Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #HartlepoolByElection

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What is the lesson from #HartlepoolByElection for forecasting future elections?

I have 2 hypotheses.

1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.

Let's look at them... /1
The 1st can be confirmed just by looking at CON vote share changes between 2010 & 2019 in Hartlepool's 4 neighbours.

Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%

So the jump ...

... to 52% in this by-election can be put down to #Hartlepool copying its neighbours 2 years late.

But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?

The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...

Read 10 tweets
Fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted Tory in #GE2019.

Of the 30 lowest constituency turnouts, all bar one were in the north of England. In 287 constituencies (44%), turnout was less than two-thirds of the electorate.

In the #HartlepoolByElection, just 22% voted Tory.
The turnout in #Hartlepool was just 42.3%, but this is still a significant increase on the 2018 local elections, when the percentage of registered voters who returned a ballot in Hartlepool was the lowest in the country, at just 24.2%
In #GE2019, turnout tended to be higher than average in constituencies with a larger proportion of older residents.

Also, 26 seats were won with majorities of less than 2%, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10%, within an overall average turnout of 67.3%.
Read 4 tweets
The analysis of electoral results is full of distortion, just like pre-electoral advertising lies and soon to come lies in a battle of lefty agendas.

A system that at every level builds lies is corrupt. It guarantees the worst outcome for all

So what do the data say?⬇️
First GE19 (Hartlepool context)

Corbyn...honestly, I think he was a strategic disaster for Labour, but it's dishonest to say he was the main reason LAB lost.

It's also a lie to say #Brexit lost it.

The overwhelming and unaddressed factors?
Turnout, Split Votes 1/
Of the multiple datasets showing this, you can see more in Prof Theimo's excellent analysis [

Or dig further into on what the problem was; see the exhaustive […] 2/
Read 9 tweets
Despite today's ridiculous rhetoric & preposterous punditry, know that fewer than 3 in 10 of the UK *electorate* voted for the #sociopathic Tories in 2019, & just 22% voted Tory in the #HartlepoolByElection.

But 'what's the difference between a sociopath & a psychopath' you say?
Why would I say Tories are 'sociopathic'?

Psychopaths & sociopaths share a similar set of traits: they both have a poor inner sense of right & wrong, & they both lack empathy - they can’t seem to understand or share another person’s feelings. But there are some differences, too.
One difference between psychopaths & sociopaths is psychopaths don’t have a conscience. If they lie to you in order to steal your money, they won’t feel any moral qualms, though they may pretend to. They may observe others & then act in a way that ensures they're not “found out".
Read 12 tweets
Before the spin starts here is the truth regarding #LocalElections2021.
@UKLabour will have a disappointing night but in the area’s they lose to Cons the numbers matter. Close numbers mean people are being to consider Labour again after a decimation...
.@Conservatives were always going to win the #HartlepoolByElection. The most extensive leaving seat in the UK voting for the Vote leave Govt is no surprise & for journalists to spin it is a reflection on their intention, Cons will lose in Wales & Scotland fact...
Every seat Cons win with lies is another step towards the break up of the UK; the Cons have run up 2.5 trillion of debt we have just had two years of 0 growth far from levelling austerity will be needed even if CCHQ spin says different...
Read 4 tweets

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