Exciting news, fellow data nerds: We've calculated the results of the 2020 presidential race for the Virginia state House, where all 100 seats will be up in November! dkel.ec/3nUMcaz
The toplines: Biden won 60 districts, Trump won 40. All Dems sit in Biden seats, so there are five Biden-R districts. But the 2020 results aren't destiny, and Democrats will largely be playing defense this year

Summary of all results here: dkel.ec/33ll4YZ
One of the most vulnerable Democrats is Del. Christ Hurst, whose SW VA #HD12 voted 52-46 for Biden—the least-blue district held by a Dem. Many other districts where Dems face tough re-elections are in the Virginia Beach area. These also are among the less-blue seats
Another tough one for Ds is #HD75 in Southside (along the NC border), held by Roz Tyler. This district went 53-46 for Biden but was one of just 11 (out of 100) in the whole state that got redder on the presidential level between 2016 & 2020. Tyler had a narrow escape in 2019
Important to note that VA will use the *same* map as it did in 2019 due to delays in the production of census data. You can find detailed calculations for every district here: dkel.ec/2QWnHOf
And tho Dems are largely trying to protect their 55-45 majority this year, the party does have some pickup targets. Perhaps the best is #HD66 in the Richmond area, which went 54-44 for Biden. Former House Speaker Kirk Cox has left it open to run for governor
It's important to remember, though, that Biden's performance is not destiny, especially in a lower-turout off-year election. We even saw this last year. For instance, in NH, the GOP took back the lege even tho Biden won a majority of seats dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…
Of course VA is different from NH (there's no super-popular GOP gov seeking re-election, for one), but off-year electorates hadn't been particularly kind to Dems prior to 2017 & 2019. What kind of turnout we see in the post-Trump era is *the* big question
We'll take a more in-depth look at all the key VA House races later this year, once nominations are settled. And we'll be bringing you more states soon. For now, if you haven't yet, you can bookmark all of our district-level data right here: dailykos.com/stories/2013/0…
One addendum: 63% of VA votes (any cast before e-day) were not assigned to precincts. We used our Total Ballot method to distribute these, described in detail here: dkel.ec/3b3SCiG

We have a lot of confidence in this method, since we've tested it in states w/better data
But it does mean that these are estimates, and they have unknowable error bars. They're unlikely to be more than 1% in either direction, but in close races, they can matter. So #HD54, which went for Trump by 13 votes, might in fact have voted for Biden

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More from @DKElections

21 Apr
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present the first installment in our project to calculate the results of the 2020 presidential election for the nation’s 6,766 legislative districts, starting with New Hampshire! dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…
Joe Biden carried New Hampshire 53-45 and won districts representing 232/400 state House members, but the GOP flipped the chamber and took a 213-187 majority.
One big reason for Team Red's legislative win likely involves #NHGOV Chris Sununu, who won 64-34 and carried an extraordinary 366/400 House seats.
Read 11 tweets
20 Apr
Our comprehensive first quarter fundraising roundups are here! We've included every incumbent (except those retiring) and any notable announced or potential challengers. First up is the House dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…
And here's the Senate dailykos.com/stories/2021/4…
And if you want to play around with all of our fundraising data, you can download a copy of our spreadsheet right here (note that there are two separate tabs, one for each chamber) docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
BIG NEWS: We're excited to announce that with the release of Pennsylvania, Daily Kos Elections now has the 2020 presidential results complete for all 435 congressional districts in America! dailykos.com/stories/2021/2…
With PA complete, we now know that Biden carried 224 congressional districts while Donald Trump prevailed in 211. You can find the results for each seat here dailykos.com/stories/2012/1…
Seven Democrats hold seats that Trump won while nine Republicans represents districts that went for Biden. PA is the one state home to both a “Biden-Republican” and a “Trump-Democrat." #PA01 #PA08
Read 14 tweets
6 Jan
Polls have closed in Georgia, and we'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here! dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
You'll want to have this bookmarked: Our county benchmarks, which will give us an idea if each candidate is getting the numbers they need. dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Getting our first few hundred votes. As always: Friends don't let friends over-interpret small numbers of votes.
Read 54 tweets
14 Dec 20
We've got a big one for ya—real big: 2020 presidential results for all 53 of California's congressional districts! dkel.ec/383yVVJ
Three of the most interesting results came in seats Dems won in '18 but the GOP flipped in '20: #CA21, #CA25, and #CA39. Republicans won all three by about 1 pt, but Biden carried each district by around 10 pts, suggesting a lot of ticket-splitting
That wasn't the case in the GOP's fourth flip, #CA48, which Biden carried by 2 but Republican Michelle Steel won by 2. Still an overperformance, but not as dramatic. Both parties will want to study these races to understand the crossover vote
Read 6 tweets
3 Jun 20
19% of precincts reporting (all in Luzerne County) in #PA08 GOP primary to take on Dem Rep. Matt Cartwright. Former Trump admin official Jim Bognet leads 43-19
16% of precincts reporting in #PA01 Dem primary to take on Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and Christina Finello leads 76-24. She became front runner after a better-funded opponent dropped out after filing deadline
48% of precincts reporting in #IN05 primaries. On Dem side, Christina Hale's lead has expanded to 39-27. For GOP, Victoria Spartz still up 39-19
Read 62 tweets

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