This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL
I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread. 1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.
Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases. 2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey. 3/ science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
I also showed how bad most Indian states failed to detect actual cases & how Kerala fared far better than all others in detecting a higher proportion of estimated cases.
A bitter pill to swallow, you see. Needless to say, more trolls ensued. 4/
Then, of course, the "justifications" came why the ICMR survey may be under-estimating seroprevalence in Kerala due to high alcohol consumption and tobacco use in Kerala. What is the science behind that, I don't know. Is the claim on substance use right? Let's check.
5/
This is the latest survey (2019) from the @MSJEGOI
that shows the magnitude of substance abuse in Indian states.
You can see alcohol use prevalence is lower than the national avg. in Kerala & it's below 20 other states in India including UP, MP, & HR (oops!) 6/
This is the latest Global Adult Tobacco survey- 2019 (@MoHFW_INDIA) that shows the prevalence of tobacco use in Kerala is the 3rd lowest in India & less than half the national avg.
But, hey, who needs data! 7/
One other contention was on this tweet. What is this "reward" I am talking about? Do states get money from the center for underreporting? That can't be the case. But the rewards come in many ways. 8/
One other not so harmful query:
Isn't it ironic that the state that apparently did the best is now the most vulnerable given the high proportion of the susceptible population?
Yes, indeed, until the herd immunity is reached there which will take longer. But that is not all.
/10
By the time that herd immunity is reached, the state(s) that prolonged the spread for a much longer time would have the least human toll & suffering & vice versa. And they will reach herd immunity with more vaccinations than natural infections.
11/
As far as the management of #COVID19 goes, #Kerala has only itself to compare as I emphasized in this discussion y'day with @BDUTT. Kerala's mortality rate has marginally increased in this wave compared to the 1st which needs to be improved. 12/
Yet, as a bottom line, the COVID19 mortality in Kerala even now is still 0.5% compared to 1.3% at the national level. But, comparing Kerala with states having relatively inferior healthcare systems is not going to benefit kerala. It must strive to improve further.
13/
While you are at it, please also listen to an excellent interview with Prof. @GKangInd wherein she voices very similar sentiments as in my original tweets & my article in @TheWireScience. 14/
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.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.
As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts. 1/
The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here. 2/ cgdev.org/publication/th…
The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
3/
Has #Kerala miserably failed in containing #COVID19 pandemic?
This is a question I keep getting from various quarters. This thread is an attempt to explain it. 1/
Using the latest ICMR 3rd sero survey results during Dec 2020, we can see that #Kerala was able to identify & report one in every 5 cases, while all of India was able to identify only 1 in every 28 cases.
It shows the effectiveness of testing strategy used in Kerala 2/
Testing after good tracing & tracking would make it much more effective. This may result in higher TPR, but it's a cost effective use of testing infrastructure
Kerala has not only done nearly double the number of tests per million but it had a much better case detection rate.
3/
1/ An article from @TheEconomist claiming that India's true #covid19 mortality maybe 5-7 times than the reported numbers has really irked GoI so much so @MoHFW_INDIA has now published a rebuttal that is short on substance but abundant on rhetoric.
2/ After using words like "speculative", "misinformed", "unsound" etc. to describe the article, the rebuttal interestingly says "there is no peer-reviewed scientific data available" for some studies used in that report.
I'm glad GoI takes scientific peer review seriously.
3/ Then why has it made claims on the safety & effectiveness of Covaxin without backing up with peer-reviewed scientific data?
What was the peer-reviewed scientific data based on which #Coronil got Ayush Ministry certification?
Data thread on #COVID19Vaccine distribution across Indian states
*Age group:
HCWs & FLWs are among all age groups
Most of the limited supply should ideally go to the 60+ followed by 45-60 until supply is sufficient. Yet, a large chunk is going to 18-45 in some states
1/
There is a considerable gender gap in the distribution of vaccinations in some states
2/
88% of all doses so far were Covishield at the national level, followed by Covaxin. Sputink already distributed in some states such AP, TS, MH, KA, KL, & WB. 3/
1) #Kerala's #COVID19 mortality rate has been consistently increasing over the past month after reaching a low of 0.3%. Still one of the lowest in India.
Total reported #COVID19 deaths are at 10,157, the 10th largest in India.
2) There are concerns of underreporting of deaths with mortality rates being significantly different across districts ranging from 0.1% to 0.8%.
During the 2nd wave from March 18 in KL, the share of total cases from Trivandrum is only 10% while that of deaths is 22%.