DK Profile picture
17 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
My read on #Fed press conference is broadly Bullish risky assets including #bitcoin. Points JP made that leads me to thsi conclusion:
- Unemployment rate understates problem as labor participation rate is lower
- Economy is 9.5m jobs below pre pandemic
...
- we will aim for inflation higher than 2% for some time
- We are looking for broad based and inclusive labor market improvement
- We won't taper asset purchases before economy has made "substantial progress towards max employment and inflation expectation firmly at 2%" ...
- We want to give notice WELL in advance of actual tapering of the asset purchases (meaning they won't just reduce them next meeting out of the blue)
- Talked down moving of rate projections of some slightly upwards in 2023 by reaffiriming stance on asset purchases and rates...
- service spending is way down still, so inflation in assets isn't everything

The takeaway is very much that they (the fed) seems to want to see the labor market fully restored to pre pandemic before they worry about inflation. So this reads Bullish. Very Bullish perhaps...
None of this is advice. It seems $BTC and all other risky assets have been given another shot in the arm here. It has to be abundantly clear to everyone though: if this press conference had gone differently it'd been ugly. We are closer to the end than the beginning of the Bull.
Unless any surprises come out though, I think this looks very reassuring and like a full out win for markets tbh. May be wrong of course.

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More from @dkcrypto13

17 Mar
The thing with #crypto and #bitcoin is that right now practically everything that’s out there is built on the same “usecase” - speculation, casino and pyramid schemes (#Defi). So that is exceptionally vulnerable to Fed moves. However, there are now so many smart & motivated...
... people working in #crypto & on making the #blockchain a useful tool in our lives that betting against that innovation is now pretty poor risk reward. There are thousands of usecases that may or may not require a token, but they will be built:
- identity on chain makes identity theft impossible & where would you store it if not on the most decentralized one (ie $BTC)
- voting will be done on chain, instant results no fraud
- clearinghouses will disappear as the #blockchain replaces settlement (albeit a centralized one)
Read 7 tweets
4 Mar
The fact #bitcoin isn‘t getting completely obliterated given Powell just basically said „Yes we still need to print now but before anything happens with inflation we‘ll hit the breaks hard“ is certainly a silver lining.
It will depend a lot on how markets read the Fed‘s communications tomorrow, when the dust settles, but in case they go with „ok it‘s confirmed, the Fed will be less expansive soon to avoid inflation“, I think $40k is totally doable here. #bitcoin $BTC

Not advice.
FWIW the likeliest outcome is investors decide tomorrow not so much changed after all & all those tech stocks seem quite a bit cheaper now.May see a good reaction in $BTC as well. Just definitely a warning:we‘re much closer to the end than the beginning & the end may have started
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
Short thread on #macro drivers #bitcoin & #crypto are facing right now. $BTC $ETH

While #tether not immediately being wound up now, Yellen speaking negatively or Square buying definitely impacted price this week, there is a larger picture we should bear in mind & watch closely:
Due to other news in cryptoland, the larger macro picture (which, IMO was and is the main driver of #bitcoin since March 2020) has been a bit under the radar.

There are several future uses of the #bitcoin #blockchain, but it's current main use is vaccuuming up USD the Fed prints
$BTC is perfect for it. It is digital, fast (in comparison to Gold), very hypable and it has absolutely no intrinsic value yet without the speculation around it. So when the Fed started printing in response to #COVID, in order to prevent a new Great Depression, it rallied.
Read 13 tweets
22 Feb
We can obviously continue to dip endlessly more and #bitcoin usually has a second shoe drop after the first one, but as I said about 1 hour ago, I do not personally believe the bull market is over and leverage desperately needed to be re-set. And it has.
#tether premium and leverage premium both went from $400 and more to negative so the initial speculative "excess" has been eliminated. I am good with being long now.

None of this is advice. I use low leverage and I do not invest more than what I am able to lose. DO NOT COPY.
These two tickers have been extremely helpful in understanding how to time dip buying and how long to stay short.
Article contains some more info. NEVER ADVICE:

medium.com/coinmonks/indi…

Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
This fine.

#tether premium & leverage premium in #bitcoin are huge atm.

So much fuel for more dump. Image
Never seen this correct so fast. Literally dumped from $52k to below $47.5k in seconds after I had typed this up. #bitcoin leverage should now be broadly re-set. Image
As expected. Financing can still be cheaper of course, but the speculative excess has been cleansed entirely and funding is back to normal. #bitcoin Image
Read 6 tweets
7 Feb
I want to be extremely clear about it:

#crypto is in a raging bull market because of the Fed. It‘s not because #Defi or $DOGE all of a sudden have any real use. #Yieldfarming is the definition of a pyramid scheme. Just want to disillusion you

Some interesting crypto uses today:
#bitcoin is indeed becoming a highly volatile investment product that institutions are looking at due to the abundance of liquidity. It remains to be seen what is left when the Fed ends QE. Also, $BTC can act as money in unfree societies which is really cool...
...#ethereum, with all its scalability issues (if you think using a network with $150 per tx will become mainstream once the Fed stops printing buy the proverbial bridge), is showing how #crypto can replace clearing houses, how applications can run decentrally, how tokenizing...
Read 14 tweets

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