1/9 THREAD on spring deescalation: Putin’s national address focused on social support & infrastructure, not military, ideological or geopolitical issues. There was nothing for critics to seize on. It wasn’t really about domestic policy either though, over which questions remain.
2/9 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to be pulled back from Russia’s border with Ukraine, where they had been massing for several weeks.
3/9 The imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been moved to a hospital: first to a prison ward, then to a regular hospital in the town of Vladimir. It’s likely he will be seen by his Moscow doctors, who are calling on him to end his hunger strike.
4/9 Crucially, the protest in Moscow held on the day of Putin’s state of the nation address was not met with a tough crackdown and mass arrests, even though the Kremlin does not like it when the image of key events (like the address) is blighted by such rallies.
5/9 Despite rumors ahead of Putin’s meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko the day after the address, nothing sensational—like an announcement that the two countries would merge into one—came out of it.
6/9 But nor was anything more realistic announced, such as the potential geopolitical bugbears of Belarusian recognition of Crimea, or the opening of a Russian military base in Belarus. Lukashenko has moved closer to Moscow, but no new irreversible decisions have been taken.
7/9 US ambassador John Sullivan has agreed to leave Moscow, which is also a part of deescalation. If he’d stayed as a matter of pride against the Kremlin’s wishes, he wouldn’t have been able to do his job properly anyway. Practical considerations have won over symbolism.
8/9 Now Sullivan can get back to working productively—on the meeting between Biden and Putin. Putin clearly wants to make use of the chance offered by Biden, and Biden doesn't want to retract the offer.
9/9 But the independent news website Meduza.io has been declared a foreign agent, showing just how fragile all these steps toward deescalation really are.

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More from @baunov

22 Apr
1/8 It appears that leaders on both sides of the #Russia -#Ukraine border capitalized on the tension there to make contact with the new U.S. administration. My piece about recent events around #Donbass carnegie.ru/commentary/843…
2/8 The current picture bears a lot more resemblance to the eve of Russia’s five-day war with Georgia back in 2008 than it does to events in Ukraine in 2014 bit.ly/3esaJj5
3/8 If the previous escalation was preceded by pro-Russian mobilization in the east and south of Ukraine, giving it the appearance of a civil war, then the current tension looks a lot more like maneuvers ahead of a conventional conflict between two armies bit.ly/3esaJj5
Read 8 tweets
15 Apr
1/10 THREAD Biden’s call to Putin and the new round of sanctions against Russia were planned at the same time.
2/10 During their phone call, Biden heard nothing from Putin that could put the sanctions on hold: nothing suggesting Russia would change its behavior. That, of course, was never going to happen.
3/10 The new sanctions, coming hot on the heels of the phone call, are a necessary framework to dialogue with Putin for the new U.S. administration. They will dispel even the slightest suspicion of a rapprochement, avoiding disappointment among U.S. allies.
Read 10 tweets
23 Mar
1/7 In 2017 #Trump answering a similar question did not reject outright the questioner’s assertion that #Putin was a killer, but managed to dilute his answer. My current piece about «Putin is a killer» from president #Biden interview to @abcnews carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
2/7 Biden’s blunt assessment was meant to show the rest of the world that the US is returning to world leadership based on high moral standards. This should be met with particular approval by U.S. allies who are under pressure from Russia bit.ly/3tPfU2K
3/7 As Biden was one of the architects of the “reset” with Russia during Barack Obama’s first presidential term, it’s important for him to make it clear that no amount of common interest or work on specific policy areas means a new reset is in the offing bit.ly/3tPfU2K
Read 7 tweets
25 Feb
1/4 On #Armenia: the post-Soviet space has seen everything from wars, revolutions and palace coups to dictatorships, hybrid regimes and the hereditary handover of power. Everything—except a classic military coup.
2/4If the army ousts Armenian Prime Minister Nikol #Pashinyan and appoints a new government—provisional or otherwise—to maintain order until new elections, it will be the first genuine military coup in the post-Soviet space.
3/4 #Armenia would join the ranks of an exclusive club of countries in the Middle East and Asia in which the army performs the role of a political moderator and overseer.
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
1/7 THREAD #Navalny is very successful at reaching out to and inspiring young Russians. But #Russia’s population is ageing.

My try to answer the questions, where is Russian #protest everybody was closely following just one week ago. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
2/7 The idea of dignity as a trigger for political protest in Russia is complicated in #Navalny case by the fact that for so many Russians, dignity has long been expressed in the form of resistance to the West. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
3/7 There is huge inertia within Russian society. Most people sense that the regime is not, in fact, on the verge of collapse, and that mass street protests are unlikely to accelerate the end of the #Putin era carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
Read 7 tweets
2 Feb
1/4 I had mistakenly thought that with the three and a half year sentence #Navalny would be in prison during the Russian presidential elections in 2024.
2/4 But since the previously served year of home arrest counts toward the sentence, he should be released just before the elections in March 2024. Could it be a sign that Putin plans to leave by 2024 and organize snap elections, transferring power to a successor?
3/4 Unfortunately, there will always be the possibility of adding to Navalny's sentence at a later date. At the same time, it is unclear what would complicate the transfer of power more – Navalny imprisoned or free.
Read 4 tweets

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