Thread on COVID testing data

It's been a month since @ICMRDELHI has been reporting at least 100K fewer tests than the tests reported by all states combined. This discrepancy has been growing & is over 3L for the past several weeks.

What does it mean? What implications?
In the past, this difference used to get reconciled over time. But, this time, this difference is so large & not been reconciled for a long time.
Few plausible reasons:
1) ICMR only reports tests coming from its own approved labs & states maybe adding testing numbers from unrecognized labs too
2)States inflating the testing numbers on paper for various reasons
For us to verify if states are inflating the numbers & if so which states, we need to have daily state-level data on testing as reported by @ICMRDELHI. However, no such data released ICMR. It only provides a daily national aggregate testing number.

1) Nationally reported test positivity rates based on ICMR testing numbers isn't a true representation of TPR in different states
2) Unless the state testing numbers aren't corroborated by ICMR, it isn't clear what to make of reported daily tests/TPRs from states

India has a major data problem while dealing with this pandemic! Accurate testing data is only one such problem.

Maybe this is something our COVID data journalists could probe further.

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More from @RijoMJohn

5 May
Thread on #COVID19Vaccination

Daily avg jabs are now 1.8M indicating acute vaccine shortage whether GoI admits it or not.

It means 18-45 yrs who are better positioned to register on CoWIN & at lesser risk of dying are using the limited doses & depriving the more vulnerable

Avg. daily jabs have declined from a peak of 3.7m to 1.8m (51% fall over the past month)

Many vulnerable & aged have to reschedule their visits multiple times to get jabs which increase their risk of exposure significantly

Until the vaccine supply is increased & can be ensured at a minimum of 5m doses/day, the GoI should immediately stop the 18+ vaccination drive.

This is extremely important to reduce the risk of deaths among the most vulnerable population.

@MoHFW_INDIA @drharshvardhan
Read 4 tweets
4 May
India's reported #COVID19 cases have crossed 2cr (20M)

The daily chart suggests a peak/plateau. However, this is NOT natural.

This 'peak' has followed reduced daily testing.

From a peak of 19.5L daily tests on Apr 30, our daily testing has been on a consistent decline!
Yesterday's daily testing was only 16.6L despite being a regular Monday!

It appears that we are forcing an artificial peak with reduced testing!

The consistent reduction in testing started just as we crossed 400K cases!

Something quite similar had happened during the previous peak last year too.

The day daily new cases touched 98K & everyone was expecting India to cross 1L daily cases, the daily testing began going down

Tests did go up after a gap of few days only to see reduced cases!

Read 4 tweets
23 Apr
Some epi models predict 8L-10L daily #COVID19 cases in India in the next 2-3 weeks. In all likelihood, India is already having that many daily infections. However, will India ever report that many daily new cases?

My guess: our reported cases will not go >5L to 6L!


The daily growth of tests has been much lower than that of daily cases for the past 1 month.

The avg. TPR now is 18%. Our avg. daily testing now is 16L.

At the current TPR, it'd take 33L daily tests to report 6L cases, i.e., more than double the current daily testing.

TPR has also been on a steady growth path & even if we assume the TPR to reach 20%-25% in the coming weeks, it'd need 32L to 40L daily testing for us to report 8L cases. I believe, it is nearly impossible at the current level of testing & its rate of growth.

Read 4 tweets
20 Apr
It is to be noted that the policy shift in the government of India’s #COVID19 vaccination has come at a time when the daily inoculations of #COVID19 vaccines have been on a steady decline going down from a daily average of 3.7M to 2.7M in the past two weeks.
Domestic supply constraints & the Union government’s failure to ensure vaccine supply commensurate with demand from different states were evident on vaccine delivery so far.
This new liberalized policy could shift the onus of vaccine procurement to meet the demand onto the state governments, something the Union government itself has not been quite successful in the past as reflected in the slow pace of vaccination.
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
#Kerala is seeing a steady increase of new #COVID19 cases & Test +ve rates.
👉It accounts for >40% of all new cases in India
👉Testing is pretty stagnated
👉Vaccination has been at a very low pace too. Only 47K Beneficiaries so far, while neighboring Karnataka did 1.83L
The only solace has been a relatively low mortality rate compared to the rest of the country. This mortality rate has also seen a marginal increase in recent times. There are also discrepancies in reported deaths between some district administrations and the state.
Districts like #Ernakulam, #Alappuzha, and #Pathanamthitta are seeing the maximum increase of new cases in recent days!
Read 6 tweets
20 Nov 20
19 Nov: #India crossed 9M reported #COVID19 cases & 132202 deaths. 4.4L active cases
👉1M new cases & 12.1K deaths added in the past 23 days. The previous 1L cases were added in 18 days.

*⃣Follow this data thread to know important trends national, state & district level*⃣
1/ Image
👉Cases growing at 0.44% (it was 0.57% at 8M)
👉Steady fall in 7-day avg. daily new cases seem to have halted for now
👉Daily active cases still in -ve territory
👉Daily tests averaged 9.3L past 7 days (down from 10.5 at 8M)
👉Daily deaths ~500 (It was 511 at 8M)
2/ Image
👉Growth of tests slightly above that of cases now
👉Daily TPR at 4.2% and has been <5% level for 30 days now.
👉only 5.88 (45.4%) of the 12.96 crores tests so far are RT-PCR
👉Testing (whether RT-PCR or Rapid Antigen) need to increase significantly
3/ Image
Read 13 tweets

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