#mining #copper #tin
I have been asked by several people now about how to evaluate the management team for a project and what to look for and what to avoid. This thread hopefully will provide some good pointers.
Truth Number One:
A mediocre project with good management is a better investment than a great project with mediocre management.
Truth Number Two:
There is no such thing as a bad project with good management: good people just don't get involved with bad projects.
Truth Number Three:
The vast majority (>95%) of junior mining companies are either bad projects or come with bad or inexperienced management.
Unless you are qualified to technically analyse everything about a project and company (geology, metallurgy, politics, logistics, financial etc etc) then the best way to skew the odds in your favour when investing is to review the management team.
The best junior companies change mgmt and Board as they progress through discovery to resource definition, financing, construction and production. Different skills are required at each stage.
Questions you should ask:
1. How much of the company does the mgmt team and board own? (The more the better.)
If this is not a significant part of their own personal wealth then why would you trust them with your money?
2. What experience does the mgmt team have in this commodity, jurisdiction, geological setting, potential mine type (open-cast or underground) etc.
To be a World Class geologist is at best one third about intelligence, but at least two thirds about experience.
3. Who is on the Board? How much of the company do they own? Are they paid in stock or cash? Are the interests of directors aligned with shareholders? Is the Board cosmetic or adding real value? Who is promoting the stock?
4. What is the shareholder base?
All junior companies run out of money and need a sugar daddy otherwise ruinously dilutive stock issuance is a problem. If a couple of funds or institutions are +10% shareholders then this risk is greatly diminished. It also means they have done DD
5. Have I googled the background of each of the directors and mgmt team? Do they have a record of success technically and financially?
Who are the company's professional advisors / brokers / bankers / lawyers? Are these tier one or shysters?
Conclusion: Management is the single most important factor in skewing investment returns in your favour. Do your own research before investing. One single red-flag is good enough reason not to invest. Never fall in love with an asset - backing mgmt is a better strategy.

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More from @METhompson72

3 May
#copper
“The world’s top copper producer Chile saw output of the red metal fall for the tenth consecutive month in March, government statistics agency INE said on Friday.
Copper output fell 1.3% in March, to 491,720 tonnes, the agency said.”
#copper
Chile also introducing new restrictions on movement and commerce following the Southern Hemisphere’s summer holidays. I expect their already bad Covid situation to get worse as they move into their Winter / European Summer.
#copper
As I understand it most mines have had essential workers only on site - very few contractors allowed in. This means essential specialist work and maintenance has not been kept up to date with operating and mining plans.
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
#zinc
The global zinc market is, give or take, 13 million tonnes. China is far and away the largest producer with over a third of mine production and smelter capacity. Supply growth in China is static though with new mines barely replacing old mine capacity.
#zinc
Zinc’s main use is as a anti-corrosion coating on steel in the construction and automotive industries. This is called galvanization. Other uses include alloy (brass mainly) die-casting precision components and as a fertiliser additive.
#zinc
Consumption growth is highly correlated to Global economic growth - 2.5x geared to growth above/below 2.5%. (i.e. zero consumption growth at 2.5%, but 5% consumption GDP growth of 4.5%.)
Read 15 tweets
26 Apr
#tin
Tin is the 49th most abundant element within the Earth and has the chemical symbol Sn, which is derived from the Latin word “Stannum”. Crustal abundance is only 2 parts per million (“ppm”) compared with 75 ppm for zinc, 50 ppm for copper, and 14 ppm for lead.
#tin Tin mining dates back at least 4000 years to the Bronze Age, when tin was alloyed with copper to make bronze. Tin does not occur as the native element but must be extracted from oxide ores. Cassiterite (SnO2) is the only commercially important source of tin.
#tin Cassiterite is insoluble in water and erosional processes of deposits often results in placer deposits. Maybe 70% of all historic tin production has come from hydraulic mining or dredging of these alluvial type deposits, where grades as low as 0.015% tin can be economic.
Read 19 tweets
26 Apr
#Tin
The secret to tin investment is easy if you focus on 3 things: mineralogy, mineralogy and mineralogy.
#tin Cassiterite is THE ONLY commercially valuable tin mineral. Most hard rock tin deposits contain some stannite (tin sulphide) and tin silicates. Look at the cassiterite grade, NOT tin grade.
#tin Alluvial deposits are more attractive generally than hard rock as they are 100% cassiterite. Cassiterite is dense with a specific gravity of 7 so water action concentrates it in placer type deposits.
Read 6 tweets
26 Apr
#GOLD
Why you should only ever buy gold mining stocks and not gold.
#gold
This is going to make me unpopular with some of you, but I am going to explain why you should never buy gold. Do not confuse this with owning gold mining stocks though.
#gold
Gold is a store of value. This is true. In Roman times one ounce of gold would clothe a men nicely and the same is true today.
Read 9 tweets
26 Apr
#copper
A smelter buys a 30% copper concentrate at a TC of $40 + 40c / lb RC. This basis the LME copper price of $9,000 per tonne. The copper content of one tonne of concentrate is 300kg. (30% of 1t). It is worth $2,700 (0.3t x 9,000 per t)
#copper
So if a smelter buys at a TC of $10, they are buying copper at a discount of $55 only. Their costs are still $200. So if they hedge forward sell when they buy the concentrate they are locking in a loss of $145.
#copper
So bringing this thread all together and explaining what it means.
1. TC's are trading at a level where smelters cannot make money.
2. This can only happen when smelters have consumed all available profitable stocks
Read 5 tweets

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