Seroprevalence in #Kerala is 42.7% compared to 67.6% as per the note shared byGovt. of Kerala y'day. i.e., a difference of 25% points.

It implies, the pandemic spread in Kerala has stayed consistently well below the national avg. indicating a more flattened curve in Kerala.
1/
Both 7-day avg. daily new cases & test positivity rates are on a steady rise in #Kerala as ~50% of the popn still remain susceptible.

Daily testing has been stable around 1.3L/day

The state needs to significantly increase its daily testing given the high & increasing TPR
2/
Although the daily reported deaths have declined a bit, the mortality rate itself has been on the rise.

At 0.5%, it is higher than the previous wave.
3/
Daily new cases are either rising or flat across all the districts.

A 7-day averaging could not smoothen the reported daily deaths which are fluctuating widely across many districts. This is not ideal.
4/
This thread provides an explanation of why the cases in Kerala are still not falling while it has fallen in much of the rest of the country.
5/5
Cases continue to surge in Kerala with 18531 new cases reported today.

TPR has reduced due to increased testing at 1.56L.

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More from @RijoMJohn

22 Jul
.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.

As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts.
1/
The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here.
2/
cgdev.org/publication/th…
The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
3/
Read 19 tweets
18 Jul
Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?

This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it.
1/ Image
Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.

It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala
2/ Image
Testing after good tracing & tracking would make it much more effective. This may result in higher TPR, but it's a cost effective use of testing infrastructure

Kerala has not only done nearly double the number of tests per million but it had a much better case detection rate.
3/
Read 13 tweets
12 Jun
Thread.

1/ An article from @TheEconomist claiming that India's true #covid19 mortality maybe 5-7 times than the reported numbers has really irked GoI so much so @MoHFW_INDIA has now published a rebuttal that is short on substance but abundant on rhetoric.
2/ After using words like "speculative", "misinformed", "unsound" etc. to describe the article, the rebuttal interestingly says "there is no peer-reviewed scientific data available" for some studies used in that report.

I'm glad GoI takes scientific peer review seriously.
3/ Then why has it made claims on the safety & effectiveness of Covaxin without backing up with peer-reviewed scientific data?

What was the peer-reviewed scientific data based on which #Coronil got Ayush Ministry certification?

Thi list is actually long. So, I'll stop.
Read 15 tweets
9 Jun
Data thread on #COVID19Vaccine distribution across Indian states

*Age group:
HCWs & FLWs are among all age groups

Most of the limited supply should ideally go to the 60+ followed by 45-60 until supply is sufficient. Yet, a large chunk is going to 18-45 in some states

1/
There is a considerable gender gap in the distribution of vaccinations in some states

2/
88% of all doses so far were Covishield at the national level, followed by Covaxin. Sputink already distributed in some states such AP, TS, MH, KA, KL, & WB.
3/
Read 5 tweets
8 Jun
1) #Kerala's #COVID19 mortality rate has been consistently increasing over the past month after reaching a low of 0.3%. Still one of the lowest in India.

Total reported #COVID19 deaths are at 10,157, the 10th largest in India.
2) There are concerns of underreporting of deaths with mortality rates being significantly different across districts ranging from 0.1% to 0.8%.

During the 2nd wave from March 18 in KL, the share of total cases from Trivandrum is only 10% while that of deaths is 22%.
Read 4 tweets
29 May
1/ This was the thing that greeted me on my WhatsApp today morning. Let's examine its utter folly.

Is India's Vaccine Maitri the reason we are getting all those foreign aid? I do not think so.

why?
2/ First of all, of the total vaccine exports from India till y’day, only ~16% were sent as Grants by GoI. Others were all SII fulfilling its commitments one way or the other. GoI has nothing to do there or take credit for.
If anything, GoI had to stop SII from exporting further.
3/ Even out of this 16%, about 65% went to 5 of our neighbors (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, & Maldives). The remaining went mostly to other low-income coutries.
Read 7 tweets

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