Daily avg jabs are now 1.8M indicating acute vaccine shortage whether GoI admits it or not.
It means 18-45 yrs who are better positioned to register on CoWIN & at lesser risk of dying are using the limited doses & depriving the more vulnerable
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Avg. daily jabs have declined from a peak of 3.7m to 1.8m (51% fall over the past month)
Many vulnerable & aged have to reschedule their visits multiple times to get jabs which increase their risk of exposure significantly
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Until the vaccine supply is increased & can be ensured at a minimum of 5m doses/day, the GoI should immediately stop the 18+ vaccination drive.
This is extremely important to reduce the risk of deaths among the most vulnerable population.
It's been a month since @ICMRDELHI has been reporting at least 100K fewer tests than the tests reported by all states combined. This discrepancy has been growing & is over 3L for the past several weeks.
What does it mean? What implications?
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In the past, this difference used to get reconciled over time. But, this time, this difference is so large & not been reconciled for a long time.
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Few plausible reasons: 1) ICMR only reports tests coming from its own approved labs & states maybe adding testing numbers from unrecognized labs too
2)States inflating the testing numbers on paper for various reasons
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Some epi models predict 8L-10L daily #COVID19 cases in India in the next 2-3 weeks. In all likelihood, India is already having that many daily infections. However, will India ever report that many daily new cases?
My guess: our reported cases will not go >5L to 6L!
why?
1/4
The daily growth of tests has been much lower than that of daily cases for the past 1 month.
The avg. TPR now is 18%. Our avg. daily testing now is 16L.
At the current TPR, it'd take 33L daily tests to report 6L cases, i.e., more than double the current daily testing.
2/4
TPR has also been on a steady growth path & even if we assume the TPR to reach 20%-25% in the coming weeks, it'd need 32L to 40L daily testing for us to report 8L cases. I believe, it is nearly impossible at the current level of testing & its rate of growth.
3/4
It is to be noted that the policy shift in the government of India’s #COVID19 vaccination has come at a time when the daily inoculations of #COVID19 vaccines have been on a steady decline going down from a daily average of 3.7M to 2.7M in the past two weeks. 1/5
Domestic supply constraints & the Union government’s failure to ensure vaccine supply commensurate with demand from different states were evident on vaccine delivery so far.
2/5
This new liberalized policy could shift the onus of vaccine procurement to meet the demand onto the state governments, something the Union government itself has not been quite successful in the past as reflected in the slow pace of vaccination. 3/5
#Kerala is seeing a steady increase of new #COVID19 cases & Test +ve rates.
👉It accounts for >40% of all new cases in India
👉Testing is pretty stagnated
👉Vaccination has been at a very low pace too. Only 47K Beneficiaries so far, while neighboring Karnataka did 1.83L 1/
The only solace has been a relatively low mortality rate compared to the rest of the country. This mortality rate has also seen a marginal increase in recent times. There are also discrepancies in reported deaths between some district administrations and the state. 2/
19 Nov: #India crossed 9M reported #COVID19 cases & 132202 deaths. 4.4L active cases
👉1M new cases & 12.1K deaths added in the past 23 days. The previous 1L cases were added in 18 days.
*⃣Follow this data thread to know important trends national, state & district level*⃣ 1/
👉Cases growing at 0.44% (it was 0.57% at 8M)
👉Steady fall in 7-day avg. daily new cases seem to have halted for now
👉Daily active cases still in -ve territory
👉Daily tests averaged 9.3L past 7 days (down from 10.5 at 8M)
👉Daily deaths ~500 (It was 511 at 8M) 2/
👉Growth of tests slightly above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 4.2% and has been <5% level for 30 days now.
👉only 5.88 (45.4%) of the 12.96 crores tests so far are RT-PCR
👉Testing (whether RT-PCR or Rapid Antigen) need to increase significantly 3/