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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
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8 Apr, 8 tweets, 5 min read
The National Intelligence Council NIC released its 2040 forecast, which will guide #Biden Admin. It begins noting how radically #COVI19 has shaken the world:
"Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future?"
MORE
dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
2/ "Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 Sept 2001, the #COVID19 #pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years & change the way we live, work, & govern domestically & internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question."
MORE
3/ The NIC 2040 forecasts 5 scenarios for the world's future.
In Scenario 1 democracy enjoys a revival all over the world, as #COVID19 shows that dictatorships & populist leaders fail their people in combatting the virus & #ClimateChange .
MORE
4/ In Scenario 2 of the NIC2040 rpt the world is dangerously adrift, "In 2040, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules & institutions are largely ignored by major powers such as China, regional players, and nonstate
actors."
MORE
5/ In Scenario 3 of NIC2040 rpt key nations are political & economic competitors, but "The risk of major war is low & intl cooperation & tech innovation make global problems manageable over the near term for advanced economies, but longer term #climate challenges remain."
MORE
6/In NIC2040 4th scenario, "the world is fragmented into several econom & security blocs of varying size & strength, centered on U.S., China, the EU, Russia & a few regional powers...focused on self-sufficiency & defense. Info flows w/in separate cyber-sovereign enclaves.."
MORE
7/ and in its final scenario NIC2040 see "a global food catastrophe caused by #climate events & environmental degradation. Richer countries shift to help poorer ones...transition to low carbon economies through broad aid programs..."
MORE
8/ No matter which NIC2040 scenario plays out over the next 19 years, we are, as a world community and as Americans, in for a bumpy ride.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
6 Apr
Let's take another look at the excitement many feel about an mRNA-based #HIV #vaccine and be clear about what is real, and what is hope.
In a monkey model, challenged with a simian version of HIV, the animals are protected against infection.
MORE
aidsmap.com/news/mar-2021/…
2/ Researchers @IAVI & @scrippsresearch tested an mRNA HIV vaccine in Phase 1 trial -- 97% of recipient people made antibodies against HIV.
MORE
iavi.org/news-resources…
3/ There has been promise before with HIV vaccines --- only to fail in larger human trials. So caution...
But @moderna_tx is working on a mRNA HIV vaccine that has engendered some enthusiasm.
MORE
poz.com/article/scient…
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
22 Mar
The @AstraZeneca company had to conduct new Phase 3 trials to garner possible approval from @US_FDA & results are just out, via press release:

- "79% #vaccine efficacy at preventing symptomatic #COVID19
- 100% efficacy against severe disease & hospit."

astrazeneca.com
More
@AstraZeneca says there were no racial or ethnic diffs in #vaccine response (but 79% of test subjs were Caucasian)
"The vaccine was well tolerated...no safety concerns...no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterised by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants" MORE
3/@AstraZeneca
"The #vaccine can be stored, transported and handled at normal refrigerated conditions (2-8 degrees Celsius or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months and administered without the need for preparation within existing healthcare settings."
MORE #COVID19
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
15 Mar
It's the worst dust storm in Asia in at least a decade.
PM 2.5: Beijing measured 655 micrograms/meter cubed today. @WHO says >25 PM2.5 is unsafe.
From Mongolia, the sandstorm gradually moved southward.
cnn.com/2021/03/15/asi…
MORE
Dust/2
The conditions for dust storms (drought, destruction of ground cover & trees, very high winds) are linked to #ClimateChange and human destruction of the environment. MORE
tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Dust/3
Mongolia, in particular, has seen a steady increase over the last 20 years in both the frequency and severity of massive dust storms, blanketing much of northern China before ending up over the Pacific Ocean.
MORE
jstor.org/stable/2638856…
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
11 Mar
So, let's take a little walk down memory lane on treatment of Chinese in the USA. In 1871 in Los Angeles, 10% of Chinatown was slaughtered in a single night.
lapl.org/collections-re…
It was the worst lynching in a single day of US history:
MORE
2/The Rock Springs massacre, Wyoming, September 2, 1885: White miners slaughtered Chinese men, accusing them of "stealing jobs". At least 28 were murdered and most Chinese homes were burned to the ground. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock_Spri…
It led to tense diplomacy between US & China.
MORE
3/On May 6, 1882 Pres. Chester Arthur signed the Chinese Exclusion Act, prohibiting all immigration of Chinese laborers. On May 5, 1892 Congress passed the Geary Act, requiring all Chinese to carry a resident permit at all times, punishable by deportation or a year of hard labor.
Read 9 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
27 Feb
For clues to the future of out #COVID19 fight pay heed to #Sirael, which has vaccinated the >est % of its population of any country.
Can it achieve herd immunity & "return to normal"?
MORE
foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/17/wha…
Israel/2
No doubt about it, death and severe hospitalization rates in Israel have plummeted, especially for vaccinated >60-year-olds.
MORE
Israel/3
And the @pfizer #COVID19 #vaccine has slashed actual symptomatic infections by a whopping 94%.
MORE

en.globes.co.il/en/article-cla…
Read 6 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
25 Feb
ATTN, New Yorkers: There's a new type of #SARSCoV2 in town -- a mutant that may outwit our #COVID19 #vaccines.
Here's what we know so far:
1.) A @Caltech team has been screening viral samples from USA and noted a new mutant appeared in November in NYC, dubbing it B.1.526.
MORE
2/ The @Caltech team says B.1.526 variant is spreading fast in NYC, now ='ing 27.8% of all new infections.
This virus has 2 key mutations that may make it dangerous. Both, alter the spike proteins that protrude from #SARSCoV2 & attach to human cells.
MORE
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/ One mutation in NY's B.1.526 variant form of #SARSCoV2 is E484K -- this is the mutation point that makes the so-called South African and Brazil variants capable of evading antibodies and rendering some of the #COVID19 #vaccines far less effective.
MORE
Read 10 tweets

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