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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 4 min read
In November 2020 there were 115,190 property transactions in the UK, which is 8.6% higher than October & 19.3% higher than November 2019 according to HMRC...
#ukhousing #housing
gov.uk/government/pub…
... & as a reference point for housing market forecasts for the year, if UK property transactions continue at November 2020's level in December then, overall in 2020 UK property transactions would be 12% lower than in 2019...
#ukhousing #housing
... although note transactions in December tend to fall by around 1%-3% compared with November, which would imply that UK property transactions overall in 2020 are likely to be 13% lower than in 2019 despite monthly transactions currently above 2019 levels...
#ukhousing #housing
... but looking forward, demand remains strong (esp. for houses rather than flats) for the next 4-5 months but we don't know what will happen to demand after the furlough scheme ends & after the end of the Stamp Duty holiday & current version of Help to Buy.
#ukhousing #housing

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More from @NobleFrancis

Noble Francis Profile picture
18 Dec
In case anyone is interested, a few slides from my Construction & Brexit update presentation this week...
#ukconstruction
Only 24% of construction products used in UK construction are imported but of those 61% come from the EU & it is not just about the imported products but also the imported materials & components used in UK manufactured construction products...
#ukconstruction Image
The key construction products that are likely to affected by a 'No Deal' would be products in which demand already exceeds supply due to the sharp recovery in housing new build & refurb after the first lockdown; timber, roofing products & white goods...
#ukconstruction Image
Read 10 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
10 Dec
Construction output in October 2020 was 1.0% higher than in September but still remained 7.5% lower than a year ago. However, it is worth noting that there were considerable differences across the different construction sectors...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
...& how construction firms have experienced recession & recovery depends on the sector(s) they work in. Looking at the key sectors, infrastructure was the least affected in the initial lockdown & activity is effectively back at pre-Covid-19 levels whilst...
#ukconstruction
... private housing new build & rm&i were the worst affected sectors in the initial lockdown but activity recovered from mid-May. Private housing rm&i activity was back at pre-Covid-19 levels in October & private housing new build output was 4.5% lower...
#ukconstruction
Read 20 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
12 Nov
Total construction output in September 2020 was 2.9% higher than in August but still remained 10.0% lower than a year earlier but there were considerable differences across the different construction sectors...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... & on a quarterly basis, total construction output 2020 Q3 was unsurprisingly 41.7% higher than in (Lockdown 1-affected) Q2 but it remained 12.6% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction
... & note that whilst output in Q3 was 12.6% lower than a year ago, ONS employment data earlier this week shows construction employment in Q3 was 'only' 7.4% lower than a year earlier but hours worked in construction in Q3 were 17.1% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction
Read 23 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
10 Nov
In spite of the recovery in UK construction activity since social distancing restrictions eased, construction has lost 142,000 jobs since 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19, & lost 258,035 jobs since the recent peak of 2019 Q1 according to @ONS.
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… Image
UK Construction employment in 2020 Q3 was 7% lower than a year earlier & 11% lower than the recent peak of 2019 Q1, which is broadly in line with activity overall in construction overall at the end of September...
#ukconstruction Image
... given that UK construction demand overall has not returned to pre-Covid-19 levels (although it clearly has in some sectors e.g. infrastructure, housing new build & refurb) combined with fewer trades on site simultaneously due to social distancing especially...
#ukconstruction Image
Read 4 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
31 Jul 19
A thread on the latest CPA construction forecasts & 'No Deal' scenario (I'll summarise the results initially and then provide background/context)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing #Brexit #NoDeal
The CPA is forecasting that construction output will fall marginally (-0.3%) in 2019 & grow by 1.0% in 2020 assuming a smooth Brexit (either the Withdrawal Agreement with a fudge on the backstop or another delay to Article 50)...
#ukconstruction
... but construction activity is mixed by region & sector. Infrastructure, housing (North West, Yorkshire & Midlands) & industrial warehouses growth offsets falls in commercial, industrial factories & housing (London, South East & parts of the East)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 31 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
18 Dec 18
A 'No Deal' Brexit would pose major problems for the UK construction industry in the short-term & long-term. A brief thread...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
There are skills issues in UK construction. In 2018 Q3, 82% of contractors reported difficulties recruiting carpenters & joiners, 78% reported difficulties recruiting bricklayers & 63% reported difficulties recruiting plasterers.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
In 2018 Q3, 70% of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting roofers, 63% reported difficulties recruiting plumbers & half of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting painters & decorators.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Read 17 tweets

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