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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jun 17, 2021 • 29 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵

📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster

📍#B1351 #Beta—25%

📍#P1 #Gamma—38%

📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19 Image
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… Image
3) “Of the six variants currently designated as VOI, five were considered in our analysis and among these, only B.1.617.1 (#Kappa) and B.1.525 #Eta demonstrated a statistically significant increase in the effective reproduction number of 48% and 29%, respectively.” Image
4) To be clear, “faster” transmission of #DeltaVariant means “change in effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants relative to non-variants” (from 64 countries through 3 June 2021).

➡️Thus if the original Wuhan 1.0 strain had an R0 of ~3.5, x2 for #Delta—to get 7. 👀
5) Notice how the “other” older strain (non-VOC/VOI) in dark green have all but disappeared from most countries. #B117 #alpha came to the scene during the winter, and #P1 #Gamma dominated Brazil and didn’t let #Alpha take hold.

But in UK, #DeltaVariant has overtaken alpha. Image
6) Also, the other India-origin varian #Kappa #B16171, while not officially a higher-risk-rated VOC, seems to be faster than the VOC’s #Alpha #Beta, and maybe #Gamma. I think #Kappa deserves to be upgraded. It’s found in outbreaks in Australia 🇦🇺 at the moment. Image
7) The new #DeltaVariant faster transmission data is why @WHO declared it a VOC 3 weeks ago in late May. UK 🇬🇧 declared Delta a VOC 2 weeks ago… but US CDC only declared Delta a VOC… 2 days ago.
8) With data of #DeltaVariant like this 2 weeks ago, it was quite obvious #B16172 was poised to be by far the fastest variant found to date.
9) Sorry, I’ve been super annoyed at the slow movement of the CDC to act and warn about the #DeltaVariant. They were relatively quite while rest of the world scrambled to contain the #B16172 variant from India— sometimes warning VOC status 3 weeks is just too late.
10) I’ve been fuming for a while—because CDC should have acted when it saw clear data on #DeltaVariant consistently soar like this across many states. We have lots precious time.
11) #DeltaVariant also is more confusing to identify - it mimics the common cold, and the classic #COVID19 symptom of loss of smell is much more rare! This is a huge change.
12) When I see #DeltaVariant stats like these… I get worried. Granted, many of the double vaccinated are more elderly in the UK, but that doesn’t bode well for elderly protection then.
13) Similar #DeltaVariant worries from a 🇨🇦 hospital— ➡️Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—16 patients & 6 HCWS #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine. A 2x vaccinated 80-year old also died. cbc.ca/amp/1.6063802
14) Here is a BEST EXPLAINER video on #DeltaVariant. Part 1 of 3.

➡️ 1 dose isn’t enough.

by @IndependentSage @VickiGSP.
15) again, @IndependentSage also emphasizes that people who are either elderly or have morbidity may be even more susceptible to #DeltaVariant - even if vaccinated.

Video part 2 of 3 by @VickiGSP

16) We don’t want lockdown type restrictions. So the way to avoid that is with faster actions.
17) the main problem with #DeltaVariant is that the 1 dose strategy isn’t good anymore. 1 dose vaccine efficacy is likely just ~33% or so with either AstraZeneca or Pfizer. That is trouble for millions that aren’t two dose vaccinated yet.
18) back to the age issue, notice how virus neutralization drops with age. Problem with #DeltaVariant (right) and vaccine is that among young adults, they start at lower vaccine neutralization level than even an elderly person with original strain!
19) Now the crisis—Let this sink in—over 100 US counties right now have <20% of local population vaccinated. That is a “time bomb waiting to happen” says Dr @mtosterholm.

This will not end well low vaccinations area of the US & around world. #COVID19

20) And now @WHO_Europe chief says #Delta is soon going to take over Europe as well. Most countries in Europe are not acting quickly or at all. This is Germany right now… #DeltaVariant (brown) is soaring. #P1 Gamma is tagging along and rising too. Image
21) MORE SEVERE—UK scientists found #DeltaVariant to have 2.4-2.6x higher risk of hospitalization than B117 #AlphaVariant. But Alpha is 64% higher risk than original for hospitalization. So 1.6*2.5= 4.1x. That’s why Delta likely has 4x higher hospitalization risk than original ⚠️
22) Bottomline: #DeltaVariant is the most contagious fastest spreading variant to date. It’s more severe, and while 2 dose efficacy is good, Delta has 1 dose vaccine evasion—that is the “problem” as Dr Fauci put it. And most folks aren’t 2 dose vaccinated.
23) Regarding J&J, I have no direct evidence-based position. However… it’s not technically a 2-dose vaccine. if you’re interested what some immunologists think… read thread 🧵 below… but the CDC needs to put out guidance on this soon. Very soon.
24) Damnit we should have acted faster against #DeltaVariant. Now the world is going to pay a heavy heavy price.
25) In case anyone had any doubt how utterly dominant #DeltaVariant is— it just hit 99% of all #COVID19 cases in the UK. The US is where UK was in late April / early May.
26) please sign the petition to CDC for urgent #DeltaVariant action. It is by @endCOVID19 & @CovidActionGrp and a “coalition of scientists, public health officials, epidemiologists, health care workers, educators, advocates, parents, & concerned citizens:
change.org/p/centers-for-…
27) folks— we seriously need to act, and act damn fast. #DeltaVariant is going to be a serious scourge for many countries around the world soon, not just for India and UK. US is on the tipping point… see thread 🧵 below.
28) Siri, define “#DeltaVariant is fast spreading”….

➡️ Delta variant can infect people in mere seconds via fleeting contact.

Siri, does this fleeting exposure infection happened often?

➡️ it happened twice in one outbreak. Video camera evidence included. See thread 🧵
29) we must also be vigilant about #DeltaVariant and school children. Kids can transmit very efficiently. And kids can get #LongCovid too - 1 in 12 in fact.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 8
⚠️Tariffs On Medications Will Make America Sick

We might soon see the Trump WH impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals—patients will suffer and die.

During the past few weeks, President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff wars have rattled the stock market, decimated many Americans’ retirement funds, and promised to send grocery prices soaring—and his administration hasn’t even gotten to critical pharmaceutical tariffs yet. But that will likely be the next shoe to drop.
Trump exempted pharmaceuticals from his first round of tariffs in early April, but recently declared that he intends to impose “a major tariff” on imported medicines “very shortly.” These tariffs, he claims, will prompt pharmaceutical companies to leave countries including China and India and begin “opening up their plants all over the place.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a television interview in mid-April that these tariffs are coming in the “next month or two.”

What will this mean? 

Read on:
progressive.org/op-eds/tariffs…Image
2) The majority of brand name drugs used in the United States are imported. Even generic drugs often rely on ingredients and direct imports from China, including pain relievers and cardiovascular drugs used by millions.
3) The United States was already facing a drug shortage crisis before Trump’s tariff announcement. Now, his policies will drive upnot only the cost of medicines, but also other health care items such as X-ray machines and medical instruments.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
It’s a trap: CATCH 22—if you register, ICE will deport you. If you don’t register, you’ve now committed a crime for the first time, and ICE will deport you. Trump doesn’t care if you’ve paid all taxes and followed all laws—ICE will deport you.

apnews.com/article/illega…Image
2) The Department of Homeland Security announced that it was mandating that all people in the United States illegally register with the federal government, and said those who didn’t self-report could face fines or prosecution. ***Failure to register is considered a crime***
3) Registration will be mandatory for everyone 14 and older without legal status. People registering have to provide their fingerprints and address, and parents and guardians of anyone under age 14 must ensure they registered. The registration process also applies to Canadians who are in the U.S. for more than 30 days, such as so-called snowbirds who spend winter months in places like Florida.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 3
Now economists know how scientists felt back when he pushed “hydroxychloroquine”
2) HCQ preventing COVID deaths has been debunked— and it’s now been linked with deaths.

@JoshuaPCohen1
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…Image
@JoshuaPCohen1 3) JPMorgan on Trump Tariffs: “The largest tax increase since 1968” Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 28
My god—Earthquake (a Richter ~7.7) causes a skyscraper to collapse in Bangkok. Hope all the construction workers made it out.
2) this skyscraper collapse was captured from a distant car’s dashcam while on a highway

3) another view of the collapse. For those who lived through 9/11, this collapse is a bit triggering.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 27
Welp—kiss public health & medical research infrastructure in America goodbye for the next 4 years. RFK Jr plans to cut 10,000 jobs from Trump HHS. Image
2) this will not make America healthy again… not by a long shot. So dangerous and irresponsible.
3) “Kennedy is set to announce Thursday the planned changes, which include axing 10,000 full-time employees spread across departments tasked with responding to disease outbreaks, approving new drugs, providing insurance for the poorest Americans and more”.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
SICKENING—Trump’s DHS just deported a surgeon from Brown University Medical School—who is here legally on an H1B visa that doesn’t expire until 2027, and has committed no crimes. Trained in the U.S. at Ohio State, University of Washington, and Yale as a **transplant surgeon** (one of the most difficult surgical fields in all of medicine!!!), she is a highly trained doctor on kidney transplants, which cannot be easily replaced. Her phone was seized at the border. A federal judge handed down an injunction against her deportation—but she was already deported on a plane en route to Paris. Brown’s kidney transplant clinic is now strained by her deportation.Image
Image
2) Full text:

PROVIDENCE — A Rhode Island doctor who had traveled to Lebanon to see her parents was prevented from re-entering the United States at Boston’s Logan International Airport on Thursday evening, her lawyer and a colleague said.

Dr. Rasha Alawieh, 34, who lives in Providence, has been working at Brown Medicine’s Division of Kidney Disease & Hypertension since last July, and she [has] been part of the transplant service at Rhode Island Hospital, according to Dr. George Bayliss, the organ transplant division’s medical director. She has been studying and working in the United States for about six years, he said Friday.

The US consulate in Lebanon had issued her an H-1B visa, which is given to people in specialty occupations requiring expertise. The visa was valid through mid-2027, said Thomas S. Brown, an attorney representing her and Brown Medicine.

Alawieh was detained when she returned to Logan airport, and family members are afraid that she is about to be deported to Lebanon, he said.

“We are at a loss as to why this happened,” Brown said. “I don’t know if it’s a byproduct of the Trump crackdown on immigration. I don’t know if it’s a travel ban or some other issue.”

He said her phone has been seized and he has not been able to contact Alawieh.

Bayliss said a lawyer filed a petition with the US District Court in Massachusetts, and Judge Leo T. Sorokin issued an order saying Alawieh should not be moved outside of Massachusetts without 48 hours notice. But he said that message apparently did not reach immigration officials in time, and a plane carrying Alawieh left for Paris.

“This is outrageous,” Bayliss said in an interview. “This is a person who is legally entitled to be in the U.S., who is stopped from re-entering the country for reasons no one knows. It’s depriving her patients of a good physician.”

A US Customs and Border Patrol spokesperson, Ryan Brissette, was not able to immediately answer questions about Alawieh on Friday evening.

Bayliss said Alawieh graduated from the American University of Beirut medical school and came to the United States for a nephrology fellowship at Ohio State University. She then landed a transplant fellowship at University of Washington and had a residency in the Yale hospital system before starting at Brown Medicine last July, he said.

“She’s really a very humble and able person,” Bayliss said. “She takes care of her patients. She is talented and thoughtful and a great addition to our division.”

Bayliss said Alawieh went to Lebanon to visit parents and planned to be gone for two weeks. He said she texted a colleague at 6:30 p.m. Thursday saying she was back in Boston, but then her family heard from immigration officials.

Dr. Paul Morrissey, surgical director of the organ transplant division at Brown University Health, said Alawieh works on getting people in Rhode Island on the list for a kidney transplants, and that’s a crucial job at a time when there has been a lot of focus on the need for kidneys and their equitable distribution.

He said Alawieh should not have had any problem traveling out of the country with an H-1B visa.

“It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances,” Morrissey said. “It’s putting a strain on our office. Her work has been exceptional.”

bostonglobe.com/2025/03/14/met…Image
3) There is a new Trump ban against many countries, including tourist visa bans against all countries in the red and orange lists. This list is still tentative. And it shouldn’t have affected people with existing visas, such and the Brown kidney transplant surgeon Image
Read 8 tweets

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