⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021” eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
3) “Of the six variants currently designated as VOI, five were considered in our analysis and among these, only B.1.617.1 (#Kappa) and B.1.525 #Eta demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the effective reproduction number of 48% and 29%, respectively.”
4) To be clear, “faster” transmission of #DeltaVariant means “change in effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants relative to non-variants” (from 64 countries through 3 June 2021).
➡️Thus if the original Wuhan 1.0 strain had an R0 of ~3.5, x2 for #Delta—to get 7. 👀
5) Notice how the “other” older strain (non-VOC/VOI) in dark green have all but disappeared from most countries. #B117#alpha came to the scene during the winter, and #P1#Gamma dominated Brazil and didn’t let #Alpha take hold.
6) Also, the other India-origin varian #Kappa#B16171, while not officially a higher-risk-rated VOC, seems to be faster than the VOC’s #Alpha#Beta, and maybe #Gamma. I think #Kappa deserves to be upgraded. It’s found in outbreaks in Australia 🇦🇺 at the moment.
7) The new #DeltaVariant faster transmission data is why @WHO declared it a VOC 3 weeks ago in late May. UK 🇬🇧 declared Delta a VOC 2 weeks ago… but US CDC only declared Delta a VOC… 2 days ago.
9) Sorry, I’ve been super annoyed at the slow movement of the CDC to act and warn about the #DeltaVariant. They were relatively quite while rest of the world scrambled to contain the #B16172 variant from India— sometimes warning VOC status 3 weeks is just too late.
10) I’ve been fuming for a while—because CDC should have acted when it saw clear data on #DeltaVariant consistently soar like this across many states. We have lots precious time.
11) #DeltaVariant also is more confusing to identify - it mimics the common cold, and the classic #COVID19 symptom of loss of smell is much more rare! This is a huge change.
12) When I see #DeltaVariant stats like these… I get worried. Granted, many of the double vaccinated are more elderly in the UK, but that doesn’t bode well for elderly protection then.
13) Similar #DeltaVariant worries from a 🇨🇦 hospital— ➡️Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—16 patients & 6 HCWS #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine. A 2x vaccinated 80-year old also died. cbc.ca/amp/1.6063802
14) Here is a BEST EXPLAINER video on #DeltaVariant. Part 1 of 3.
15) again, @IndependentSage also emphasizes that people who are either elderly or have morbidity may be even more susceptible to #DeltaVariant - even if vaccinated.
17) the main problem with #DeltaVariant is that the 1 dose strategy isn’t good anymore. 1 dose vaccine efficacy is likely just ~33% or so with either AstraZeneca or Pfizer. That is trouble for millions that aren’t two dose vaccinated yet.
18) back to the age issue, notice how virus neutralization drops with age. Problem with #DeltaVariant (right) and vaccine is that among young adults, they start at lower vaccine neutralization level than even an elderly person with original strain!
19) Now the crisis—Let this sink in—over 100 US counties right now have <20% of local population vaccinated. That is a “time bomb waiting to happen” says Dr @mtosterholm.
This will not end well low vaccinations area of the US & around world. #COVID19
20) And now @WHO_Europe chief says #Delta is soon going to take over Europe as well. Most countries in Europe are not acting quickly or at all. This is Germany right now… #DeltaVariant (brown) is soaring. #P1 Gamma is tagging along and rising too.
21) MORE SEVERE—UK scientists found #DeltaVariant to have 2.4-2.6x higher risk of hospitalization than B117 #AlphaVariant. But Alpha is 64% higher risk than original for hospitalization. So 1.6*2.5= 4.1x. That’s why Delta likely has 4x higher hospitalization risk than original ⚠️
22) Bottomline: #DeltaVariant is the most contagious fastest spreading variant to date. It’s more severe, and while 2 dose efficacy is good, Delta has 1 dose vaccine evasion—that is the “problem” as Dr Fauci put it. And most folks aren’t 2 dose vaccinated.
23) Regarding J&J, I have no direct evidence-based position. However… it’s not technically a 2-dose vaccine. if you’re interested what some immunologists think… read thread 🧵 below… but the CDC needs to put out guidance on this soon. Very soon.
25) In case anyone had any doubt how utterly dominant #DeltaVariant is— it just hit 99% of all #COVID19 cases in the UK. The US is where UK was in late April / early May.
26) please sign the petition to CDC for urgent #DeltaVariant action. It is by @endCOVID19 & @CovidActionGrp and a “coalition of scientists, public health officials, epidemiologists, health care workers, educators, advocates, parents, & concerned citizens: change.org/p/centers-for-…
27) folks— we seriously need to act, and act damn fast. #DeltaVariant is going to be a serious scourge for many countries around the world soon, not just for India and UK. US is on the tipping point… see thread 🧵 below.
29) we must also be vigilant about #DeltaVariant and school children. Kids can transmit very efficiently. And kids can get #LongCovid too - 1 in 12 in fact.
Concerning—CDC now says that 42 states are seeing rising rates of #COVID19 again—with levels high or very high in 35 states (and rising). COVID wastewater levels have already surpassed last summer’s peak and climbing fast. #CovidIsNotOver cdc.gov/forecast-outbr…
2) Substantial 28% increase in one week. Question is how high it will go. It’s a new variant (mostly KP2 and KP3 and JN1), which are evasive against past infection and past vaccines.
A girl using cover name JANE DOE testified under oath at Ghislaine Maxwell’s criminal trial that she was introduced to Trump by Jeffrey Epstein when she was 14 years old. Pass it on.
Trump’s name appears 7 times in Epstein’s latest files. They regularly called each other according to phone logs. Trump says Epstein is a “terrific guy”. And he traveled on flights, according to logs, to Epstein’s island multiple times.
3) THIS STUFF IS NEW—not old Epstein-Trump info. New information regarding Epstein's child trafficking activities was released 7/2/24. Documents from 2016 are now out of date and do not show the depth of Trump's dealings with Epstein... READ MORE:
Reminder—Trump had expressed executing people on many occasions while President, according to his own Attorney General. Now the Supreme Court has green lit any official act with full presidential immunity. Germany did the same in 1933. It turned out great.
2) If we ignore history, we are bound to repeat it. How Germany became Nazi Germany in 1933….
📍 The New York Times Is Failing Its Readers Badly on Covid
📌“Example of ‘science opinion’ run amok in the [NY Times] is a piece… by Zeynep Tufekci, a commentator with no training in biological science or epidemiology… ➡️Tufekci plays into the hands of the anti-science politicians who now seek vengeance on the flimsiest of grounds.”
2) “Tufekci also adds to the ongoing pile-on about whether the directive to maintain a distance of six feet from others was needed. Although the precise distance was indeed somewhat arbitrary, there was no possibility of obtaining hard data in the relevant time frame. The six-foot distance was a reasonable assumption based on public health history, and the practice of social distancing for other respiratory pathogens, particularly those spread by droplets. It was also adopted in multiple other countries, for the same reasons.”
3) “The problem here isn’t that Tufekci is questioning the evidentiary basis of the six-foot rule—science and public health cannot progress if we don’t evaluate the results of our work. But that progress is more effective when grounded in good-faith inquiry, rather than the kinds of attacks Tufekci levels against government scientists for doing their best in desperate circumstances. This only serves to bolster the forces who seek to destroy the US public health infrastructure, not make it better.
Tufekci also leaves the impression that she alone realized SARS-CoV-2 was airborne early on. In fact, the debate about transmission was fast and furious within the scientific community at that time”
⚠️Whooping cough has smashed all records in UK🇬🇧 with barely any serious govt actions. These are NEW CASES PER WEEK, not cumulative. Each week smashing previous. Other countries rising too amid anti-vax. Pertussis is also airborne!
3) Whooping cough is also extremely contagious. For up to 3 weeks. With UK govt advising staying home for 3 full weeks if no antibiotic treatment. How many people being told that and doing that?