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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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16 Jun, 7 tweets, 5 min read
This time its personal!

The image below shows a large storm headed directly towards me here in Brittany, France which will arrive shortly. And it’s part of a bigger picture. #EuropeBigWet update.

NOTE: Today the Euro @ECMWF model is unavailable due to a data feed issue.
And appropriately given my two and half months monitoring this phenomena the storm that is approaching has also come 6000kms due north across the Western Sahara. I.E. its a #WestAfricaWaterPlume.
The wind is now coming up. The cows are sitting down and it’s eerily quiet. Earlier there was rumbling sounds of thunder in the distance.
The RainViewer app shows there is rain hereabouts but only a few drops at the moment. iPhone says I have till 4pm. And @zoom_earth satellite images confirm that looks about right.
Whither Cyclone Bill? (See thread)

Last night Bill was consumed by a big low near Newfoundland.

This low has now - with two storms running north in parallel (thread) - now become a lot lot larger and wetter.

Left: Last night
Right: This morning
As for Cyclone Bill, RIP.

But the spirt if Bill is due to return tomorrow afternoon in the form of a low which is forecast to arrive in the UK and Ireland on Sunday and then possibly hang around till Solstice next Wednesday.
And by Solstice, a lot of rain is expected to have fallen around here.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Jun
Unusual June rains continue in Saudi Arabia today, and for the first time since April rain fell throughout the night.

Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow. [SubThread - Mecca rains.] Image
Satellite Images arranged from East to West, the direction of tropical moisture movement and Monsoon Winds. ImageImageImageImage
North African 10-Day rainfall forecasts as of June 17th. Rains are extending north of the 15th parallel in all forecasts now. ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Jun
As forecast a low has formed north east of Newfoundland and is now heading east towards the UK, where recent forecasts have indicated it may remain for several days bringing rain to Western Europe.

Todays #EuropeBigWet update.
Here in Brittany underneath the cloud mass running up Europe's Western flank it has now been raining since 4pm yesterday. A break is forecast this afternoon before it resumes in the evening.

In the image here you see the cause, clouds travelling north over the Western Sahara.
Here you see a close up of the source of the storms heading northwards up Europe's West Coast.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
16 Jun
A conversation with Dr Common Sense. I think this will go down very well with the people of the world, less so with the foreign policy wonks (e.g. Bolton, Haas) or the activists (e.g. Kasparov or progressives).

Thread....
What has come clear to me after the last 15 odd minutes here is that Biden is trying to actually resetting the global foreign policy order itself.

The chorus will not get this in all likelihood, but this is a lot bigger than it looks.
The best way to explain this is with two examples.

Talking about cold wars. Biden said Putin doesn't want a new cold war. As if there isn't one.

Asked about election interference he said the U.S. does not interfere in other countries elections. As if it doesn't, hasn't.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
16 Jun
It's all set for another big day over the #HornofAfrica today. This big picture view contains some measurements of the monsoon wind plumes which are from Myanmar and India to the Horn.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica the Horn and the #MiddleEast follow:
And while its still early, 2.30pm local time, we already have #ArbaianStorms lighting up in Saudi Arabia.
Here's a view of the storms after sunset last night from 7pm to 10pm. At present the storms over Ethiopia appear to die down by midnight. But those further West continue through the night.
Read 16 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
15 Jun
Here we can see Tropical Storm Bill, which looks very cyclonic now, storming north with an outrider running a parallel line to the west over the US seaboard this morning.

Cyclone Bill, soon to become extra-tropical low Bill seems determined to join the #EuropeBigWet.
What is now TS Bill was previously shown in models storming across to Ireland and removing the Leviathan Storm from the picture over the weekend. But that didn't happen and the Leviathan storm over the Black Sea is now heading south.
Nothing went quite like the models had predicted.

In the interim we have had a nice break from #EuropeBigWet in Western Europe lately. But it's now due to come to an end. Here in Brittany I currently have rain forecast for the next eight days,
Read 12 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
15 Jun
There was a second day of big rains over the horn today. In this image on the right hand side you can see the incoming water baring winds from across the Arabian Sea from the Indian Monsoon.

Today's #HornOfAfrica #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
Here's a wider angle view. The water bearing mid-altitude jets provide much of the moisture that fuels the West African Monsoon, and its East African extension.
Three 10-day (+ one 12-day) accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa for June 15th from the GFS, CMC and KMA weather models.
Read 18 tweets

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