or 2 doses
CALIFORNIA
3/25 = 2,485 cases; 4/24 = 2241 -- a 9% drop
Vax rate 72,865/100K; 46.8% adults at least 1 dose
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4/ FLORIDA
4/7 = 5,885 new cases; 4/25 = 4,671 (20% drop)
Vax rate = 67,339:100K
40.2% adults at least 1 dose
NY
3/29 = 8,972; 4/24 = 4,163 (54% drop)
Vax rate = 75,734:100K
45.7% adults at least 1 dose
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5/ TEXAS
3/14 = 2,729 new cases; 4/25 = 1,496 (48% drop)
Vax rate = 62,006:100K
37.1% adults have rec'ed at east 1 dose
GEORGIA
3/9 peaked w/1,881 new cases; 4/25 = 901 (43% down)
Vax rate = 55,798:100K
33.9% adults 1 or more doses
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6/ ALABAMA
3/20 = 508 new cases; 4/25 = 233 (-52%)
Vax rate = 50,404:100K
31.5% vax'ed 1 or more dose
MISSISSIPPI
3/17 = 352; 4/25 = 0
Vax rate = 51,093:100K
30.2% adults
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7/ MINNESOTA
4/12 = 1,993 new cases; 4/21 = 233 (-86%)
Vax rate = 73,032:100K
44.9% adults at least 1 dose vax
WISCONSIN
3/26 = 823 new cases; 4/25 = 465 (-43%)
Vax rate = 76,550:100K
44.6% adults at least 1 dose
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8/OHIO
4/15 = 2918 new cases; 4/25 = 873 (-69%)
vax rate = 68,464/100K
39.4% adults at least 1 dose vax
Sorry this isn't a spread sheet, but if you go thru the thread it's clear rates of vaccination aren't correlated with % declines in new cases. In Israel vaxes...
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9/ ...didn't drive down infection rates until more than half of the populations were fully vaccinated. Indeed, after 84% of >70 yr olds had BOTH doses @pfizer there was a 67% drop in new cases. healio.com/news/infectiou….
We aren't there by any means. So other factors -- MORE

10/...have been key to decline in new cases SO FAR. The @WhiteHouse & @CDCgov have been consistent in messaging on this all spring.
If we can reach Israeli vax rates across America, we can truly CELEBRATE the #COVID19 #vaccines and feel confident case levels will keep dropping.