“IRON LUNG 🫁”—before the polio vaccines, the iron lung machines was the mechanical lung needed to keep kids alive. Let’s create a world where **NO CHILD IS EVER PARALYZED BY POLIO** ever again. #VaccinesWork#vaccinate
2) 99.9% of all polio is now eliminated. How? we once vaccinated almost a million people in just 2 days in just 1 county. We can do it again if we try.
📍NEAR VERTICAL—The South is now seeing #DeltaVariant in its true vertical exponential form. So many not vaxxed. Short of lockdowns, it now all comes down to masks, ventilation & air disinfection—but if Delta has R0=6, it’s hard to bend curve; if R0=8, it’s almost impossible.🧵
2) the truth is, the best case scenario of 70% fully #vaccinated and vaccine efficacy of 99% for total infection and R0=6 is somewhat of a fairytale for the near future. Vaccinations have stalled. And efficacy is likely <70%, maybe even 40%. HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
3) the upper estimate for the R0 for #DeltaVariant is ~8, but this means that with realistic 60% vaccine efficacy and 64% fully vaxxed (very few countries have that), and excellent compliance with PH measures like masks & no indoor gatherings (that’s a stretch), its not enough!!!
⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵
2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.
3) I’m trying to find good things in the report—the 88% efficacy against hospitalization and 91% VE for severe #COVID19 death is good. But it is much weaker than the 93% reported 2 weeks ago for hospitalization, and 98% from May.
⚠️10x hospitalization ⬆️ jump—many hospitals in Florida have more #COVID19 patients than ever before—all time pandemic record. At 2 UF hospitals in Jacksonville, the number of patients has risen to over 140, up from just 14 last month. Please #vaccinate nytimes.com/2021/07/23/us/…
2) in some regions with lagging vaccination rates and rising virus cases — such as Northeast Florida, Southwest Missouri, Southern Nevada — the highly contagious #DeltaVariant has flooded intensive care units and Covid wards that, not long ago, had seen patient counts shrink.
3) At the two hospitals in Jacksonville, the number of Covid-19 patients is higher than last summer, and higher than over the winter. “It’s very frustrating,” said Dr. Leon L. Haley Jr. “Each day we continue to go up. There’s no sense of when things are going to curtail.”
Hospitalized guy refuses to get vaccinated—asked further if he would have wanted to prevent his #COVID19 hospitalization, he still doubles-down saying no. Should we charge higher insurance premiums for unvaccinated, like we do for cigarette smokers?
2) “I would have gone through this (still get hospitalized), don’t shove it down my throat”… 🤦🏻♂️
3) this is how life insurance companies adjust for smoking. 2x to 3x the life insurance premiums. Because actuaries know what cost them money.
📍BREAKING & BROKEN—CDC guidance on masking unchanged, even as #DeltaVariant surges, @CDCDirector Rochelle Walensky said Thursday. @RWalensky declined to say if the CDC is considering changing the guidance. ➡️History will also judge critical inactions. 🧵 reuters.com/business/healt…
2) Her comments come a day after U.S President Joe Biden said that the CDC is likely to advise unvaccinated children to wear masks in school as districts around the country prepare to reopen for the coming school year. reuters.com/world/us/biden…
3) The seven-day average of new cases in the United States is up 53% over the previous week, Walensky said. The Delta variant, which was first found in India, now comprises more than 80% of new cases nationwide and has been detected in more than 90 countries.
📍A revealing outbreak among gold miners infected with #P1#GammaVariant in French Guiana—55% of 44 infected—no severe but 87% symptomatic—65% fever, 22% difficultly breathing. Attack rate was 60% in fully Pfizer-vaccinated, 75% in unvaccinated miners.🧵 wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…
2) It all likely started with an asymptomatic index case… “Patient 40 could be the index case-patient; he reported visiting his family the previous week and had an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with Ct of 33–35.” 👀—a very low viral load index that triggered the cluster!
3) Any vaccine cold chain break? No. “Several BNT162b2 batch numbers were involved. Vaccine temperature had been monitored and electronically recorded by LogTag Analyzer (LogTag Recorders, logtag-recorders.com) without any break in the cold chain.”