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12 Mar, 18 tweets, 17 min read
'V'-shape recovery for construction so far. Construction output in January 2021 was 0.9% higher than in December 2020 & 3.0% lower than one year earlier (pre-Covid-19) according to @ONS...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... The 0.9% monthly rise in construction activity during January 2021 (was after a 2.9% fall in December &) was mainly driven by growth in public housing repair, maintenance & improvement (cladding remediation), commercial & infrastructure...
#ukconstruction #construction
... & construction output in January 2021 remained 3.0% lower than a year earlier despite activity in repair, maintenance & improvement activity & infrastructure activity that is already above pre-Covid-19 levels already because...
#ukconstruction #construction
... construction output was dragged down activity in some sectors double-digit lower than a year earlier; public housing, industrial (lack of factories investment), commercial (offices, retail, leisure) & public non-housing (education & health)...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Note that % changes can distort the overall picture, esp. in small sectors. In £ rather than %, during January 2021 there was £418 million less construction activity than a year ago, mainly driven by a £369 million fall in commercial activity...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Looking at how construction output in key sectors evolved since January 2020 (pre-Covid-19), infrastructure was the least affected sector in the initial lockdown & recovered quickly so activity is above pre-Covid-19 levels whilst...
#ukconstruction #construction
... private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) output fell sharply in the 1st lockdown, recovered to 20% higher than pre-Covid-19 in October 2020 & has been slowing since but output in January remained 7.6% higher than pre-Covid-19...
#ukconstruction #construction
... & commercial (offices, retail, leisure) output fell over 40% in April 2020 in the 1st lockdown, initially recovering quickly as sites reopened & previous projects were finished but output stabilised at a level over 15% lower than pre-Covid-19.
#ukconstruction #construction
Private housing output in January 2021 was 0.2% higher than in December 2020 & 7.2% lower than a year earlier, which is a sharp recovery given that private housing output fell over 60% in April 2020 during the initial lockdown...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
... & private housing output since Autumn 2020 appears to have stabilised at around 7% lower than pre-Covid-19 although continued further housing market stimulus from government may boost house building levels during the year...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
Private housing rm&i output in January 2021 was 4.6% lower than in December 2020 but remained 7.6% higher than a year ago (pre-Covid-19). It recovered sharply following the initial lockdown due to a combination of...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
... pent-up demand, rising demand for additional space/workspace esp. from those working from home so rm&i activity has focused on outdoor/office-related space whilst activity such as plumbing & heating is more subdued plus...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
... inability to spend instore on non-essential retail, going out & tourism/travel also boosted rm&i activity but private housing rm&i activity peaked in October 2020 so the key question going forward will be...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
... as restrictions ease & homeowners return to spending in stores, cafes, bars, restaurants & on tourism will there be a shift back away from private housing rm&i this year esp. as the pent-up demand has already fed through...
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing #housing
Commercial (offices, retail, leisure) construction output in January 2021 was 4.5% higher than in December 2020 (but still lower than in November) & it was 15.4% lower than it was a year ago in January 2020 (pre-Covid-19)...
#ukconstruction #construction #commercialrealestate
... & in recent months small/medium-size commercial offices, retail & leisure construction activity has been affected by a lack of new projects to replace those that have recently finished whilst ...
#ukconstruction #construction #commercialrealestate
... activity on larger commercial projects (esp. towers) has suffered from lower productivity due to social distancing & other safety measures affecting the number of different groups of trades in tight spaces on site plus...
#ukconstruction #construction #commercialrealestate
... the additional time take for larger commercial projects (esp. towers) means that projects due to finish in 2020 are still continuing & will cost more, which has also hindered new investment in larger commercial projects.
#ukconstruction #construction #commercialrealestate

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More from @NobleFrancis

Noble Francis Profile picture
22 Dec 20
In November 2020 there were 115,190 property transactions in the UK, which is 8.6% higher than October & 19.3% higher than November 2019 according to HMRC...
#ukhousing #housing
gov.uk/government/pub…
... & as a reference point for housing market forecasts for the year, if UK property transactions continue at November 2020's level in December then, overall in 2020 UK property transactions would be 12% lower than in 2019...
#ukhousing #housing
... although note transactions in December tend to fall by around 1%-3% compared with November, which would imply that UK property transactions overall in 2020 are likely to be 13% lower than in 2019 despite monthly transactions currently above 2019 levels...
#ukhousing #housing
Read 4 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
18 Dec 20
In case anyone is interested, a few slides from my Construction & Brexit update presentation this week...
#ukconstruction
Only 24% of construction products used in UK construction are imported but of those 61% come from the EU & it is not just about the imported products but also the imported materials & components used in UK manufactured construction products...
#ukconstruction Image
The key construction products that are likely to affected by a 'No Deal' would be products in which demand already exceeds supply due to the sharp recovery in housing new build & refurb after the first lockdown; timber, roofing products & white goods...
#ukconstruction Image
Read 10 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
10 Dec 20
Construction output in October 2020 was 1.0% higher than in September but still remained 7.5% lower than a year ago. However, it is worth noting that there were considerable differences across the different construction sectors...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
...& how construction firms have experienced recession & recovery depends on the sector(s) they work in. Looking at the key sectors, infrastructure was the least affected in the initial lockdown & activity is effectively back at pre-Covid-19 levels whilst...
#ukconstruction
... private housing new build & rm&i were the worst affected sectors in the initial lockdown but activity recovered from mid-May. Private housing rm&i activity was back at pre-Covid-19 levels in October & private housing new build output was 4.5% lower...
#ukconstruction
Read 20 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
12 Nov 20
Total construction output in September 2020 was 2.9% higher than in August but still remained 10.0% lower than a year earlier but there were considerable differences across the different construction sectors...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... & on a quarterly basis, total construction output 2020 Q3 was unsurprisingly 41.7% higher than in (Lockdown 1-affected) Q2 but it remained 12.6% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction
... & note that whilst output in Q3 was 12.6% lower than a year ago, ONS employment data earlier this week shows construction employment in Q3 was 'only' 7.4% lower than a year earlier but hours worked in construction in Q3 were 17.1% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction
Read 23 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
10 Nov 20
In spite of the recovery in UK construction activity since social distancing restrictions eased, construction has lost 142,000 jobs since 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19, & lost 258,035 jobs since the recent peak of 2019 Q1 according to @ONS.
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… Image
UK Construction employment in 2020 Q3 was 7% lower than a year earlier & 11% lower than the recent peak of 2019 Q1, which is broadly in line with activity overall in construction overall at the end of September...
#ukconstruction Image
... given that UK construction demand overall has not returned to pre-Covid-19 levels (although it clearly has in some sectors e.g. infrastructure, housing new build & refurb) combined with fewer trades on site simultaneously due to social distancing especially...
#ukconstruction Image
Read 4 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
31 Jul 19
A thread on the latest CPA construction forecasts & 'No Deal' scenario (I'll summarise the results initially and then provide background/context)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing #Brexit #NoDeal
The CPA is forecasting that construction output will fall marginally (-0.3%) in 2019 & grow by 1.0% in 2020 assuming a smooth Brexit (either the Withdrawal Agreement with a fudge on the backstop or another delay to Article 50)...
#ukconstruction
... but construction activity is mixed by region & sector. Infrastructure, housing (North West, Yorkshire & Midlands) & industrial warehouses growth offsets falls in commercial, industrial factories & housing (London, South East & parts of the East)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 31 tweets

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