1/10 THREAD Biden’s call to Putin and the new round of sanctions against Russia were planned at the same time.
2/10 During their phone call, Biden heard nothing from Putin that could put the sanctions on hold: nothing suggesting Russia would change its behavior. That, of course, was never going to happen.
3/10 The new sanctions, coming hot on the heels of the phone call, are a necessary framework to dialogue with Putin for the new U.S. administration. They will dispel even the slightest suspicion of a rapprochement, avoiding disappointment among U.S. allies.
4/10 Within this framework, it’s unlikely that Putin will accept the U.S. proposal to meet, since the proposal comes from a position of strength.
5/10 Even if he accepts it, the summit could descend into a war of words like that already seen between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart. And there’s not much point in a summit like that.
6/10 The summit will likely take place, only at a later date, when things are less tense. America cannot avoid a dialogue with Russia.
7/10 Sanctions won’t change Russia’s behavior, because the list of demands is too long and vague-from Donbas & Crimea to election interference, cyber attacks & disinformation. With such a long list of demands, there’s little prospect of the new sanctions ever being lifted.
8/10 The U.S. move along the path of sanctions could mean that Russia will tread more carefully along the path of escalation. It could decide against some future tough actions.
9/10 But for now, Russia will make no notable overtures of peace. Accordingly, the escalation over the Donbas may continue.
10/10 The US will be able to chalk up the lack of a major war to the success of its sanctions policy.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
