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10 Jun, 8 tweets, 7 min read
UK construction products imports volumes from the EU in 2021 Q1 fell by 16.1% compared to 2020 Q4 & were 0.8% higher than a year ago whilst construction products exports to the EU in 2021 Q1 were 48.6% lower than in Q4 & 28.7% lower than a year ago BUT...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... note some very important caveats. These are inappropriate reference points given that 2020 Q4 was distorted (artificially high) due to stockpiling & 2020 Q1 was distorted (artificially low) due to an impact from initial lockdowns...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... A more appropriate reference point would be to compare with the average of 2016-18, prior to any Brexit deadlines in 2019 & 2020. Given the stockpiling in 2020 Q4, it is also worth while using the average of Q4 & 2021 Q1...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... UK construction products imports volumes from the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 fell by 12.1% compared to the 2016-18 average whilst exports to the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 were 14.1% lower than the 2016-18 average. This is...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... in line with indications from industry. Large firms encountered issues in January 2021 but had largely adjusted to new systems by February so that there was a minor negative impact on their trade (partially offset by stockpiling beforehand) whilst...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... many small construction products firms trading with the EU encountered issues & delays throughout 2021 Q1 due to the increased admin/bureaucracy & delays from incorrect forms etc...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... Note UK construction products imports value (rather than volume) from the EU for the 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 average rose by 4.8% vs the 2016-18 average & exports were 1.7% higher, illustrating the impact of the sharp rise in imported product prices...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... It is also worth noting that whilst UK construction products trade (volumes) with the EU fell in 2021 Q1, even accounting for distortions, UK construction products imports to the rest of the world rose although UK construction products exports fell.
#ukconstruction #brexit

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More from @NobleFrancis

Noble Francis Profile picture
11 Jun
Construction output in April 2021 was 2.0% lower than March's recent peak (that was above pre-Covid-19 levels). Comparisons with a year ago are irrelevant given April 2020 was the nadir during the initial lockdown but...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust… Image
... as a more appropriate reference point construction output in April 2021 was 0.4% lower than in January 2020, pre-Covid-19 so it remains a 'V'-shaped recovery for construction output so far compared with a 'W'-shaped recovery for UK GDP...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Looking how the key sectors have evolved since January 2020, pre-Covid-19, there remains a distinct difference between the sectors in which activity is considerably higher than pre-Covid-19 (private housing rm&i & infrastructure), in contrast to...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 12 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
18 May
UK construction employed 2.16 million people in 2021 Q1, which is 14,817 (0.7%) higher than in Q4 but it is still 154,429 (6.7%) lower than in 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19 & 270,782 (11.2%) lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… Image
... & interestingly, male construction employment continued to fall in 2021 Q1 (by 10,717 vs Q4 & 180,237 vs 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19) & this was offset by a rise in female employment in 2021 Q1 of 25,534 (9.0%) vs Q4 & 25,808 (9.1%) vs 2019 Q4...
#ukconstruction #gender Image
... which, on the plus side means that UK construction employment in 2021 Q1 had its highest proportion of females on record (albeit still a low proportion compared with the population). However...
#ukconstruction #construction #gender Image
Read 7 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
12 May
THREAD: Construction output in March 2021 was 5.8% higher than in rain-affected February & 6.0% higher than in March 2020 according to the ONS. Output was also higher than pre-Covid-19 & at its highest level since September 2019...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust… Image
... On a monthly basis, construction output in March 2021 was 5.8% higher than rain-affected February with increases in almost every construction sector & the largest rises public housing (+16.7%), private housing (+9.4%) & private housing rm&i (+7.7%) whilst...
#ukconstruction Image
... on an annual basis, construction output in March 2021 was 6.0% higher than a year earlier although it is worth noting that construction output from 23 March 2020 was affected by the social distancing restrictions during the initial lockdown...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 18 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
13 Apr
THREAD: It is broadly a 'V'-shaped recovery for the construction industry overall so far... Construction output in February 2021 was 1.6% higher than in January 2021.
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
Construction output in February 2021 rose by 1.6% compared with January as activity picked up after the usual Winter slowdown but growth was affected by persistent rain affecting outdoor site activity so expect significant growth in March as well.
#ukconstruction #construction
Construction output in February 2021 remained 4.3% lower than one year ago (February 2020, the last month before the initial lockdown). Overall, it has broadly been a 'V'-shaped construction recovery but fortunes vary considerably by construction sector.
#ukconstruction
Read 16 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
12 Mar
'V'-shape recovery for construction so far. Construction output in January 2021 was 0.9% higher than in December 2020 & 3.0% lower than one year earlier (pre-Covid-19) according to @ONS...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... The 0.9% monthly rise in construction activity during January 2021 (was after a 2.9% fall in December &) was mainly driven by growth in public housing repair, maintenance & improvement (cladding remediation), commercial & infrastructure...
#ukconstruction #construction
... & construction output in January 2021 remained 3.0% lower than a year earlier despite activity in repair, maintenance & improvement activity & infrastructure activity that is already above pre-Covid-19 levels already because...
#ukconstruction #construction
Read 18 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
22 Dec 20
In November 2020 there were 115,190 property transactions in the UK, which is 8.6% higher than October & 19.3% higher than November 2019 according to HMRC...
#ukhousing #housing
gov.uk/government/pub…
... & as a reference point for housing market forecasts for the year, if UK property transactions continue at November 2020's level in December then, overall in 2020 UK property transactions would be 12% lower than in 2019...
#ukhousing #housing
... although note transactions in December tend to fall by around 1%-3% compared with November, which would imply that UK property transactions overall in 2020 are likely to be 13% lower than in 2019 despite monthly transactions currently above 2019 levels...
#ukhousing #housing
Read 4 tweets

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