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26 Mar, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Disbelief levels as measures by leverage premium continue to look good now. In order for me to actually believe #tether is done extracting $, I want to ideally see both dotted blue lines hold on an hourly closing basis. #bitcoin

Not advice
And in a truly perfect world, someone other than Michael Saylor or Elon Musk announces they bought all the spot $BTC that left Coinbase in the last 2 days.

Larry Ellison? A friend of Elon, big Tesla stake and definitely on the crazy side of executives plus a billionaire...
So far so good. Both levels tested, both held for now 💪🏻. Not advice

Now - can we get Larry to announce please?

#bitcoin
The entire day, $BTC has been spot driven. Real USD buying #bitcoin on Coinbase and Bitstamp are driving this currently. Price in #tether and levered are lagging by almost $100 at times.

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More from @dkcrypto13

DK Profile picture
26 Mar
Just thought of some #crypto personalities:
- @TheCryptoDog: The Warren Buffet of crypto. Always friendly, loves what he buys, finds value, never sells
- @AltcoinPsycho: The Jim Simons of crypto. Quant trading, options, return, but good person.
- @CryptoDonAlt: George Soros of crypto. Will speculate against the crowd, remains a good person with sound advice.
- @SalsaTekila: the Jesse Livermore of Crypto. "Colossal gains and colossal losses" sounds like his twitter feed.
- @woonomic: Ray Dalio of crypto. Best at macro.
- @edwardmorra_btc: William Gann of crypto. Purely technical analysis trading.

This was fun. I am sure there are loads of others out there.
Read 4 tweets
DK Profile picture
17 Mar
My read on #Fed press conference is broadly Bullish risky assets including #bitcoin. Points JP made that leads me to thsi conclusion:
- Unemployment rate understates problem as labor participation rate is lower
- Economy is 9.5m jobs below pre pandemic
...
- we will aim for inflation higher than 2% for some time
- We are looking for broad based and inclusive labor market improvement
- We won't taper asset purchases before economy has made "substantial progress towards max employment and inflation expectation firmly at 2%" ...
- We want to give notice WELL in advance of actual tapering of the asset purchases (meaning they won't just reduce them next meeting out of the blue)
- Talked down moving of rate projections of some slightly upwards in 2023 by reaffiriming stance on asset purchases and rates...
Read 6 tweets
DK Profile picture
17 Mar
The thing with #crypto and #bitcoin is that right now practically everything that’s out there is built on the same “usecase” - speculation, casino and pyramid schemes (#Defi). So that is exceptionally vulnerable to Fed moves. However, there are now so many smart & motivated...
... people working in #crypto & on making the #blockchain a useful tool in our lives that betting against that innovation is now pretty poor risk reward. There are thousands of usecases that may or may not require a token, but they will be built:
- identity on chain makes identity theft impossible & where would you store it if not on the most decentralized one (ie $BTC)
- voting will be done on chain, instant results no fraud
- clearinghouses will disappear as the #blockchain replaces settlement (albeit a centralized one)
Read 7 tweets
DK Profile picture
4 Mar
The fact #bitcoin isn‘t getting completely obliterated given Powell just basically said „Yes we still need to print now but before anything happens with inflation we‘ll hit the breaks hard“ is certainly a silver lining.
It will depend a lot on how markets read the Fed‘s communications tomorrow, when the dust settles, but in case they go with „ok it‘s confirmed, the Fed will be less expansive soon to avoid inflation“, I think $40k is totally doable here. #bitcoin $BTC

Not advice.
FWIW the likeliest outcome is investors decide tomorrow not so much changed after all & all those tech stocks seem quite a bit cheaper now.May see a good reaction in $BTC as well. Just definitely a warning:we‘re much closer to the end than the beginning & the end may have started
Read 5 tweets
DK Profile picture
24 Feb
Short thread on #macro drivers #bitcoin & #crypto are facing right now. $BTC $ETH

While #tether not immediately being wound up now, Yellen speaking negatively or Square buying definitely impacted price this week, there is a larger picture we should bear in mind & watch closely:
Due to other news in cryptoland, the larger macro picture (which, IMO was and is the main driver of #bitcoin since March 2020) has been a bit under the radar.

There are several future uses of the #bitcoin #blockchain, but it's current main use is vaccuuming up USD the Fed prints
$BTC is perfect for it. It is digital, fast (in comparison to Gold), very hypable and it has absolutely no intrinsic value yet without the speculation around it. So when the Fed started printing in response to #COVID, in order to prevent a new Great Depression, it rallied.
Read 13 tweets
DK Profile picture
22 Feb
We can obviously continue to dip endlessly more and #bitcoin usually has a second shoe drop after the first one, but as I said about 1 hour ago, I do not personally believe the bull market is over and leverage desperately needed to be re-set. And it has.
#tether premium and leverage premium both went from $400 and more to negative so the initial speculative "excess" has been eliminated. I am good with being long now.

None of this is advice. I use low leverage and I do not invest more than what I am able to lose. DO NOT COPY.
These two tickers have been extremely helpful in understanding how to time dip buying and how long to stay short.
Article contains some more info. NEVER ADVICE:

medium.com/coinmonks/indi…

Read 4 tweets

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