OK, to all those trashing my tweet on the national downturn in new cases & relationship to #COVID19 #vaccines, let's do the numbers. Drawing from @CDCgov & @CovidTracker data, for key States, compare high daily cases in latest surge, latest tally & vax rates per 100K pop.
THREAD
2/This is doses admin'ed, so majority are 1-dose/persn.
Example: MARYLAND
Reported 1,084 new cases on April 13, down to 906 on 4/24 -- a 16% drop.
And it's latest vax rate is 74,859:100K, which is above average.
46% of adults have had 1 or both doses vax.
MORE
3/Few States have vax rates as high as MD.
More
MICHIGAN
New cases 4/13 = 10,083. 4/24 = 5,052
48% drop
Vax rate = 67,787/100K
41.2% adults have had 1 or 2 doses
CALIFORNIA
3/25 = 2,485 cases; 4/24 = 2241 -- a 9% drop
Vax rate 72,865/100K; 46.8% adults at least 1 dose
MORE
4/ FLORIDA
4/7 = 5,885 new cases; 4/25 = 4,671 (20% drop)
Vax rate = 67,339:100K
40.2% adults at least 1 dose
NY
3/29 = 8,972; 4/24 = 4,163 (54% drop)
Vax rate = 75,734:100K
45.7% adults at least 1 dose
MORE
5/ TEXAS
3/14 = 2,729 new cases; 4/25 = 1,496 (48% drop)
Vax rate = 62,006:100K
37.1% adults have rec'ed at east 1 dose
GEORGIA
3/9 peaked w/1,881 new cases; 4/25 = 901 (43% down)
Vax rate = 55,798:100K
33.9% adults 1 or more doses
MORE
6/ ALABAMA
3/20 = 508 new cases; 4/25 = 233 (-52%)
Vax rate = 50,404:100K
31.5% vax'ed 1 or more dose
MISSISSIPPI
3/17 = 352; 4/25 = 0
Vax rate = 51,093:100K
30.2% adults
MORE
7/ MINNESOTA
4/12 = 1,993 new cases; 4/21 = 233 (-86%)
Vax rate = 73,032:100K
44.9% adults at least 1 dose vax
WISCONSIN
3/26 = 823 new cases; 4/25 = 465 (-43%)
Vax rate = 76,550:100K
44.6% adults at least 1 dose
MORE
8/OHIO
4/15 = 2918 new cases; 4/25 = 873 (-69%)
vax rate = 68,464/100K
39.4% adults at least 1 dose vax
Sorry this isn't a spread sheet, but if you go thru the thread it's clear rates of vaccination aren't correlated with % declines in new cases. In Israel vaxes...
MORE
9/ ...didn't drive down infection rates until more than half of the populations were fully vaccinated. Indeed, after 84% of >70 yr olds had BOTH doses @pfizer there was a 67% drop in new cases. healio.com/news/infectiou….
We aren't there by any means. So other factors -- MORE
10/...have been key to decline in new cases SO FAR. The @WhiteHouse & @CDCgov have been consistent in messaging on this all spring.
If we can reach Israeli vax rates across America, we can truly CELEBRATE the #COVID19 #vaccines and feel confident case levels will keep dropping.

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

27 Apr
The @WhiteHouse #COVID19 presser now...U.S. giving #India 60M doses @AstraZeneca vaccines. U.S. "really hopeful decline" of 7% in new cases compared to last week. If you are vax'ed says @CDCDirector you can
- no masks in sml outdoor gatherings
- see below
Image
Fauci is now discussing variants vs vaccines
what works? Image
P.1 Brazil variant Image
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
OK, Santorum, derivations of these words, please:
Minnesota (mni-sota)
Dakota (a Sioux nation)
Michigan (mishigami)
Chicago (Shikaakwa)
Erie (an Iroquoian nation)
Huron
Takoma (*təqʷúməʔ)
Cheyenne (a Plains nation)
Mississippi (Ojibwe misiziibi)
Oklahoma (okla homa)
MORE
Wyoming (xwé:wamənk)
Alabama (Alibamu)
Missouri (the Missouri nation)
Indiana (Algonquin for "Indian land")
Alaska (alaxsxaq)
Arizona (ali ṣona-g)
Kansas (kką:ze)
Miami (the Mayaimi nation)
Idaho (ídaahę́)
Iowa (ayuxwe)
Massachusetts (Massachusêuck)
Nebraska (ñįbraske)
MORE
New Mexico (Mēxihco)
Ohio (ohi:yo’)
Tennessee (Tanasi)
Texas (táyshaʔ)
Utah (yúdah)
Illinois (ilenweewa)
Potomac River (Patawomeck)
Topeka (dóppikʔe)
Housatonic River (usi-a-di-en-uk)
Manhattan (man-ǎ-hǎ-tonh)
Witchita (a Plains nation)
Milwaukee (millioke)
MORE
Read 4 tweets
8 Apr
The National Intelligence Council NIC released its 2040 forecast, which will guide #Biden Admin. It begins noting how radically #COVI19 has shaken the world:
"Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future?"
MORE
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
2/ "Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 Sept 2001, the #COVID19 #pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years & change the way we live, work, & govern domestically & internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question."
MORE
3/ The NIC 2040 forecasts 5 scenarios for the world's future.
In Scenario 1 democracy enjoys a revival all over the world, as #COVID19 shows that dictatorships & populist leaders fail their people in combatting the virus & #ClimateChange .
MORE
Read 8 tweets
6 Apr
Let's take another look at the excitement many feel about an mRNA-based #HIV #vaccine and be clear about what is real, and what is hope.
In a monkey model, challenged with a simian version of HIV, the animals are protected against infection.
MORE
aidsmap.com/news/mar-2021/…
2/ Researchers @IAVI & @scrippsresearch tested an mRNA HIV vaccine in Phase 1 trial -- 97% of recipient people made antibodies against HIV.
MORE
iavi.org/news-resources…
3/ There has been promise before with HIV vaccines --- only to fail in larger human trials. So caution...
But @moderna_tx is working on a mRNA HIV vaccine that has engendered some enthusiasm.
MORE
poz.com/article/scient…
Read 4 tweets
22 Mar
The @AstraZeneca company had to conduct new Phase 3 trials to garner possible approval from @US_FDA & results are just out, via press release:

- "79% #vaccine efficacy at preventing symptomatic #COVID19
- 100% efficacy against severe disease & hospit."

astrazeneca.com
More
@AstraZeneca says there were no racial or ethnic diffs in #vaccine response (but 79% of test subjs were Caucasian)
"The vaccine was well tolerated...no safety concerns...no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterised by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants" MORE
3/@AstraZeneca
"The #vaccine can be stored, transported and handled at normal refrigerated conditions (2-8 degrees Celsius or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months and administered without the need for preparation within existing healthcare settings."
MORE #COVID19
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
It's the worst dust storm in Asia in at least a decade.
PM 2.5: Beijing measured 655 micrograms/meter cubed today. @WHO says >25 PM2.5 is unsafe.
From Mongolia, the sandstorm gradually moved southward.
cnn.com/2021/03/15/asi…
MORE
Dust/2
The conditions for dust storms (drought, destruction of ground cover & trees, very high winds) are linked to #ClimateChange and human destruction of the environment. MORE
tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Dust/3
Mongolia, in particular, has seen a steady increase over the last 20 years in both the frequency and severity of massive dust storms, blanketing much of northern China before ending up over the Pacific Ocean.
MORE
jstor.org/stable/2638856…
Read 4 tweets

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