#Thread Qatar Geopolitical Tango in HoA 1/n
Qatar initial stop at Somaliland was seen as pivoting from Somalia, but I think it’s beyond pivoting:
Qatar's goal is to restore its image as a peacemaker since it was accused of undermining Somalia's instability through Fahad Yasin.
It's possible that Qatar would request @musebihi to allow them to mediate Somaliland & Somalia talks and promise that @M_Farmaajo will not return, this will lift the Farmaajo economic embargo against Somaliland. One would ask how that is going to happen? 2/n
The Qatari delegate met with some of the opposition leaders in Mogadishu declaring that they already cut ties with Fahad and won't fund the Farmaajo election. In addition, Qatar promised to open a diplomatic mission in Hargeysa and bring Qatar Airways
Qatar is eyeing on “Hawiye Oil blocks” aka Galmudug oil blocks & oil blocks in the maritime disputed zone as Qatar acquired oil blocks adjacent to this zone: likely intention is to get d first drilling right regardless of the outcome of the maritime case b/w Kenya & Somalia. 4/n
Qatar is grooming the next Somalia president from this Galmaudug, so far candidates are, @HassanAKhaire @AHGuled @DahirMGelle both Dahir & Abdikarin are accused of being Islamist and Farmaajo apologist, Guled's wife is Somali Amb to Pakistan, while Geele worked for Farmaajo. 5/n
Geele was the Saudi favored candidate for the PM role when Farmaajo won the election in 2017, but Farmaajo allies sabotaged the deal and Khaire became the default PM. Now Qatar has restored relation with Saudi, but he is said to be their 2/3rd option 6/n
Qatar's 1st/2nd option is Khaire/ Abdikarin, Khaire still connected to Som Oil and Galmdug oil blocks and has lots of cash, but Qatar has keen interests in Abidikarin Guled. Interestingly, the Qatar Amb. to Pakistan met with his wife who is also the Somali Amb to Pakistan. 7/n
Guled and wife are alleged to have mismanaged $40M from an Iraqi contractor over the Hobyo Port deal when she was Somali ambassador to Iraq while her husband Abdikarin Guled at the time was Galmudug president. 8/n
For Qatar to be seen as a non-terrorist sponsor state in Somalia, it should replace immediately its current Amb to Somalia, Hassan bin Hamza Hashem whose caught on tape discussing " the bombing and killing in Puntland" and stop interfering in the Somalia election 9/n
Time will tell if Qatar continues to sponsor terrorism in Somalia in post-Framaajo or pivot from terrorism and follow the UAE model in HoA who has invested billions to connect HoA trade hubs to the Gulf regions and EU. The end.

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More from @GuledWiliq

22 Mar
#mondaythoughts Sharif Legacy
Before #Hirshabelle formation, Hiiraan admin was well managed, they controlled from Som-Ethio border to Jalalaqsi almost 140km stretch including Matabaan even Sharif visited #Beledwayne without Amisom presence. Sharif had an apportunity...cont.
improved and strengten Hiiraan admin, but chose to bring AMISOM and insecurity ensued to date. Similarly, @HESharifShAhmed dissolved #BenadirState admin and paved his successors to abuse Mogadishu citizens who are taxed without representation. Rather redeem his political mistakes
He is against #BenadirState to have 13 senators and included in the electoral process, but ok Somaliland & Gedo to be included who don't pay god damn taxes- worse an Ethiopian @KhadarGulaid & Hashi Senate leader are unconstitutionally given a power to select Somaliland MPs.
Read 4 tweets
1 Mar
#Thread All quiet on the home front: Since joining congress in 2017, @IlhanMN has bravely spoken about human rights issues in China, Turkey, Kashmir, Saudi Arabia & Yemen. But the congresswoman has been conspicuously quiet about Somalia. 1/4
Campaigning for @M_Farmaajo in 2017, @IlhanMN claimed that Somalis should filter out the bad news from Somalia. While in congress, this is exactly what has happened. The current admin of Farmaajo has run a vicious war against dissidents, media and the political opposition 2/4
@amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have done an admirable job documenting the war against democracy in Somalia. @ilhanMN’s silence is a disservice to her constituency, many who happen to be of Somali descent. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep 20
#MahadayWayne pre & post-colonial climate change impacts and lack of infrastructure development #Thread
The town is one of the major breadbaskets of Somalia at the Shabelle river. it's extremely vulnerable to floods and droughts. in 1920s it became an Italian colonial army base
The town historic bridge was built in the 1920s, it's structurally obsolete, yet its the most critical infrastructure for the agriculture supply chain, and it's not prioritized in the 2020 -2024 National Development Plan.
The town experience annually flood damages that exceeds $120M based on business community estimate who export sesame and other commodities. The current FGS has completely neglected these major towns within Shablle belt that contribute 60% of somalia GDP.
Read 6 tweets
31 Jul 19
Post Genale Dawa III Dam NEGATIVE impacts:
1-typically Juba river fills up late March based on 90% probability historical flow shown on Figure-2 from our study, but based on @FAOSWALIM chart at Luuq, it shows drought extension from April- May & photo taken on late April confirms
2-This photo by @UNmigration Juba River at Dolow shows dried up condition in late April.
3- GD3 will impact existing irrigation projects water, let alone future infrastructure investment
4- Ethiopia is planning 2 built 2 more dams GD-5 & GD-6 w/o notifying #Somalia @moewr_so
To do list for FGS:
1- write protest LETTER to Ethiopia gov & @AfDB_Group to stop & desist any future dams that has negative impacted Juba & Shabelle River future water rights.
2-set up water expert committee to explore water trasboundry treaty with Ethiopia per @WorldBank
Read 5 tweets
31 Jan 19
Fact check Thread about @igadsecretariat Genale- Dawa River Basin impacts Juba River in #Somalia :
1- this agreement only addresses Dawa River, which contributes 10% to Juba vs. 90% Genale & Weebi rivers from #Ethiopia
2- This deal only benefits #kenya
3-Article 4 requires each gov pays its own study- the priblem is #Somalia is aid dependent country; thus if it can't afford feasibility study, then #Kenya Dawa River study will govern, which could foreclose 10% future water rights of Juba River riprian permanently.
4- the dawa river deal will secure future water right & addresses the #ClimateChange of Mandhere county- unfortunately #Somalia gov failed to recognize a) #Ethiopia gov for excluded Genale River as part of the deal because of recent GD-3 dams built & 3 more dams planned in 2020
Read 6 tweets

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