@TNMP had 2 gas facilities registered as critical infrastructure before the storm. Now has 177. This really is stunning. They're a small player but have a significant Permian footprint. #txlege#txenergy#TexasBlackouts
Liz Jones of @oncor asks the @PUCTX for clarification on the load management section of SB3. Not clear if that fits within current #energyefficiency programs or somehow exists outside of them. She's speaking of this in Section 16 #txlege#txenergy
First speaker Warren Lasher, System Planning at @ERCOT_ISO
Very interesting slide from @ERCOT_ISO's Warren Lasher. Oil and gas production and processing in the Permian is driving reliability problems and the boom and bust nature of the business makes building transmission to the Permian very difficult.
Note that S. TX is challenged both for export of #wind and #solar & import for reliability when generation is below expected. DFW & Houston are both economic & reliability needs driven by huge population growth. W TX has economic need to get more cheap generation to load centers.
Wayman Smith of @AEPTexas says that the variability of demand (see the green line) is driven by resistance heating.
My words not his: #energyefficiency would help with this!!! If you're only talking about supply, you're only dealing with half the problem!
Asked by commissioners will we have a problem, Smith says much of that depends on demand. Reminder that #energyefficiency programs to replace resistance heat with highly efficient heat pumps can happen very quickly. Transmission takes 6-8 years. Need both, not an either/or.
Sharyland Utilities raising issue that #SB1281 which should speed up much needed transmission isn't due for rulemaking by the @PUCTX until June 2022 with ERCOT implementation after that. Meanwhile transmission constraints limit generation that needs to move in or out of the #RGV.
Finally, Warren Lasher makes the point that insufficient transmission means #renewables trapped in the #RGV without access to other parts of the state drive prices lower, reducing incentive for new generation of all kinds. #txlege#txenergy
Lasher says that #sb1281 requires a look at improving reliability in extreme weather scenarios and says ERCOT will recommend a new reliability line further connecting the #RGV to the rest of the state. Will take ~6 years to get done. #txlege#transmission
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Battery storage just passed 2,000 megawatts deployed for only the 2nd time in ERCOT, reaching a record of 4% of total load served. Prices briefly spiked near the max. No emergency declared despite 30,000 megawatts of gas & coal outages, most of which was unplanned. #txlege
Peak load was only 51,000, nowhere near the April record of 62,000. Reserves briefly dipped below 4,000 nowhere, not particularly close to emergency conditions. To have an emergency, you generally need high demand, high thermal outages, and low wind & solar. Tonight had 2 of 3.
Interestingly, ERCOT posted a notice on Friday of possible tight conditions from Monday 8pm to Wednesday 9pm; the notice did not include tonight. It appears tonight was a bigger risk than the next three days though...
Texans have set an all-time Jan. record w/ 70.9 gigawatts today; tomorrow will likely set the all-time winter record (74GW), except for Uri. ERCOT/PUC called for conservation tomorrow. Key times will be 7-9am Monday and Tuesday. (Note these forecasts bounce around a lot.) 1/🧵
Four major factors contribute to the likelihood of rolling outages: demand, gas supply, gas & coal plant outages, & renewable output. So far, gas supply is down ~9%. It was down ~20% in Uri & about 18% in Elliott (Dec. ‘22) nationally (drops are usually larger in the Permian). 2/
Importantly, gas supply interuptions render gas power plants inoperable. This was one of the biggest problems during Uri & was again during Elliott when 127 gigawatts (!) of thermal generation was offline. This @EENewsUpdates piece is a must read. 3/ eenews.net/articles/flood…
ERCOT asked for 3,000 megawatts ahead of winter and got bids for 11. Their RFP was ill-conceived & poorly designed. ERCOT & the PUCT have received 100s of comments detailing how to get demand reductions at peak times. It is doable. A quick🧵w/ more here: douglewin.com/p/ercot-calcul…
ERCOT’s RFP asked for 6-hour duration demand response in the winter. Would you sign up to have your heat turned off for 6 hours in a winter storm? Yeah, me neither. If they want 6-hour demand reductions, they need energy efficiency. #txlege #txenergy 2/ douglewin.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
After the February winter storm caused outages during session, #txlege passed a bill to increase the energy efficiency goal...
...in 2011. (SB 1125)
Nothing in 2021 or 2023. (The Senate passed a bill to increase goals significantly in SB 258; the House did not advance it.) 3/
PUC meeting is starting now. This is the first Open Meeting since ERCOT called an Emergency Alert during a large frequency drop the evening of September 6. ERCOT will hopefully answer some of the questions I raised here. #txlege #txenergy douglewin.com/p/ercot-has-mo…
I am doing a subscriber chat now. Please join if you can! Instructions on how to join here: douglewin.com/p/subscriber-c…
1) The heat is insane. Climate change is quite real & it’s driving demand up. 2) We waste a lot of energy bc our state’s efficiency goal is very low. 3) We have very little residential demand response in the state.
#Txlege #txenegy 1/
On weekdays, large customers like factories & big box stores reduce their use to avoid transmission charges for the following year. On weekend nights, most of them are closed. We need residential demand response to navigate tight hours like tonight. 2/ douglewin.com/p/texas-has-ne…
Our state’s utility energy efficiency programs are dead last among states with goals. Out of 15 possible points from @ACEEdc on state scorecard, we got 2. We can and must do better. Every bit of energy that isn’t wasted makes it less likely we’ll have outages. #energytwitter 3/