I'll get hate for this thread.

Satoshi disappearing was best thing for #bitcoin. He knew it, he wanted TRUSTLESS system. No generals.

Seeing the cheer for every large institutional purchase, new wrapped products or centralizing custody of bitcoin, all run counter to Satoshi
I don't care if these institutions onboard people.

If they're not prepared to be involved the way it was intended, through a completely private and self-sovereign method, then the cheer-leading is not about bitcoin, but the price of bitcoin.
Same goes for the elevating of individuals like Saylor - Elon. Good or bad intentions, why build points of failure. Somebody leveraging their balance sheet to buy bitcoin is a stupid idea. That's only about a self-serving interest. What happened to coin for everyone.
I respect somebody trading for the return. They're honest at least.

But institutions want returns, not a new ideology to worship. And they exert influence to protect it.
When time comes their allegiance is to their returns and gains they can boast on a glossy color pitch deck.
The fact is, people talk about "this fixing everything" and changing the world, but 90% in the space actually don't give a shit about that no matter how many times they say it. That's because new entrants are not on-boarded for the same reasons anymore. ($$)
If only the community could bring the same passion they have for the technical decentralization elements of bitcoin (1mb block e.g) when it comes to the proliferation of bitcoin at all costs. Sadly, the community passed that fork some time ago.
Just like 2017 block wars, one more about the technology, this future fight is a natural consensus path Bitcoin must undertake.

Bitcoin represents money after all, and therefore a power struggle over money is inevitable.

That event or outcome represents risk to me.
I get this is not the most articulate thread or cryptic to some. Not intended.

Maybe it's the risk fanatic in me just over-pricing risk. My views focus on time.

But as a large and growing consensus based network, history shows majority consensus can be bought or influenced.
Just stating that outcomes vary exponentially the more complex the system and further in time.

Not an observation on price, a mania phase of the current cycle I doubt can be aborted.
But Cycles over time eventually change and morph, they're not constant in character. As a complex and growing ecosystem, we should expect the same of Bitcoin. Massively disruptive periods are common in nature.
As an investor, freedom should not lie in any one single answer or solution, but by all means to be taken advantage of where there is opportunity.

Don't box yourself into one outcome, blinded by a promise. Have an option on the outcome, but not at total expense.

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More from @BobLoukas

23 Apr
My $BTC outlook. (Long random thought thread)

Two weeks ago, I expected a continuation of the big bull trend with a possible surge to $80k-$100k into a top for this "current bull run" A mini blow-off, if you will. Was based simply on trend following, repeating Cycles.
But that trend was broken on April 18th and all long leveraged exposure immediately cut.

All spot positions remained open.

It's a bull market, after all.
In fact, we now have our first Failed Cycle since March 2020 and steep trajectory was lost.

Very simply, the rally that started back in October 2020 has more than likely ended.

It also tells me deeper consolidation is unfolding. This is the ebb and flow nature of any market.
Read 16 tweets
21 Apr
If fees were really "the issue", $BTC and $ETH would have died long time ago.

They're not in a nascent industry, they represent demand and security.

The growth #Ethereum ecosystem is past escape velocity and each day brings closer to scalability. I follow demand.
If you think $ADA is the answer you're biased beyond rationality. If you like $TRON or $EOS you're easily convinced by scammers.

$DOT and $SOL are potential players, taking solid hodl stakes early as insurance make sense.

$NEM $NEO $WAVES $XTZ $ZIL had their chance.
I'm sure this will tick many off, as their pet project was mentioned. This is just my view of the space based on my observations. Each to their own with their capital.
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
New Project.

Taking 100 $ETH from my IRA Trust.

Going to stake in ETH2 Validator.

10yr horizon. Should compound to around 175 ETH by yr 10.

Should generate 12ETH per yr income, tax free/life. Principal untouched.

12ETH x (Price 2031) = Yr Income.
Risk is $200k or 100ETH.
2/ Of course could trade it. Play the Cycles and v.likely come out more ETH over period.

But already do that. This portion of funds allocated to long term investment ignoring market timing and about long term cap appreciation/income.

Planting a tree. l'm an investor + trader.
3/ Logistically, established trust's years ago using sensefinancial.com - (Not ad or referral) giving checkbook access.

Created Trust accounts at PAXOS. You buy ETH in TRUST'S name for record keeping.

So validator gets fed ETH from Paxos then back later for conversion.
Read 5 tweets
22 Mar
Waiting patiently. Day 59 of the #Bitcoin Cycle with a looming Cycle Low in focus. Day 50 bull trap behind us.

This is my preferred look at what's possibly coming up.

Lows can dip further than expected, and to be bought. Otherwise buy ATH break. (Traders) Image
"IF"

If we get another 60-day Cycle that continues Oct-20 trend to $80k-$100k, then I believe we're going top with sizable 40-50% correction, that takes MANY (4-6) months to consolidate.

The entire 60-day cycle gain would be erased. Prefer 60-day consolidation from this point Image
And in such a scenario, I will be forced to sell 15% of my $BTC. 🙊

#4YearJourney #blasphemy
Read 8 tweets
7 Apr 20
1/. Stock markets are surging on “Corona news is better than modelled”.

The amount of deaths is irrelevant to a pricing system, only the perceived economic impact.
2/. This “Hope” that we can get back to normal sooner will likely last a while longer, as we are still early in the Cycle. (Recent March lows marked new cycle).
3/. Going further out though, recurrences of #coronavirus popping up in the US and throughout the world will lead to rather shutdowns and slowdowns. The cumulative disruptions will cause a real drag on economies and therefore, earnings.
Read 7 tweets
20 Mar 20
What I think I know.

#Covid_19 is clearly fast spreading and packs a punch. Not debating how we're choosing to fight it, but the world is committed now to "social distancing" and economic aid.

1/
2/ The bright side is apparently the China model, 45 days in Wuhan and the numbers peaked, now virtually free of new cases!!

The world is projecting a similar 30 day period (flatten the curve) and we're BBQing in the spring.
3/ Problem is, the West is not disciplined like China...far from it. They were able to contain this b/c of draconian measured imposed on all residents.

Do you think the Chinese fought #corona like this?
Read 9 tweets

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