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EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

21 May

Thread

On Syrian Refugees, voting & recent street violence

1-Remember there are nearly 1.2 m refugees. Those involved in recent events are tiny %

2-Though often repeated, one is yet to produce any credible evidence of them being forced to vote

So who is voting for Assad? =>

Those making the trip were on busses likely arranged in various regions through support of Embassy / Hizbollah

There appears to be no intimidation behind making the trip. Most of those seem to be dual citizens and / or connected to the Hizb ==>

Average Syrians who registered to vote may have done so for different reasons

-Get a favorable security review when needed
-May have $100 charge at border waived on return
-Talk of free sandwich / drink (no joke)

Read 4 tweets

EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

29 Mar

When one participates in any Eco / Political discussions in multi-Religious / Sectarian regions like the Levant #Lebanon #Syria , one question always emerges:

Can the people of this region Co-exist?

Can they accept / embrace the other side?

By all accounts, answer seems No

2-War in #Syria has rendered the days of heavy top-down Centralized State obsolete. Efforts must now be exclusively directed at formulating a new post war system that takes away power from the center & hands it to the periphery as this is the de facto state of affairs anyway

3-While #Lebanon already had its own civil war, it is not difficult to notice the return of the old sectarian cleavages that never went away. As the pie gets smaller with the current crisis, divisions have intensified & spirit of co-existence is tested in daily commentary

Read 7 tweets

EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

20 Mar

You’ve been bombarded by experts on what #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis is all about

Here is a simple explanation:

Consumers between 1997-2018 outsmarted / screwed current and future Lebanese consumers by using an overvalued currency to fund their purchases

End of story

2-This is not to say this was a deliberate or conscious decision by 1997-2018 to screw or outsmart the future generation of consumers

As one of my friends used to tell me

Living in #Lebanon during that period was too good to be true. He may not have known why but he felt it

3-This friend was huge spender. He lived at one of the city’s 5 star hotels for almost 18 years. He earned enough interest income to fund his lavish life style. He bought real estate. He had a driver. When I met him in late 2019, he said:

This had to come to and end. I knew it

Read 5 tweets

EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

27 Feb

Thread on US intervention in ME

1-Israel
2-Oil
3-Counter-Terrorism / War on Terror

Are the broad categories that define U.S strategic interests in the region

Many have attempted to include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in above list. Syria has been a case in point ==>

2-Israel & Oil are already secured enough

This has left counter terrorism or war on terror (WOT) as main rationale behind recent U.S interventions

Responsibility to Protect has been getting traction of late but as Syria’s case has shown it’s still work in progress in DC

3-Sep 11 of course capitulated War on Terror to the top of list behind recent U.S interventions in the region. While many may argue this was politically unavoidable in the case of Afghanistan, what about the more recent interventions to help defeat ISIS?

Read 10 tweets

EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

22 Feb

#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war

Yet,

When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?

Did Washington know?

More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention

==>

2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"

3-When Damascus became convinced that opposition had no intention of rolling back the unfolding crisis, decision was made to reach out to the big allies. Initial communication with Moscow took place in 2012 via respective heads of security

Read 16 tweets

EHSANI22

@EHSANI221

18 Feb

Thread:

#Syria ‘s Old-style Baathists versus Bashar Assad’s liberalization policies

One thing that old-style Baathists understood was that being in the Arab nationalist anti-Western resistance camp had to go hand in hand with economic self-sufficiency

Boy, were they right

2-Since late 1960’a & early 1970’s Eco Self-Sufficiency became the hallmark of of #Syria ‘s political & social economy

Promote local industry to conserve on foreign currency and imports

Promote local agriculture to provide food security & heavily subsidized basic food staples

3-While self-sufficiency may made sense politically, it was an inefficient system that misallocated resources and allowed heavy handed Govt meddling in nearly every facet of Economic life. Many times, #Syria ‘s Govt found itself in the business of running businesses

Read 13 tweets

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