Thread by @RijoMJohn

This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
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https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1416657013862330371

First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
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One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
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science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…

I also showed how bad most Indian states failed to detect actual cases & how Kerala fared far better than all others in detecting a higher proportion of estimated cases.

A bitter pill to swallow, you see. Needless to say, more trolls ensued.
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https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1420358182665285637?s=20

Then, of course, the "justifications" came why the ICMR survey may be under-estimating seroprevalence in Kerala due to high alcohol consumption and tobacco use in Kerala. What is the science behind that, I don't know. Is the claim on substance use right? Let's check.
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This is the latest survey (2019) from the @MSJEGOI
that shows the magnitude of substance abuse in Indian states.

You can see alcohol use prevalence is lower than the national avg. in Kerala & it's below 20 other states in India including UP, MP, & HR (oops!)
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This is the latest Global Adult Tobacco survey- 2019 (@MoHFW_INDIA) that shows the prevalence of tobacco use in Kerala is the 3rd lowest in India & less than half the national avg.

But, hey, who needs data!
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One other contention was on this tweet. What is this "reward" I am talking about? Do states get money from the center for underreporting? That can't be the case. But the rewards come in many ways.
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https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1416657044300468227?s=20

I talked about "rewards" of this kind. The GoI ranks states in terms of their reported case numbers in their Economic survey.

UP, Bihar and Gujarat were the top performers, the states that reported low but had higher seroprevalence in the ICMR survey
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https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1355140789731426311?s=20

One other not so harmful query:
Isn't it ironic that the state that apparently did the best is now the most vulnerable given the high proportion of the susceptible population?

Yes, indeed, until the herd immunity is reached there which will take longer. But that is not all.
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By the time that herd immunity is reached, the state(s) that prolonged the spread for a much longer time would have the least human toll & suffering & vice versa. And they will reach herd immunity with more vaccinations than natural infections.
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As far as the management of #COVID19 goes, #Kerala has only itself to compare as I emphasized in this discussion y'day with @BDUTT. Kerala's mortality rate has marginally increased in this wave compared to the 1st which needs to be improved.
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https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1420801721446457344?s=20

Yet, as a bottom line, the COVID19 mortality in Kerala even now is still 0.5% compared to 1.3% at the national level. But, comparing Kerala with states having relatively inferior healthcare systems is not going to benefit kerala. It must strive to improve further.
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While you are at it, please also listen to an excellent interview with Prof. @GKangInd wherein she voices very similar sentiments as in my original tweets & my article in @TheWireScience.
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