๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: All 7 indicators show that BTC has neither peaked nor is in its bear phase

Note #3, #4 & #7 indicate that BTC could be in its mid-cycle correction*
* #4 & #7 show that BTC is behaving like its price action 6 days before the final dip in the mid-cycle correction in 2013.

If this plays out, we could see the low of the mid-cycle correction in 2021 around 6/12/21.๐Ÿ‘€

HODL #BTC!
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ฉ๐—ฅ๐—ฉ-๐—ญ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 1.63

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, MVRV-Z Score will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฎ. ๐Ÿญ-๐—ฌ๐—ฟ+ ๐—›๐—ข๐—Ÿ๐—— ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ (~๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿณ%): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 54%
๐Ÿฏ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ (>๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 0.004*

*This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2017.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Reserve Risk will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฐ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ฅ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ (๐—ฅ๐—›๐—ฅ) (>๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐—ž): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 6,321*

*This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2013 and 2017.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, RHR will go to the pink zone first & then trend downward. This hasn't occurred yet.
๐Ÿฑ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (๐Ÿฏ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ):
๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿญ

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Realized Cap HODL Waves will have to go through a 3-wave pattern. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฒ. ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐— ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿฐ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 1.33

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Puell Multiple will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿณ. ๐—ก๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—Ÿ (๐—•๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ): ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ

6/6/21 Value: 0.43 (Yellow)*

* This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2013.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, NUPL will be in Euphoria first. This hasn't happened yet.

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More from @AllenAu11

8 Jun
#BTC crashing?

TLDR: Short term pain, but bull phase intact.

1. $GBTC premium is -12.95%: Bearish
2. TA (daily): $22K-$39K
3. 6/25 Options: Price>$40K, bullish; Otherwise, bearish
4. Futures: Neutral-bullish
5. On-chain: Bullish
6. TA (monthly): Target: $184K-$346K in Oct '21
1/ $GBTC's premium is still double digit in the red amidst the unlock of 64M GBTC shares this month. This indicates the share unlock could contribute to downward pressure on #BTC's price.

2a/ As tweeted on 6/3/21, #BTC's price was forming a symmetrical๐Ÿ”บpattern. It broke out of the pattern to the downside yesterday & in the worst case, the target price is $22K.

It traded to $31K today & trend line #4 (cloned from #1) provided support & it bounced from that level. Image
Read 12 tweets
2 Jun
Since mid-April, #BTC has corrected by 53% & this coincided w/ the unlock of 90M $GBTC shares while its premium <-10% for most of the time.

Did the unlock of these shares contribute to BTC's major correction? More coming? Price floor?

TLDR: Probable. Depends. $25K-$30K in June
1/ Let's first review some background information.

Accredited investors could subscribe for $GBTC shares from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (Trust) at (Net Asset Value) NAV in 3 ways though there is a 6-month lock up before they could sell their shares in the secondary market.
2a/ Use cash to buy $GBTC shares at NAV

i. If the premium persists upon the 6-mo unlock, investors are able to realize the spread
ii. They can gain #BTC exposure if there's a sustained premium
iii. This's what most institutional investors did until GBTC's premium became -ve
Read 17 tweets
17 May
Amid all the gloom & doom about #BTC, let's do some in depth TA!

4-year cycle broken? V-shaped rebound? When? Seen correction low?

TLDR:

1 BTC price is tracking past cycles'
2 Price dump expected today
3 There could be a lengthening of this cycle
4 Peak price: $260K-$360K
1/ #BTC's recent price action is puzzling as it doesn't seem to follow the previous cycles'.

I was perplexed until I zoomed out & looked closely at the monthly BLX log chart to find my bearings.

BTC's price action is tracking its previous cycles'! BTC's 4-year cycle is intact. Image
2a/ I'm tracking the @HalvingTracker charts, but I've been looking at the wrong portions of the charts of previous cycles (๐Ÿ”ต).

Using the monthly BLX log chart, I found out where #BTC is at (๐Ÿ”ด) and where it is supposed to be in previous cycles and it all makes sense! Image
Read 10 tweets
14 May
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

#๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: All indicators show that #BTC is nowhere near its peak in the current cycle.

HODL #BTC!
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ฉ๐—ฅ๐—ฉ-๐—ญ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

5/13/21 Value: 3.08 Image
๐Ÿฎ. ๐Ÿญ-๐—ฌ๐—ฟ+ ๐—›๐—ข๐—Ÿ๐—— ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ (~๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿณ%): ๐—ก๐—ผ

5/13/21 Value: 55% Image
Read 8 tweets
1 May
#Bitcoin returned -1.98% in 4/21. Would #BTC have a negative return month in 5/21?

TLDR: No. Traditionally, May is a decent month for #BTC with monthly returns averaging 18%.

Target prices: $67K-$80K

Time to reach targets: 5/5-5/31

Low: $50K-$55K
1a/ Let's recap. #BTC didn't had a good month in 4/21 as expected, but it hit the lowest price target of $64K. After that, it corrected 27% to $47K before rebounding to $58K on 4/30.

I thought the 2nd dip (blue) corresponded to those of the last 2 cycles, but that wasn't it.
1b/ CTM now has its own ATH Tracker. Big shout out to @irandall13! We could track the projected price action of #BTC with more precision!

Per the ATH Tracker, #BTC could have a major run up in 5/21.
Read 16 tweets
13 Dec 20
Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:

1. Halving cycle
2. On-chain metrics
3. Market cap
4. Use case
5. Stock-to-flow
6. Magic wand

Which one to lean into? Read on.
1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibankโ€™s. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindseyโ€™s @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.

1b/ Jordanโ€™s model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.
Read 10 tweets

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