Look guys, everything can always be a scam. But the allegations hurled @circlepay from the #tether skeptics (of which I am one) are a bit too aggressive & too early.
Ever since assets climbed above $3bn, attestations have been later and later. That is reasonable ->
Why? Because an auditor (and this is not an audit, but an auditor attesting to it) has a liability, so while it may be easy for them to attest to $400m, the current $16bn might be might more of a risk. Also $USDC is cross-chain; the larger it gets the more difficult to count ->
And yet, we are STILL within the timing of their last release (its still 8 days before it exceeds that and I'd assume it is natural that it will).
So yes - it could be another #crypto scam. It's possible. But saying a Goldman & Coinbased backed venture
->
using a Top 5 auditor to provide attestations (#tether used an offshore law firm like 3x) is ALREADY rogue & a scam because report timing is same as before is... laughable & by inference it makes the critics look really stupid on other topics.
So hold your fire maybe, huh? $USDC
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Wanted to put out an article but no time. So I’ll try like this. Within my trading methodology we have left Bull market territory and are now in between. I called that consolidation in my trading article (bit.ly/3yg5bkQ).
What does that mean?
It means that consolidations have started to drift downwards instead of up and while a return to new highs is definitely possible, it is now 50/50 that we enter a full Bear market first. We have established an early pattern of a lower high and a lower low as well.
There are strong fundamental headwinds for $BTC to consider now:
1) Inflation is showing up everywhere and the labor market seems okay in the US. New debt issuance will exceed Fed purchases for the first time in a while soon and the Fed is likely to begin looking at a taper.
When they announced their pie chart to the #crypto world, everyone (incl me) was like "Okay, they are backed, great - let's move on".
The thing is - I don't think we can move on actually...
I have written before (cutt.ly/pbZKGiC) the main issue is not that #tether is backed with something these days, but what that backing is and whether that means $USDT should trade as a stablecoin pegged 1-1 to the USD.
Their publication actually means they should not...
Let's look at their breakdown of assets and believe it without a second thought.
You can see that the #tether reserves consist of a grand total of 3.87% in actual cash. All else are instruments that any company might use to park their cash in, however there are some problems...
Just thought of some #crypto personalities:
- @TheCryptoDog: The Warren Buffet of crypto. Always friendly, loves what he buys, finds value, never sells
- @AltcoinPsycho: The Jim Simons of crypto. Quant trading, options, return, but good person.
- @CryptoDonAlt: George Soros of crypto. Will speculate against the crowd, remains a good person with sound advice.
- @SalsaTekila: the Jesse Livermore of Crypto. "Colossal gains and colossal losses" sounds like his twitter feed.
- @woonomic: Ray Dalio of crypto. Best at macro.
- @edwardmorra_btc: William Gann of crypto. Purely technical analysis trading.
This was fun. I am sure there are loads of others out there.
Disbelief levels as measures by leverage premium continue to look good now. In order for me to actually believe #tether is done extracting $, I want to ideally see both dotted blue lines hold on an hourly closing basis. #bitcoin
Not advice
And in a truly perfect world, someone other than Michael Saylor or Elon Musk announces they bought all the spot $BTC that left Coinbase in the last 2 days.
Larry Ellison? A friend of Elon, big Tesla stake and definitely on the crazy side of executives plus a billionaire...
So far so good. Both levels tested, both held for now 💪🏻. Not advice
My read on #Fed press conference is broadly Bullish risky assets including #bitcoin. Points JP made that leads me to thsi conclusion:
- Unemployment rate understates problem as labor participation rate is lower
- Economy is 9.5m jobs below pre pandemic
...
- we will aim for inflation higher than 2% for some time
- We are looking for broad based and inclusive labor market improvement
- We won't taper asset purchases before economy has made "substantial progress towards max employment and inflation expectation firmly at 2%" ...
- We want to give notice WELL in advance of actual tapering of the asset purchases (meaning they won't just reduce them next meeting out of the blue)
- Talked down moving of rate projections of some slightly upwards in 2023 by reaffiriming stance on asset purchases and rates...
The thing with #crypto and #bitcoin is that right now practically everything that’s out there is built on the same “usecase” - speculation, casino and pyramid schemes (#Defi). So that is exceptionally vulnerable to Fed moves. However, there are now so many smart & motivated...
... people working in #crypto & on making the #blockchain a useful tool in our lives that betting against that innovation is now pretty poor risk reward. There are thousands of usecases that may or may not require a token, but they will be built:
- identity on chain makes identity theft impossible & where would you store it if not on the most decentralized one (ie $BTC)
- voting will be done on chain, instant results no fraud
- clearinghouses will disappear as the #blockchain replaces settlement (albeit a centralized one)