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2 Aug, 8 tweets, 5 min read
8/2 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights before we get into the details:

1) A peak for positivity rate???
2) Huge Sunday case dump from Harris Co.
3) Hospitalizations falling further behind vs. 2020
4) 4 total fatalities reported today

1/n
 .
8/2 Positivity Rate:

* Need 2 more days before I'm ready to call anything
* I'm 80% sure Antigen has peaked, 4 straight days of declines
* I'm 50/50 on PCR. Could be the weekend effect. These get revised as test results arrive to the state, which can take a few days.

2/n
 .
8/2 Cases:

Harris dumped over 1600 cases of the 3700 reported today. The 7DMA in 2021 is super jagged due to all the periodic reporting and backlogged case dumping.

2021 is still well ahead of 2020 Summer wave in regards to raw case total.

#casedemic

3/n
8/2 Hospitalizations:

Patients tagged as C19 still only occupying 10% of the beds in the state hospital system, and running behind 2020 by an ever growing amount.

Spitballing, but I'm projecting about 9500 beds and 17% when this peaks in ~2 weeks.

4/n
8/2 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers below are through July 11
* Both 2021 projected and actuals are coming in well below 2020 actuals
* I will be revising 2021 projected tomorrow and almost assuredly downward on virtually every date.

5/n
 .
8/2 Fatalities Part 2:

* 4 reported fatalities
* Reported fatalities the past 7 days up 25% over last week. A rise was expected, based on the hospitalization curve
* But 25% rise is not at all commensurate with rise in hospitalizations
* Fatalities still near all time lows

6/n
8/2 - Primer for background info on Fatality computations and modeling, and why I'm asserting 2021 is not as lethal as 2020...

7/n
 .
8/2: Conclusion:

* Pretty confident Antigen Pos% Rate has peaked. PCR could be
* Once positivity peaks, cases & hospitalizations would follow about 2 weeks behind
* That would line up perfectly with the 2020 wave from 13 months ago
* Its a virus and its virusing #math

8/end

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
2 Aug
8/1 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

#Casedemic continues. Good day for pos% & cases. Hospitalizations continue to track below 2020, and fatalities running increasingly behind 2020.

1/n
Positivity Rate:

Could be the weekend, but both positivity rates show a peak and the start of a decline. Moreso Antigen, but PCR as well. We will watch the next couple of days to see if this solidifies or if its just weekend reporting. Possible good news though.

2/n
.
8/1 Cases:

Better day. Basically the same week over week as last Sunday. So the 7DMA is flat. Still way ahead of 2020 Summer wave pace, however.

If we go by 2020, the case wave will peak in about 17 days. We watch.

3/n
 .
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
31 Jul
7/31 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Casedemic is here. Cases are way ahead of the 2020 Summer Wave pace, while general hospitalizations, ICU, and fatalities are running increasingly behind 2020.

1/n
 .
.
Positivity Rate

Antigen Positivity Rate had a bunch of revisions, but still is trying to crest. PCR Positivity doesn't look to be far behind. Is 20% the magic number, as it has been in 2020 Summer and Winter waves, or will it crest below that?

2/n
 .
.
Cases -

Running way ahead of 2020 pace now. Remember these 2 waves are 13 months apart to the day.

Second day in a row and 3rd out of 4 above 10,000 cases.

#Casedemic and here's why...

3/n
 .
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
30 Jul
7/30 Texas C19 Case, Hospitalization & Fatality Update

THREAD:

This is quickly becoming a Delta Casemedic. Huge Case dumps from Harris & Bexar (again) put case count to 13,000+ today. Now tracking ahead of 2020.

Meanwhile Hosps & Fatalities are tracking behind 2020.

1/n
We will start with Leading Indicator of Positivity rate.

* Antigen Positivity has peaked and is declining.
* PCR Positivity is still climbing.
* Based on history, PCR follows closely behind Antigen, within days, so a peak should be imminent.

Next, cases.

2/n
 . ImageImage
As mentioned in 1/n, huge case dumps in Bexar & Harris, over 6K of the 13K really skewing things. Bexar does just once a week, but did a second one of 2K today.

2021 Summer Cases are running hotter than 2020 now. No way there's not a crap-ton of breakthrough cases.

3/n ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
30 Jul
As mentioned yesterday, 35 reported C19 deaths for the day. The breakdown of those 35 is below as is the main hospitalization over fatalities Chart. The divergence at the far right is due to fatality arrivals to the state, and what appears to be reduced lethality of Delta

1/n
 . ImageImage
How am I making this still very early assertion about Delta's lethality? Several reasons to combine to explain:

1) Per my other daily thread the 2021 summer wave is almost identical thus far to the 2020 summer wave, 13 months apart, from a case & hospitalization perspective

2/n ImageImage
2 days ago, I posted this thread regarding projection of fatality arrivals to the state, the model I built & how the actuals over the 1st week of this project were coming in below projections. Its a solid model built off past Texas reporting.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
28 Jul
Texas C19 Fatality reporting 7/27

Last week I made projections based on how death certs arrive to the state. Projected days 7-28 going back from 7/20. 22 projections. Fatalities are coming in below projections, and divergence from hospitalizations is significant - so far.

1/n
Gonna geek out a little. You have to read this chart & see comments.

Last week I projected 7-28 days back from 7/20, using the arrival estimator. Those projections are now 14-35 days back. 17 of 22 projections in green haven't made or were revised downwards this week.

2/n
Stay with me. So based on my 7/20 projections I projected the graph, showing fatalities starting to rise following the hospitalization curve. Here is what I projected last week vs actual from yesterday (full chart in 1/n)

3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
27 Jul
.
Zero Covid is a failed, impossible, idiotic "strategy"

"Covid-19 was never an existential threat. But we have behaved like it was, racking up trillions in extra debt & trashing norms of liberal democracy that might not quickly, if ever, return."

1/x
aier.org/article/zero-c…
"Future generations will inherit a less free, more embittered society, where vaccination status, attitudes to compulsory masking and lockdowns divide people as much as class and race have before."

2/x

aier.org/article/zero-c…
None of this goes into the models experts have used to advocate Zero Covid. In their models, humans are drones incapable of making their own risk assessments but fortunate to be governed by wise, selfless leaders w/ access to unlimited central bank $

3/x
aier.org/article/zero-c…
Read 4 tweets

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