1. $GBTC premium is -12.95%: Bearish 2. TA (daily): $22K-$39K 3. 6/25 Options: Price>$40K, bullish; Otherwise, bearish 4. Futures: Neutral-bullish 5. On-chain: Bullish 6. TA (monthly): Target: $184K-$346K in Oct '21
1/ $GBTC's premium is still double digit in the red amidst the unlock of 64M GBTC shares this month. This indicates the share unlock could contribute to downward pressure on #BTC's price.
2a/ As tweeted on 6/3/21, #BTC's price was forming a symmetrical๐บpattern. It broke out of the pattern to the downside yesterday & in the worst case, the target price is $22K.
It traded to $31K today & trend line #4 (cloned from #1) provided support & it bounced from that level.
Since mid-April, #BTC has corrected by 53% & this coincided w/ the unlock of 90M $GBTC shares while its premium <-10% for most of the time.
Did the unlock of these shares contribute to BTC's major correction? More coming? Price floor?
TLDR: Probable. Depends. $25K-$30K in June
1/ Let's first review some background information.
Accredited investors could subscribe for $GBTC shares from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (Trust) at (Net Asset Value) NAV in 3 ways though there is a 6-month lock up before they could sell their shares in the secondary market.
2a/ Use cash to buy $GBTC shares at NAV
i. If the premium persists upon the 6-mo unlock, investors are able to realize the spread
ii. They can gain #BTC exposure if there's a sustained premium
iii. This's what most institutional investors did until GBTC's premium became -ve
#Bitcoin returned -1.98% in 4/21. Would #BTC have a negative return month in 5/21?
TLDR: No. Traditionally, May is a decent month for #BTC with monthly returns averaging 18%.
Target prices: $67K-$80K
Time to reach targets: 5/5-5/31
Low: $50K-$55K
1a/ Let's recap. #BTC didn't had a good month in 4/21 as expected, but it hit the lowest price target of $64K. After that, it corrected 27% to $47K before rebounding to $58K on 4/30.
I thought the 2nd dip (blue) corresponded to those of the last 2 cycles, but that wasn't it.
1b/ CTM now has its own ATH Tracker. Big shout out to @irandall13! We could track the projected price action of #BTC with more precision!
Per the ATH Tracker, #BTC could have a major run up in 5/21.
Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:
1. Halving cycle 2. On-chain metrics 3. Market cap 4. Use case 5. Stock-to-flow 6. Magic wand
Which one to lean into? Read on.
1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibankโs. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindseyโs @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.
1b/ Jordanโs model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.