Thread by @baunov

1/9 THREAD on spring deescalation: Putin’s national address focused on social support & infrastructure, not military, ideological or geopolitical issues. There was nothing for critics to seize on. It wasn’t really about domestic policy either though, over which questions remain.

2/9 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to be pulled back from Russia’s border with Ukraine, where they had been massing for several weeks.

3/9 The imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been moved to a hospital: first to a prison ward, then to a regular hospital in the town of Vladimir. It’s likely he will be seen by his Moscow doctors, who are calling on him to end his hunger strike.

4/9 Crucially, the protest in Moscow held on the day of Putin’s state of the nation address was not met with a tough crackdown and mass arrests, even though the Kremlin does not like it when the image of key events (like the address) is blighted by such rallies.

5/9 Despite rumors ahead of Putin’s meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko the day after the address, nothing sensational—like an announcement that the two countries would merge into one—came out of it.

6/9 But nor was anything more realistic announced, such as the potential geopolitical bugbears of Belarusian recognition of Crimea, or the opening of a Russian military base in Belarus. Lukashenko has moved closer to Moscow, but no new irreversible decisions have been taken.

7/9 US ambassador John Sullivan has agreed to leave Moscow, which is also a part of deescalation. If he’d stayed as a matter of pride against the Kremlin’s wishes, he wouldn’t have been able to do his job properly anyway. Practical considerations have won over symbolism.

8/9 Now Sullivan can get back to working productively—on the meeting between Biden and Putin. Putin clearly wants to make use of the chance offered by Biden, and Biden doesn't want to retract the offer.

9/9 But the independent news website Meduza.io has been declared a foreign agent, showing just how fragile all these steps toward deescalation really are.