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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jun 17, 2021 • 29 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵

📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster

📍#B1351 #Beta—25%

📍#P1 #Gamma—38%

📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19 Image
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… Image
3) “Of the six variants currently designated as VOI, five were considered in our analysis and among these, only B.1.617.1 (#Kappa) and B.1.525 #Eta demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the effective reproduction number of 48% and 29%, respectively.” Image
4) To be clear, “faster” transmission of #DeltaVariant means “change in effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants relative to non-variants” (from 64 countries through 3 June 2021).

➡️Thus if the original Wuhan 1.0 strain had an R0 of ~3.5, x2 for #Delta—to get 7. 👀
5) Notice how the “other” older strain (non-VOC/VOI) in dark green have all but disappeared from most countries. #B117 #alpha came to the scene during the winter, and #P1 #Gamma dominated Brazil and didn’t let #Alpha take hold.

But in UK, #DeltaVariant has overtaken alpha. Image
6) Also, the other India-origin varian #Kappa #B16171, while not officially a higher-risk-rated VOC, seems to be faster than the VOC’s #Alpha #Beta, and maybe #Gamma. I think #Kappa deserves to be upgraded. It’s found in outbreaks in Australia 🇦🇺 at the moment. Image
7) The new #DeltaVariant faster transmission data is why @WHO declared it a VOC 3 weeks ago in late May. UK 🇬🇧 declared Delta a VOC 2 weeks ago… but US CDC only declared Delta a VOC… 2 days ago.
8) With data of #DeltaVariant like this 2 weeks ago, it was quite obvious #B16172 was poised to be by far the fastest variant found to date.
9) Sorry, I’ve been super annoyed at the slow movement of the CDC to act and warn about the #DeltaVariant. They were relatively quite while rest of the world scrambled to contain the #B16172 variant from India— sometimes warning VOC status 3 weeks is just too late.
10) I’ve been fuming for a while—because CDC should have acted when it saw clear data on #DeltaVariant consistently soar like this across many states. We have lots precious time.
11) #DeltaVariant also is more confusing to identify - it mimics the common cold, and the classic #COVID19 symptom of loss of smell is much more rare! This is a huge change.
12) When I see #DeltaVariant stats like these… I get worried. Granted, many of the double vaccinated are more elderly in the UK, but that doesn’t bode well for elderly protection then.
13) Similar #DeltaVariant worries from a 🇨🇦 hospital— ➡️Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—16 patients & 6 HCWS #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine. A 2x vaccinated 80-year old also died. cbc.ca/amp/1.6063802
14) Here is a BEST EXPLAINER video on #DeltaVariant. Part 1 of 3.

➡️ 1 dose isn’t enough.

by @IndependentSage @VickiGSP.
15) again, @IndependentSage also emphasizes that people who are either elderly or have morbidity may be even more susceptible to #DeltaVariant - even if vaccinated.

Video part 2 of 3 by @VickiGSP

16) We don’t want lockdown type restrictions. So the way to avoid that is with faster actions.
17) the main problem with #DeltaVariant is that the 1 dose strategy isn’t good anymore. 1 dose vaccine efficacy is likely just ~33% or so with either AstraZeneca or Pfizer. That is trouble for millions that aren’t two dose vaccinated yet.
18) back to the age issue, notice how virus neutralization drops with age. Problem with #DeltaVariant (right) and vaccine is that among young adults, they start at lower vaccine neutralization level than even an elderly person with original strain!
19) Now the crisis—Let this sink in—over 100 US counties right now have <20% of local population vaccinated. That is a “time bomb waiting to happen” says Dr @mtosterholm.

This will not end well low vaccinations area of the US & around world. #COVID19

20) And now @WHO_Europe chief says #Delta is soon going to take over Europe as well. Most countries in Europe are not acting quickly or at all. This is Germany right now… #DeltaVariant (brown) is soaring. #P1 Gamma is tagging along and rising too. Image
21) MORE SEVERE—UK scientists found #DeltaVariant to have 2.4-2.6x higher risk of hospitalization than B117 #AlphaVariant. But Alpha is 64% higher risk than original for hospitalization. So 1.6*2.5= 4.1x. That’s why Delta likely has 4x higher hospitalization risk than original ⚠️
22) Bottomline: #DeltaVariant is the most contagious fastest spreading variant to date. It’s more severe, and while 2 dose efficacy is good, Delta has 1 dose vaccine evasion—that is the “problem” as Dr Fauci put it. And most folks aren’t 2 dose vaccinated.
23) Regarding J&J, I have no direct evidence-based position. However… it’s not technically a 2-dose vaccine. if you’re interested what some immunologists think… read thread 🧵 below… but the CDC needs to put out guidance on this soon. Very soon.
24) Damnit we should have acted faster against #DeltaVariant. Now the world is going to pay a heavy heavy price.
25) In case anyone had any doubt how utterly dominant #DeltaVariant is— it just hit 99% of all #COVID19 cases in the UK. The US is where UK was in late April / early May.
26) please sign the petition to CDC for urgent #DeltaVariant action. It is by @endCOVID19 & @CovidActionGrp and a “coalition of scientists, public health officials, epidemiologists, health care workers, educators, advocates, parents, & concerned citizens:
change.org/p/centers-for-…
27) folks— we seriously need to act, and act damn fast. #DeltaVariant is going to be a serious scourge for many countries around the world soon, not just for India and UK. US is on the tipping point… see thread 🧵 below.
28) Siri, define “#DeltaVariant is fast spreading”….

➡️ Delta variant can infect people in mere seconds via fleeting contact.

Siri, does this fleeting exposure infection happened often?

➡️ it happened twice in one outbreak. Video camera evidence included. See thread 🧵
29) we must also be vigilant about #DeltaVariant and school children. Kids can transmit very efficiently. And kids can get #LongCovid too - 1 in 12 in fact.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 14
⚠️WORST FLU SEASON ever since 2002-2003 when we began to track flu (red, first graph). Worst hit this year are children ages 0-4 and 5-17. ▶️We also have significantly LOWER flu vaccine uptake this year, one of the lowest flu vaccine coverages (red 3rd graph). Indisputable facts. Image
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2) I don't need to tell you that certain US states have vastly lower vaccination rates than others. See map (lighter green, less flu vaccination coverage), and which have higher (darker green)...

If you want to see details and demographics on which state has the LOWEST flu vaccine coverage rates... the data is here.
cdc.gov/fluvaxview/das…Image
3) It’s not just the flu that is going around… Gaines County, TX, where the epicenter of the measles outbreak is, has one of the lowest measles vaccination rates too.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 11
INFLUENZA REACHES EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD in New York—Influenza A (Unknown variety) positivity soars (yellow), while hospitalizations stand higher than past 3 years. The rise of unknown subtyping Flu A has led NY to issue new alert to subtype all Flu A immediately for bird flu. Image
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2) This was the reason for the urgency in NY issuing an alert to subtype all hospitalized cases for bird flu if Flu A. See thread below 👇
3) the testing memo seems very aggressive for bird flu.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 10
BREAKING—22 States sue to block Trump WH cuts to NIH research grants. Image
2) Attorneys general representing 22 states sued the Trump administration on Monday, asking a federal judge to temporarily block a major policy change by the National Institutes of Health that would substantially limit payments for research overhead

statnews.com/2025/02/10/nih…
3) In the lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of MA, the AGs argued that NIH’s abrupt decision to set a 15% cap on payments for indirect costs would cause major harm to institution budgets, jeopardizing basic operations and medical research.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 8
💣TORPEDOING MEDICAL RESEARCH—NIH indirect grant funding just got slashed by Trump to 15%. What does this mean for you? Colleges and universities won’t be able to support students, tuition will increase, especially graduate students & researchers who find cures/preventions for cancer, diabetes, heart disease, Alzheimer’s and more. This will not only raise tuition and hurt pipeline of future scientists/doctors, but COMPLETELY DECIMATE MEDICAL & PUBLIC HEALTH RESEARCH. It will also give more power to big pharma to manipulate research agendas and buy out ideas that should remain in the public domain. Ie THE RICH BIOTECH TYCOONS (eg Vivek Ramaswamy) WILL GET RICHER. The lay public will someday only see future drug/tech prices soar as biotech and big pharma control more science and make more money.

Also, Trump’s NIH posted this graphic - but it ignores that most public universities also heavily rely on indirect to subsidize tuition, and train next generation of scientists and medical doctors doing research. (Public colleges can’t compete with wealthier schools who do have endowments, and hence will fall further behind). Public colleges that do medical research will literally fall apart without this mechanism.Image
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2) People don’t seem to get 2 things:

📌Indirect funds college administration and facilities and support services. Academic advising, building operations, new labs and classrooms for students— where does that money come from? If not indirect grants, then it’ll have to come more from ⬆️student tuition.
3) Most universities don’t have billion+ endowments. Most have almost none — so when you slash NIH indirect grant funding to just 15%… it hurts small schools and public colleges the most—smaller places might even go under. Rich school survive, public schools do not.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 7
😷Flu is so bad right now that schools across the country are closing. Schools around the U.S. are closing due to surges of flu which are sickening students and staff.

📌At least 41 states are currently reporting "very high" or "high" influenza-like illness activity Image
2) As the 2024–2025 flu season rages on with no peak yet in sight, some school systems are overwhelmed with sick students and staff.

Schools and even entire school districts are temporarily closing in Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Tennessee and other states.

today.com/health/cold-fl…
3) this is promoting now nationwide testing of hospitalized flu cases for Flu A and bird flu in humans!
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 7
BAM—called it again—there is clear proof of cat-human household transmission of bird flu. CDC scientists posted the data—but suddenly deleted soon afterwards. CDC is being blatantly muzzled. Image
Image
2) C.D.C. Posts, Then Deletes, Data on Bird Flu Spread Between Cats and People

The data, which appeared fleetingly online on Wednesday, confirmed transmission in two households. Scientists called on the agency to release the full report.

Gift 🎁 link

nytimes.com/2025/02/06/hea…
3) I’ve been reading the tea leaves 🍃 lately— it’s quite clear they know there is household transmission of bird flu. Hence the final alert issued by CDC before Trump took over was to get national testing of Flu A to see if bird flu in hospitals nationwide. See important 🧵
Read 6 tweets

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