1/8 It appears that leaders on both sides of the #Russia -#Ukraine border capitalized on the tension there to make contact with the new U.S. administration. My piece about recent events around #Donbass carnegie.ru/commentary/843…
2/8 The current picture bears a lot more resemblance to the eve of Russia’s five-day war with Georgia back in 2008 than it does to events in Ukraine in 2014 bit.ly/3esaJj5
3/8 If the previous escalation was preceded by pro-Russian mobilization in the east and south of Ukraine, giving it the appearance of a civil war, then the current tension looks a lot more like maneuvers ahead of a conventional conflict between two armies bit.ly/3esaJj5
4/8 Whereas the Russian operation in Crimea was sudden and secret, in 2008 and now, troops were being moved openly, even demonstratively bit.ly/3esaJj5
5/8 Moscow now has a motive for punishing Zelensky, similar to the one it had in 2008 with Saakashvili. Zelensky came to power as head of the party of peace, but, with his popularity on the decline, he performed a dramatic anti-Russian about-face bit.ly/3esaJj5
68/ Despite all of these similarities with 2008, the main difference now is that it is unlikely that a large-scale war is part of either side’s plans bit.ly/3esaJj5
7/8 Biden’s meeting many years ago with Andrei Gromyko, best known in the West as Russia’s toughest foreign minister has been the subject of considerable attention in Russia, and it may help the two modern leaders get down to business bit.ly/3esaJj5
8/8 After all, it shows Biden to be an old-school politician: the kind who knew how to wage proxy wars and fight for dissidents and human rights, all while remaining in regular talks with the enemy bit.ly/3esaJj5
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