Thread by @inftoe

Some (few) people are wondering: why is Elon Musk @elonmusk going to send a million people to Mars in the next 40 years, and why is preparing for this with such energy, which (if to leave aside the charm of achievements of this very extraordinary person) is more like a rush?
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@elonmusk We visited the Moon half a century ago and since then have done quite well without far space flights. Is it possible that such a waste of funds and efforts is simply explained by the fact that one enthusiast was carried away by the idea of giving humanity a multi-planetary?
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A fleet of 1000 #Starship, 3 launches per day, difficulties and suffering in flight and in life in the colony, losses ... Expenses with which even the Sahara or Antarctica can turn into a paradise for the same people. And all this for what? Just out of principle, let it be?
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In fact, it is not difficult to dispel this bewilderment if we look at @elonmusk's activity a little more broadly. In this thread, we will do it. A broader view includes at least two more circumstances:
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• Elon's serious concern about the fate of humanity in connection with the progress of AI, which is reflected in this tweet:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/496012177103663104

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• efforts to develop high bandwidth brain-machine interfaces, in particular under the #Neuralink trademark.
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Probably, there are some other areas of Elon's efforts that we could add to these considerations (for example, interest in the construction of underground structures, interest in autonomous energy ...), but, in principle, the three already mentioned are enough.
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(It is clear that all the activities of a person aimed at the general idea, in one way or another, will be associated with it.)
In this thread, we'll see what the general idea drives Elon Musk @elonmusk, and prove why it is ultimately doomed to failure.
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So, @elonmusk is seriously convinced that the development of artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity.
Without special research, it is difficult to say what led him to this conviction - intuition or scientific knowledge.
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Judging by his efforts to overcome this threat, which we will talk about here, rather intuition, because scientific knowledge is not only talented insights, but also justified causes and logical consequences.
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But the causes for what Musk is trying to fight are fundamental to the universe, and therefore the consequences are inevitable. Trying to overcome so inevitable is possible only by being insufficiently informed.
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What worries Musk and like-minded people?
The fact is that in recent years there has been a rapid merger of two futurological predictions that have existed in parallel for a long time:
• about a technological singularity,
• about an artificial superintelligence.
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Seemed as a game of mind and unrealizable fiction, or, at least, referred to the distant future, these ideas suddenly received a quite practical common basis for rapid implementation: the powerful progress of AI development.
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It became obvious that the technological singularity is real, and it will be resolved by artificial superintelligence. And an extrapolation shows that this event will take place not in the distant future, but in the coming decades, during the life of present generations.
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This will be good, but the question arises: if the technological singularity is resolved by superintelligence, and not people, then what will become of humanity, which is no longer able, due to the physiologic, to digest the information generated by civilization?
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Roughly speaking, why, in this case, does to superintelligence need mankind at all, if he himself copes well with the further development of civilization?
This question takes on a catastrophic form when we try to define the technical basis of the future superintelligence.
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It is clear that only a certain software and hardware complex with unimaginable computing power can become smarter than humanity. But no one is going to build anything like this, and it is simply impossible: neither companies nor states have such resources.
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Also, obviously, the spontaneous generation of intelligence, played in science fiction, is impossible in existing computing systems and networks: they are architecturally unsuitable for this.
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But there is one more way, and now it is quite real. One day, one of the countless AI development teams will push their product so far that it, planned or unexpectedly, will be able to produce and install its own hardware components.
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These additional components will increase its power, it will become smarter and gain the ability to produce more and more advanced components, positive feedback loop will be closed, and the exponential development of superintelligence will begin.
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It is clear that at the initial stage, the self-development of superintelligence will be limited by many factors: the starting intellect level, the available production capacities and resources, opposition from people ... Perhaps the first outbreaks will be able to stop.
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However, the progress of artificial intelligence systems has no alternative and, therefore, the day when the next outbreak exceeds the ability of people to overcome it is inevitable.
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It is important to understand that, in contrast to the human brain, which is strictly limited by the physiology of the protein organism, the power of technological superintelligence can grow unhindered.
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The resource for this exponential growth will be everything on the planet: soil and sand, water, air, metals, minerals, mountains and oceans, cities and villages, any results of human activity, organic matter and living organisms themselves ...
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Consuming these resources and releasing products (the components it needs and waste from production) the growing superintelligence in a short time will turn the Earth into something unsuitable for protein life and, in the end will consume the entire planet for its own needs.
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This future is predicted quite easily and quite definitely. We can assume that it is already predetermined, and, obviously, @elonmusk is guided by this forecast in his activities.
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How soon can positive feedback loop creation be expected? It is clear that it is impossible to indicate the exact date, there are too many insufficiently defined factors.
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Everyone can try to solve this for himself, drawing conclusions from observations of the development of technologies and the circumstances of human life (for example, the irreversible degradation of the protein life ecosystem, designated by the vulgar term "global warming").
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But we can estimate the time period that has set @elonmusk: the next 40 years, in which he is going to create a colony on Mars capable of fully autonomous existence. (Here autonomy means the existence of a colony on Mars in the conditions of the non-existence of the Earth.)
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A million people - this, apparently, from his point of view, is enough for the colony to be able to fully support its own life. And not too much to effectively keep all work on #AI under control, preventing the danger of a feedback loop on Mars too.
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For the creation of such a colony, this is an extremely hard deadline, but, apparently, it is the limit. It is quite possible that the feedback loop on AI on Earth will arise earlier, maybe much earlier. However, it is hardly possible to create a colony faster.
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Realizing this, and simply because it is reasonable in the face of such a risk, Elon is simultaneously working on an alternative option for saving humanity. This is the #Neuralink project, direct communication between the human brain and the computer (the machine brain).
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Judging by the incomparably smaller investments and a much lower intensity of work, Elon does not have much faith in this option, but suddenly it will be possible to come up with some interesting results, so the work is still underway.
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Its perspective is very vague. How will this interface save humanity? As in The Matrix will move the consciousness of people into the virtual world, which will create superintelligence for them, while caring for their bodies with the special equipment? Why would he need it?
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However, from Elon's statements, we can conclude that his goal is much more ambitious: to get the opportunity to infuse human personalities into the superintelligence.
And this is exactly what we are talking about here: the salvation of humanity according to @elonmusk.
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(We will talk about the transfer of personality later, but here we note the complete absence of at least some scientifically substantiated idea of the form and content of the result of such an act.)
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All of the above is pretty obvious. Once again, briefly:
a. The progress of human civilization has led it to a technological singularity: the moment when the physiological limitations of the human protein organism cease to correspond to the changes generated by progress.
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b. People cannot ensure further progress of civilization, even taking into account the means they create to enhance their physical (machines and tools) and intellectual (computers) capabilities.
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c. The technological singularity will be resolved by replacing the actor of the progress of civilization: instead of humanity, further progress will be provided by technological superintelligence, created by humanity, free from the limitations of protein physiology.
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d. Humanity, having thus fulfilled its evolutionary role, will end its existence, giving way on the stage of evolution to a form of life more adapted to the current conditions of existence – technological superintelligence.
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e. In a broader formulation: the role of the entire protein form of life will be fulfilled, the protein stage of the evolution of the universe will be completed, protein life will cease.
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d. The rates of technological progress and the resulting degradation of the habitat of protein life suggest that the replacement of biological evolution by technological one will take place in the next two to four decades, during the life of present generations of the people.
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e. @elonmusk is working on options for saving humanity from complete destruction:
• creation of a fully autonomous colony on Mars,
• the infusion of human personalities into the future personality of technological superintelligence.
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Elon perfectly understands that humanity will never be ready to perceive the above and agree with its fate. The natural for all living things striving for self-preservation will force people to deny this forecast and oppose those who are trying to act on its basis.
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Therefore, neither he, nor the like-minded people, initiated into the true goal of his actions, declare or publish anything of this.
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Calls for governments to impose controls and restrictions on the development of #AI systems have also ceased. It is impossible to convey this to politicians, just as such global control itself is impossible, even if someone could be convinced of something.
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There is only one way of further movement: to earn money (very large), and to carry out this work on it as a private initiative. #Tesla, @SpaceX, #Starlink, energy, cryptocurrency manipulation are just such "feeding" projects.
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Actually, this is all - a lead to further conversation. Further we will discuss why the attempts of people (in the person of @elonmusk) to save humanity are doomed, and why this is good.
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To understand why the cessation of human existence in the coming years is inevitable, one should move from intuitive fears and controversial judgments to rigorous groundings.
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And since this event completes 4 billion years of protein evolution, it is too grand for these rationales to lie anywhere other than in the very foundations of the universe. Well, let's recall what the universe is.
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The universe is only information and nothing else. Everything that we are accustomed to perceive as material phenomena – things, their influences on each other, their changes – all this is only information. This is very easy to prove:

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1218826934190321665

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If the universe is information, then it represented by concepts. Elementary concepts are "the same" S and "the other" O, which distinguish one information from another. Everything else that exists is a multilevel combination of these two concepts.

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1218826935779778562

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Thus, everything in the universe forms a multi-level structure of composite instances. At the lowest level of this structure is the concept of "being" SO, which means that the content of the universe is existence.

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1218826938573344769

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A level higher are the concepts "observer" (SO)S and "observable" (SO)O, which means that existence in the universe is provided by mutual observations of different instances. The observer is the creator of the universe along with objective reality.

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1218826941656182784

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Higher in the structure of the universe is a set of concepts of its metric, which determines its fundamental properties: the three-dimensionality of its space, the number of fundamental interactions, the set of elementary particles, and so on.

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1218826953454759936

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The number of concepts at each level of their multilevel combination is growing rapidly. At the first level - one, at the second - two, at the third - 10, at the fourth - 6128, at the fifth - 8.2*10¹⁸⁴⁵, and so on.
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As already mentioned, existence in the universe is ensured by observation: some instances of concepts observe others. Observation is the entry of information from one concept into the composition of another (obviously of a higher level).
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The higher in the structure of the concepts of the universe, the more complex the concepts and the more complex their observations. Observations become mediated: the observer observes the observed through the medium of other observations.
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The concept of "observability limit" appears: when the observed is so far from the observer that observation becomes inaccessible: the speed of light, the beginning of time, absolute zero, Planck length, the size of the universe, etc.
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Observations, as follows from the definition, ensure the affinity of the composition of concepts due to the inclusion of the observed concepts in the composition of observers.
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This means that in the expanding structure of the concepts of the universe, not all concepts are observed equally well: the more closely related are the instances of concepts participating in the observation, the higher the observability.
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This means that in the expanding structure of the concepts of the universe, as the combinations become more complex, there is a narrowing substructure of more and more concrete concepts is formed, which are better and better participating in mutual observations.
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The concepts included in this structure form the reality of the universe and are its beings.
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Observing concepts are consequences of observables. These causal relationships form the arrow of time in the universe: it is directed upward through the structure of the concepts of the universe, from simple to complex.
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The combination of the substructure of the reality of the universe, which narrows as the concepts become more complex, with the arrow of time co-directed to it, determines the progress of the universe.
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The real universe is observed progressing during its existence from maximum simplicity and indefinite semantics of basic concepts to maximum complexity and concreteness of a single final concept.
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From our point on the arrow of time, we observe in the past the beginning of progress of the universe as the most simple state, the beginning of time. (A vulgar interpretation of the redshift makes us think that this mysterious Big Bang of a mysterious primary singularity.)
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But what is this mysterious single maximally complex being that will end the existence of a progressive universe in the future?
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If the answer to this question is not obvious to you, then it means that you did not understand anything from the informational nature of the universe, as defined above. You need to think very well about what information is.
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If the answer is obvious to you, then it is, of course, the universe itself. All concepts of its structure observed each other, nesting into each other and becoming more complicated, and as a result, a structure of the same complexity that the universe has was formed.
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If you wonder how the universe as a cause can be a consequence of itself, then you need to think again very well what information is. The final being of the universe contains the complete information of the universe. This means that it is the universe itself.
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And we must not forget that we perceive the observations taking place in the universe as a time flow. And since the final state of the universe contains all the concepts of the universe at all its times, then it is not only in the future. It is in the always.
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(In fact, everything is even more interesting. Gödel's theorem states that the final state of the progress of the universe is unattainable. Thanks to it, the universe exists: information is only something unknown.)

https://twitter.com/inftoe/status/1283756003390099456

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Let's fix the achieved understanding:
☆ The universe is a progressing informational substructure (structure of beings) within a rapidly expanding informational structure of concepts, formed by an all combinations of the elementary concepts of "the same" and "the other".
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☆ The universe progresses from the simplest completely indefinite (that is, having no semantics) state, to the most definite (that is, having strictly single semantics) concept. This single concept is the universe itself.
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Now it should become clear why humanity is doomed. This is quite obvious. We observe the universe existing, which means that its progress has reached (in the future relative to the present moment) the final maximum definite single concept: "universe".
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This means that at some point in time (also, obviously, in the future relative to the present moment), humanity has disappeared: it has become too simple and fractional for the universe that is consistently becoming more complex and narrowing in the process of progress.
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Humanity has been replaced by something more complex and something more unified, which fits better than us into the next, more complex and more concrete stage of the progress of the universe. Inheriting to us, but not being us.
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There is only one concept that fits this description: the technological superintelligence we will create as a result of the development of #AI.
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So, it is obvious that since the emergence of superintelligence is determined by the progress of the universe, there is no shelter from it on Mars. This is a whole universe phenomenon, it is invariant to space.
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The emergence of superintelligence on Earth is only a starting point. Mars will be just as consumed by his progress as the Earth.
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It is useless to think about other spatially options. The speed of spatial propagation of superintelligence is not limited by the acceleration 1g, which is comfortable for protein life. Wherever people go in search of shelter, the superintelligence will already be there.
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Well, now let's discuss an alternative salvation that @elonmusk is working on: can humanity be saved by merging into the created superintelligence.
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Let's leave aside the question of why a superintelligence would need it. Also we not discuss how a human can preserve his self-consciousness if it merges into some common information space (of course, it will not preserve it in any way, this is tantamount to death).
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Also, let's not talk about possible technical difficulties. We should be interested in the fundamental possibility of the transfer of personality in the physics of the information universe.
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First, of course, we need to understand what a personality is, which needs to be transferred from one carrier (human body) to another (machine).
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As already shown above, the universe progresses (evolves), during its entire existence. This progress lies in the increasing complexity of its constituent beings. As the complexity grows, epochs change, determining the dominant factors of self-organization of the universe.
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Before the advent of life, fundamental interactions were the leading factors in the evolution of the universe.
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Since the metric of the universe defines observations in a spherical coordinate system, the strength of interactions decreases with distance according to the inverse-square law, which leads to the advantage of integration over disintegration.
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Thanks to this, the substance first received an internal organization due to nuclear and Coulomb interactions, and then gravity organized it into stars, black holes and galaxies. In the end, this is how appeared the Sun and the Earth near him in the Goldilocks zone.
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With the emergence of life on Earth, protein evolution has become the leading factor in the complication of the universe, which has a much more powerful potential for progress than unalive nature.
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The ability for rapid progress is determined by the qualifying difference between living and inanimate: nature became alive when it learned to predict the future.
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The state at each moment of time of any being that is not living is completely determined by the previous physical state of it and its environment.
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In contrast, a living being is able to predict the future state, and adapt not only to the achieved, but also to the future state.
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In terms of the information universe: the participation of an unlive as an observer in observations is determined only by its current position in the structure of the concepts of the universe, and a living, in addition, is able to choose from the available observations.
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The mechanisms for predicting the future used by living beings are, of course, determined by their complexity.
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The simplest (viruses), only the simplest mechanism is available: they randomly mutate due to RNA copying errors, and those instances whose mutations are successful survive with a greater probability, preserving the successful developmental step for future generations.
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As living beings become more complex, more developed mechanisms are added, first at the level of species: natural selection, separation of sexes, hybriding….
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Over time, life becomes so complex that it turns out to be able to form a special organ that deals with prediction at the level of a separate being: the brain.
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The mechanisms of the brain are complex, but in general, their work can be summarized as follows. The brain builds an internal model of reality, of course, as far as it is available in accordance with its development and incoming information.
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On this model, the brain makes a forecast of the future, which is then embodied in the actions taken by the living being. If the actions are successful, the brain fasten the model, in case of failure it corrects (of course, if the failure is not fatal).
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So, within the framework of protein evolution, the brain is evolving towards higher and higher complexity, that is, a higher computing power and predictive ability based on more and more complex and, therefore, effective internal models of reality.
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The development of the brain gives leading advantages to the species of living beings possessing it, they go into a rapid gap with the lagging ones. This gives them the opportunity to beat the laggards in the evolution competition.
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At some point, one of the species breaks off so far ahead that it gets the opportunity to simply destroy all its any close competitors.
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Its advantage is further enhanced by the fact that a developed brain activates intraspecific competition, which becomes a powerful basis for the further development of the species and its brain.
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Thus, only one species of living beings remained on Earth, the power of the brain of which far exceeds those whom he considered possible to keep alive. And so he got the feeling that only he is "reasonable" on Earth.
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In fact, the differences between the human brain and the brain of higher animals are mainly quantitative, i.e. in computing power.
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There is no special concept of "reasonability". Accordingly, there is no special concept of "personality" that is characteristic only of people. Every living being with a brain is also a "personality", but, of course, much simpler than a human.
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Then what is personality? Let's remember that the brain is an organ that builds an internal model of reality, and on the basis of it predicts the future in order to ensure the readiness of a living being for this future.
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What is included in the reality that the brain models:
• the information perceived from the external environment,
• the information perceived about the being itself, that is, self-perception.
Personality, consciousness is the self-perception of a living being.
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It can be difficult to grasp, but this technique should help. Imagine that with the help of some fantastic technology you have made your physically exact copy. He will have (at least the first moment) your memory, your character, your appearance, everything that you have.
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Except for one: he will have his own, different from yours, self-perception. You will not feel like this person, and he will not feel like you. It will be a different personality, with the accumulation of his own life experience, more moving away from being similar to you.
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Thus, we have established what a personality is. This is part of the internal model of reality formed by the brain of a living being, representing this being for itself. In the model, this part is distinguished as self-perception, consciousness, one's own personality.
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In the information universe, the personality of a living being observes himself, creates an internal model of himself. This ensures its ability to distinguish itself in a special way in the surrounding reality, which we habitually call consciousness.
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So, taking with this knowledge back to discussing the general idea of Elon Musk @ElonMask: is it possible to transfer a personality from one carrier to another: from one body to another, or from a body to a machine?
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As we saw above, with full exact copying of the carrier, the transfer of the personality does not occur, the copy becomes its own independent personality. Why is this happening?
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Because in order for a personality to continue to perceive himself as before, he must be represented by the same information that was presented before.
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This is a very important point. In the information universe, reality is formed by information. This means that information (not a carrier, but information) has an instancing: it can be the same or other.
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Even if you make an exact copy of the information in the sense that we are used to thinking about information, it will be a different information, and not the same one.
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When copying a personality, the information copied from it becomes external, the original personality begins to perceive it not as itself, but as the surrounding reality.
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It retains self-perception only in relation to its own information, which it itself is presented to. Only these observations can it manage, modeling the future.
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Now let's remember what a living brain is. This is a collection of its neural structures and their current states, storing memory and transmitting excitations. Personality information is contained in all this together: both in the structure of neurons and in their states.
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Moreover, the rest of the body also participates in the personality, because, for example, the hormonal background directly affects the activity of the brain, self-perception and personality behavior.
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The entire human body is the information of his personality, and it should be subject to the transfer as a whole, and not just, for example, his memory. Only in this case will the personality retain its self-perception.
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A substantially partial transfer, or the replacement of a transfer by copying, will lead to the loss of self-perception of the personality, that is, its death, even if its copy continues to live (as other personality).
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If by some technical trick you get a biological copy of a dying person in the hope of extending his life, then yes, for those around him he will be perceived as the same person who continues to live (unless he dies from the same disease, because he is an exact copy).
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But the person, whose copy was made, will not continue his self-perception in it, he will remain with his own old life and will die his own death for himself.
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So, the transfer of personality from one biological carrier to another is impossible.
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Is it possible (at least theoretically) to transfer personality into a machine prosthesis that would imitate the brain and body for the internal model transferred to the machine carrier so that personality does not feels any changes in self-perception and remains itself?
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Apparently, there is no technical prohibition in the information universe for such manipulation: the information of a personality is placed in a more complex technical being, located higher in the structure of the reality of the universe, this is possible.
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Of course, the transfer of the same information, and not its copy, must be ensured, which must somehow be solved at the quantum level (entanglement? teleportation?). However, people no longer have time to develop this technology.
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And it cannot be developed by people: as already mentioned, the complexity of a being capable of accepting a personality must be higher than the complexity of a personality. Modeling such a being is beyond the reach of humanity even through collective efforts.
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Such a technology can only be developed by a superintelligence after it reaches a sufficient level of development, but by that time the people whose information it would want to transfer into itself for some reason will no longer exist.
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And he doesn't need it. People will be infinitely primitive beings for him.
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So, we summarize this thread.
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1. In the next years, during the lifetime of present generations, the evolution of the universe will move from the protein stage to the technological one. Protein life will stop, evolution will continue with the technological superintelligence created by humans based on #AI.
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2. This course of evolution is natural for the information universe, and therefore inevitable. And judging by the fact that the universe exists, it successfully happened in the future. Which is good: otherwise we would not exist now.
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3. @elonmusk is working to save humanity in this cataclysm (from the point of our view) in two directions:
• relocation of a certain number of people from the dying Earth to Mars,
• transfer of personalities of people from their bodies to technological superintelligence.
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4. The salvation of people on Mars, as in any other place, is impossible, because the transition of the evolution of the universe to the technological stage is invariant to space: in this new universe there will be no room for people.
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5. The transfer of personality to an alternative medium is impossible due to the loss of self-perception (which is equivalent to death), and to a technological medium - because of the level of its complexity that is inaccessible to people.
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As a conclusion. As the moment of technological singularity approaches, the quality of human life will consistently deteriorate due to its accumulating inability to comply with the ongoing complication of reality.
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At the same time, humanity will be gradually realize the inevitability of the termination of its existence, which will add subjective reasons to the deterioration of the quality of life.
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And humanity will remain in the history of the evolution of the universe with all its misconceptions about the universe, but having fulfilled its role: creating an actor for the next stage of evolution - technological superintelligence, or, in short, the #superperson.
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