Srinivasan Ramani Profile picture
Jun 22, 2021 8 tweets 7 min read Read on X
#Vaccination reality check: Yesterday marked the highest number of jabs in a single day in India. thehindu.com/news/national/… But as this shows, the peak seems artificial: scroll.in/article/998156…. Remains to be seen if supply constraints have been eased to maintain this pace. (1/n)
The pace of vaccination has definitely picked up but there are miles to go before targets are reached. Here is what, that remains to be done. (2/n) @the_hindu #Datapoint by @i_sumantsen and @nihalani_jasmin
Here's where we stand in terms of the estimated % of population that has been vaccinated so far, countrywide, and age-group wise. Only 3.7% of all Indians have been fully vaccinated & 17.2% have got atleast 1 dose (3/n) (See this tracker live on thehindu.com)
Here's how we compare with other countries on the vaccination front (atleast 1 dose) Data is live here: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat… .. India needs to do much more to reach levels set by other comparable countries. (4/n)
Here's a live tracker on the state of vaccination across States and age groups in India: thehindu.com/coronavirus/ States like #UP, #Bihar and #TN need to pull up their socks to increase the pace of jabs (5/n)
My colleague @VigneshJourno found that supply constraints had slowed the pace of vaccination with utilisation peaking in several States & besides not all States received the vaccines as per their requirements. This was as of June 9, 2021: thehindu.com/news/national/… (6/n)
#India must ramp up vaccination levels by easing distribution, enhancing supply after the disaster wrought by the second wave. The reason for this imperative: mutations. Here's an explainer of the "Delta plus" variant: thehindu.com/sci-tech/healt… (7/n)
Lastly, despite the changed policy in procurement (to be handled only by the Union govt now), there remain concerns about pricing & other issues which need clarity. @sujakrao in @the_hindu today: thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/… (n/n)

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More from @vrsrini

Jun 4
Some very interesting vote share numbers. In urban seats (major cities), NDA's vote share this time - 52.8%. 2019 - 48%. But in semi-urban, semi-rural and rural seats - 39.9% vs 42.5%, 37.3% vs 42% and 44.1% vs 44.9%. Its the mofussil towns where the BJP has had a fall. 1/n
Startling numbers from #UttarPradesh. Vote shares - BJP+: 44.12% (BJP: 42.13%), INDIA: 42.7% (SP: 31.98%, INC: 10.64%), BSP: 9.2%. Massive increase in INDIA vote share. 2/n
Region-wise:

South India: NDA: 50 seats (leading), 36.1%, INDIA: 70, 37.7%, Others: 12, 26.2%
in 2019 it was NDA: 33, 29.8%, INDIA: 65, 37.9%, Others: 34,32.3%

The INDIA bloc has retained its vote share, but BRS/AIADMK/etc decline plus TDP/JSP alliance has benefitted BJP (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 4, 2021
Next in the series on #excessdeaths in India: #Maharashtra. We find that excess deaths were 2.8-4.1 times the official COVID19 toll between April 2020 and May 2021.
thehindu.com/news/national/… (1/n)
The online registrations data showed 6,67,900 & 6,93,800 deaths in 2018 and 2019 : 63.9% & 66.6% of the CRS' (2019) numbers. Plus some 6 districts had inconsistent data in 2018 and 2019. To come up with a clearer "excess deaths" estimate, we omitted them for adjustment (2/n)
If excess deaths were adjusted based on the % availability of data for 2018 & 2019 & re-calculated for the State (without the six omitted districts), the estimate increased to 3,10,727 deaths corresponding to a multiple of 4.1 over the official death toll of 75,877. (3/n)
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2021
Next in the series on #excessdeaths that we are tracking State and city-wise across the country: Himachal Pradesh. "Excess deaths" here were just about twice the official COVID19 tally between April 2020 and May 2021: thehindu.com/news/national/… (1/n)
#Himachal had an interesting pattern. While deaths peaked in May 2021, the excess deaths multiple over the actual COVID19 death count was higher in 2020 (in the 1st wave: 2.8) than in 2021 (1.6). (2/n)
All said, #Himachal seems to be tracking #COVID19 deaths better than other North Indian States for whom full data on death registrations has been available so far. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Jun 21, 2021
Excess deaths in #Karnataka were nearly 6 times (5.77) the COVID19 death toll from April 2020 to May 2021. That's close to the undercount factor in Tamil Nadu (6.2). My colleague Sharath S & I find based on monthwise #CRS data from 2015 to 2021 (1/n) thehindu.com/news/national/…
Karnataka recorded an estimated 1,67,888 excess deaths over the baseline mortality for five years (2015-19) in the pre-pandemic years. Graph shows the excess deaths peaks both in the 1st and in the 2nd wave (2/n)
Here's a comparison with the estimated undercount factors in other States for whom a similar exercise was done. #excessdeaths. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu with an undercount factor of 4.7/6.5 were better off than A.P. (34) & MP (42) for similar periods (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7, 2021
Context on why Centre finally heeds #SupremeCourt (after being questioned over its irrational policy) & the Opposition on centralised procurement of the vaccines: No. of people with 2 doses as a % of population is just 3.3% (See live tracker in thehindu.com) (1/n)
The supply from the Centre to the States was around 24.6 crores and the utilisation was around 23.11 crores (including wastage) which is roughly 93.94% of supply. Essentially States used nearly all of the Centre's supply (2/n)
Several #States raised global tenders to get procure vaccines from abroad. So far (IIRC), not a single vaccine manufacturer abroad has agreed to sell to #States. (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
May 15, 2020
First, a lockdown is announced with a 4 hour notice period and without any preparations for the massive job losses for daily wagers/ casual labourers, which most migrant workers are in many Indian cities. (1/n)
Then, when workers ran out of jobs, essentials, social nets, they couldn't avail transport services to go back to their native places which offered them atleast a semblance of a social net as transport was shut down. Some buses were started and then they were shut. (2/n)
Then workers were asked to avail facilities provided by State governments where food and shelter were to be given to them. Data showed that except for Kerala & Delhi (to some extent), other States couldn't set this up sufficiently for such people. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets

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